AHL- Apolyton Hockey League 08/09 (III): The Home Stretch

[notyoueither]

NYE-- what do you think of the Oilers chances to make the playoffs?

I see them as reasonably good-- Minnesota and Dallas are both right on the heels of the Oil but neither of those teams has looked that good lately. Both have goalies that can make a difference though. St Louis? they have been reasonably good in the second half and I have seen them put in some good efforts but there is part of me that rebels at the thought they could be a playoff team-- I'll see them Friday night and assess them a bit more then.

Anaheim?? Hmmmm-- they are still in it and still retain a fair remnant from their cup team-- I would expect them to make a run based on that quality of personnel but I just don't know-- I had earlier pencilled them in as a playoff squad but now its questonable

Probably 40-60 against. A lot of teams looking for 2 spots (3 if the Jackets slide). Inconsistent play by the team as a whole, and doubts about the effort/results any given game night by some should-be important players (Penner, Gilbert) and cold stretches by the 1st line... all say you can't favour them from an objective POV.

From a fan POV, they'll make it. Roli will drag them in by force of will, Hemmer will get back to normal, and the parade will be on a bright, sunny day.

[Ben Kenobi]

Vancouver is "really" 5 points behind Calgary. Not 1. Games in hand are not won games.

Common sense, please

So if Calgary played the rest of their season and won seven, they would be 20 points ahead? I don't think so.

[Ben Kenobi]

Doesn't work so well because of the 3 point games.

You'd have to rate it closer to 0.75 not 0.5

[Flubber]

Ben..........

Vancouver is "really" 5 points behind Calgary. Not 1. Games in hand are not won games.

Common sense, please.

Ditto


Ben I get that the race is reasonably close and with a head to head game later the Canucks might have a shot if they stay hot BUT counting both a game in hand and the head to head as all points for the canucks is unrealistic

Vancouver has to go out and actually win those games

[Flubber]

That was just the first opportunity. Was a tie game until late in the third. I wasn't all that impressed by the Flames play, and I'm not sure Flames folks should take this as a good sign.
.

Well the Stars got only something like 21 shots and very few scoring chances outside a couple of flurries on the PP. Turco played well and turned aside a lot of decent chances-- so a decent enough effort

In better news, Bourque and bertuzzi both skated today-- Bourque has been really god this year and getting him back for the playoffs would be a bood. Bert?? I don't like him nearly as much but he could probably help the PP-- Both are a good waysfrom returning but it was good to hear they skated even if it was brief

The interesting question is who sits when they retrun -- I guess Peters gets sent back down and perhaps Roy sits although he plays well in his few shifts-- Lundmark deserves to stay (11 points in 15 games) and Nystrom is a good role player on the PK

[Flubber]

So if Calgary played the rest of their season and won seven, they would be 20 points ahead? I don't think so.

If Calgary won 7 of their remaining 12 we have no idea where they would rank as against Vancouver. Its ludicrous to assume-- All I would say is that if calgary goes 7-5 then vancouver would need to go 9-3-1 to tie them in points--and tieing in points is not enough as Calgary would have the advantage in wins in that scenario-- so Vancouver would need to go 9-2-2 or better

I realize how close Vancouver is-- but I take a macro look at ALL the remaining games and think caklgary doing 7-5 is pretty realistic-- I actually hope they do a game better or so

[Flubber]

Probably 40-60 against. A lot of teams looking for 2 spots (3 if the Jackets slide). Inconsistent play by the team as a whole, and doubts about the effort/results any given game night by some should-be important players (Penner, Gilbert) and cold stretches by the 1st line... all say you can't favour them from an objective POV.

I understand your thoughts given the number of teams fighting for those two spots ( and I think it will be two as I think Columbus will not drop off enough to fall out of it)

Arguably you have 6 teams with a real chance at those two spots. But Edmonton has both a one point advantage and 1 to two games in hand over their rivals. Sure they even play some of them so using "Ben math" they have a 9 point lead (sorry-couldn't resist)



The others contenders have problems but I guess the issue you see is that only ONE of them needs to get reallly hot to supplant the Oil-- and I agree I haven't seen the OIlers cover themselves with glory either-- wildly inconsistent-- But who knows? maybe Nashvillee will get cold

[Ben Kenobi]

I realize how close Vancouver is-- but I take a macro look at ALL the remaining games and think caklgary doing 7-5 is pretty realistic-- I actually hope they do a game better or so

That's all I'm saying. The canucks are way closer then 5 points would show. Somewhere between 5 and 1 point.

If the Canucks are favoured against Calgary at home, and then favoured against St. Louis at home, then I think they are closer to 1 point behind then 5.

I think 2 points would be a reasonable assessment of the gap between the two, not 5.

[Ben Kenobi]

Only because Calgary has played more games.

[Ben Kenobi]

Still significant.

The most accurate point to gage is when Calgary and Vancouver have played an equal number of games, not when the statistics favour Calgary.

[Ben Kenobi]

3-0 Canucks.

Mason is my new best friend. Go Blues!

[Flubber]

3-0 Canucks.

Mason is my new best friend. Go Blues!

The Canucks were totally bailed out by Luongo-- he looks scary good



Oh and Ben " 5 points back with a game in hand" captured the situation perfectly. Now it is simply "3 points"-- To say it is "1 point" because vancouver will inevitably win a home game against the Flames is just silly

[Flubber]

NYE

I want to thank your Oilers-- IN a week in which my sv % is weak, they threw 8 by my opponent's Peter Budaj. If I win sv%, this night will have been huge for that

[Ben Kenobi]

Saying it's 5 points without noting the game in hand is garbage.

Games in hand are very important.

The Canucks are closer to 1 point, then they are to 5, and Flames fans should understand.

[Flubber]

[QUOTE=Ben Kenobi;5555565]Saying it's 5 points without noting the game in hand is garbage.

QUOTE]

Probably the reason I said

Oh and Ben " 5 points back with a game in hand" captured the situation perfectly

Its moot for the moment as its now 3 points even-- After tonight it will again be something with a game in hand-- I don't know why you find the concept so difficult and need to artificially change it-- Whether Vancouver catches the Flames later or not, your way of expressing things is quite artificial and forced