AHL- Apolyton Hockey League 08/09 (III): The Home Stretch

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben, you epic moron.

Langkow was the Flames' #1 centre. Bertuzzi frequently also played on the top line with Iginla.

Only after the Flames acquired Jokinen did the Flames have a #1 line without injuries again, with Langkow being bumped to the second line.

It would be similar to the Canucks losing Kesler.

You're wrong. First of all, the Flames won 4 of 6 games last year when Iginla was out. Second of all, take a look at the stats for Flames forwards. Iginla is in the lead, but just barely. The Flames have a very stacked offense right now, one that outscores Vancouver's significantly, and this is from depth. As I've said, the Flames will have 3 30+ goal scorers, while Vancouver has how many?

The Canucks have 3 lines that score. While their offense is not as good as Calgary's they have a much, much better defense.

You're very much right though -- Vancouver IS a one-man team. Without Luongo, they are nothing. With Luongo, they are a playoff bubble team. Congratulations? He does make a big difference though.

Playoff bubble? If you do the simulations, they have about a 99 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, about the same as Calgary.

Oh, he is useless. I never said he was your saviour. But I did say the reason he was acquired was BECAUSE your team lacked depth -- they NEEDED help, anything they could get, so they had to GROSSLY overpay for Sundin.

As opposed to grossly overpaying for Jokinen this year and for quite some time? Sundin's contract expires next season.

Luongo is the only reason the Canucks are higher than Edmonton right now in the standings. It's the biggest one-man team in the NHL right now, which is precisely why when Luongo was out the Canucks dropped from a clear #1 lead in the division to being out of the playoffs.

No different then if Kippersoft or Iginla were injured for 6 weeks.


Quote:
Iginla scratching a pinky and missing a shift is about as significant as those injuries you've mentioned.

Again, Ben, if you would kindly remove your head from your ass and look at the statistics you'll see that Iginla isn't the only one scoring on the Flames right now. Not even close.

If you actually watch hockey sometimes or pay attention to the league outside of what you read in the Vancouver Province, you'll see the Flames have a lot of hot scorers these days. Iginla had a dismal stretch of 19(?) games where he scored only one goal fairly recently. And they won the vast majority of games in that timeframe.

Ben, you are hilariously ignorant about everything. Genuinely, a huge accomplishment. Most people can at least get something right by accident. You can't even do basic arithmetic. At your age...

[Ben Kenobi]

LOL! Going by point production alone, that would be true -- it'd be like the Canucks losing a top 3 forward. Which is exactly my point, you douche.

Langkow brings A LOT more than Kesler to the table, though. He's one of the best two-way forwards in the league (do you even know what that means?)

Kesler is far better then Langkow as a selke candidate.

They demonstrably do not. In either category.

Points for:

Calgary 215
Canucks 193

Points against
Canucks 178
Calgary 198.

Canucks defense > Calgary Defence, while Calgary offence > Canuck Offense.

Calgary has a slight advantage in point differential, about 8 percent when you take into account their games in hand.

Means in a game in a neutral location, you'd expect Calgary to win roughly 54 percent of the time. Over a 6 game series, you'd expect it to be split 3-3 going into a game seven.

So does Jokinen, you epic ****ing moron.
Jokinen's cap hit for the Flames this year: 1.129 mil, next year: 5.375 million. He's only under contract for this year and next.
Sundin's cap hit this year: 5.363.

So Calgary is playing Jokinen for next year, whereas the Canucks aren't on the hook for anything beyond this year.

But the big thing is Salary. Vancouver is paying Mats Sundin 8.6 million dollars this season. Calgary is paying Jokinen just over 1 million dollars this season. And you have the balls to say CALGARY is overpaying?

Yes. The Canucks have over 9 million dollars in cap space, which otherwise would not get spent at all. They got the player they wanted at a price of a little more then half they expected to pay him. Calgary decided to screw themselves next year by their back-loaded contract.

Oh, and in case you missed it, if the Canucks win against LA, and Calgary loses to Detroit, the Canucks will be in control of the NW division again. 6 points back, 2 games in hand and a game against Calgary at home.

Calgary's chance for holding onto the division, assuming that each team plays the way they have played so far is now down to 63 percent. If the Canucks win tonight, it's down to 55 percent.

[snoopy369]

When do they play games in a neutral location exactly?

[Ben Kenobi]

Sadly for Calgary they don't. Last game between the two is going to be in Vancouver.

[Sparrowhawk]

Flubber, did you happen to follow our Auction league battle this week? I didn't check every day, but at one point I was beating you 6-0, then later in the week you were beating me 6-1, and I see I ended out winning 6-3. Not sure how it happened, pleasant surprize to see that I won the week, but curious if you followed closer then I did as to how many categories we were actually battling for

[action=Sparrowhawk][/action]

[Flubber]

Flubber, did you happen to follow our Auction league battle this week? I didn't check every day, but at one point I was beating you 6-0, then later in the week you were beating me 6-1, and I see I ended out winning 6-3. Not sure how it happened, pleasant surprize to see that I won the week, but curious if you followed closer then I did as to how many categories we were actually battling for

[action=Sparrowhawk][/action]

I have no idea-- Real life has been so busy that I frequently have neglected to set my lineup- I think in one of my leagues I only got 2 goalie games in due to this and that might have reversed some categories that I was "leading"-- I hadn't even seen the final results until now

I'm off to bed in a minute but will check tomorrow and set my lineups for the rest of the week

[Flubber]

By the way, that whole scenario doesn't make sense with the basics either. Calgary plays Jersey before they play Detroit...

and lost-- but it was a better effort and seemed to have been foiled by Brodeur

Asher I do get how a trailing team COULD control a division-- If they trailed the Flames by three and had two extra games in hand for instance. But trailing by eight?? The best Ben can realistically say is that if the Canucks win x number in a row while Calgary loses x games, the canucks would control the division-- But right now its premature to talk about control

Calgary has lost a few in a row. I actually think Vancouver will lose a few as well-- I have seen a lot of hockey and while teams win at .750 clips for a while it is pretty rare to maintain it over longer periods So while Calgary has blown some opportunities to salt away the divisional race , I simply think its unreasonable to expect that Vancouver will only lose 3 or 4 of their remaining games-- Its certainlly possibly I just don't see it as likely-- I also don't think the Flames will continue to falter in a big way

The reality for the Flames is if they can just go .500 over their remaining schedule- Vancouver needs to be amazing down the stretch-- Also calgary can afford to lose their remaining game against Vancouver if they do reasonably well otherwise-- As we sit here now-- The Canucks absolutely have to win that one.

The race isn't over by any stretch but the Flames are fundamentally a good team. They have some flaws but they are still a good team. If Kipper goes back to his superlative performances of last month--watch out-- Even if kipper is just reasonably good, I think its a team that can and will perform at a .600 pace down the stretch until the division is clinched


Oh and Asher-- this goes back a lot of posts but Giordano was and is not a top 4 d-man with the Flames-- his pairing with Phaneuf was an early season disaster and he has mainly been a number 6 guy with some PP time since. Check his TOI in the weeks before his injury-- Both Pardy and Sarich got more

Oh and Ben-- you have said too many crazy things to address and Asher has addressed most of them with his usual style I have a little more time these days so perhaps I'll pick a few .

take care all

[Flubber]

So, Ben...while Vancouver is busy losing to non-playoff teams like LA and Anaheim,

muwahahahaha-- lovely when a team gets only 1 point from two games to immediately make a comment of ben's bite him in the rump-- Those 'non-playoff " teams are still reasonably good and they can trample you if you are not careful-- heck 13th place LA is only 5 points from a playoff spot so they are NOT giving up yet-- It may actually be a DISadvantage to paly those teams instead of one that has their spot sewn up

Calgary is now 9 points ahead of Vancouver. CONTROL OF THE DIVISION.

LOVE IT


So the math is ever tougher for the Canucks. If the Flames play at .500 the rest of the way, they would get to 100 points. For the canucks to get to 100 they need to go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. Possible I guess but I still think its more likely that the Flames exceed .500 than Vancouver is to attain this mark

I do see Van as a playoff team BUT they are still not out of the woods. Even a short losing sterak and they could be fighting for their life. But as I say , I see them making the playoffs-- after that-- it could get wild for them as I see Luongo as the type of guy that can truly steal a series. Interesting how the conferences differ in that Vancouvers point total place OUT of the playoffs in the east. But the east has more REALLY weak teams which tends to inflate the points of the good teams by an additional 6-8 points

The Flames?? I see them too often to be not aware of their faults but for the first time in a few years they have assembled a team where I am not heading into the playoffs with mainly hopes and not much real expectations-- They are not super-elite yet-- far too inconsistent-- but this squad is one that should go much further than the last few years and has the potential to contend for the cup-- They will obviously need Kipper on his game and for the first time in years they have enough depth to play with some of the best teams around

[mrboo123]

Well, the playoffs in bot leagues are starting, and I actually made the playoffs for the 1st time ever! In both leagues!

[notyoueither]

Good going, Boo.

Things were very, very close right down to the wire.

Week 23
Rank   Team                W-L-T    Pct Pts Last Week  Wv Mvs
*1. Road Kill             99-62-23  .601 221  7-0-1     9  23 
*2. Derelique My Balls   100-65-19  .595 219  2-6-0    11  14 
*3. Flubber's Folly       94-65-25  .579 213  6-2-0     4  53 
*4. Ice Hawks             89-60-35  .579 213  4-4-0     6   3 
*5. The Pantless Pirates  90-68-26  .560 206  3-5-0    12  26 
*6. Haunted House Boos    83-67-34  .543 200  6-0-2     3   9 
7.  Blaine's Bruisers     87-75-22  .533 196  4-4-0    10   3 
8.  Malicious Pacifists   84-74-26  .527 194  5-3-0     5  19 
9.  Matthew Modines       78-78-28  .500 184  8-0-0    13  15 
10. Calamitous Intent     71-88-25  .454 167  0-6-2     1   9 
11. Televised Hawks       64-90-30  .429 158  0-7-1     8   4 
12. Kanadiens             61-93-30  .413 152  2-4-2     2   - 
13. CrONoS_QC             61-100-23 .394 145  4-2-2    14   2 
14. Siddiqui Storm        42-118-24 .293 108  0-8-0     7   1 


Week 22
Rank   Team                W-L-T     Pct Pts Last Week Wv Mvs
*1. Derelique My Balls    98-59-19  .611 215  5-1-2    11  14 
*2. Road Kill             92-62-22  .585 206  4-3-1     9  23 
*3. Ice Hawks             85-56-35  .582 205  6-1-1     6   3 
4.  Flubber's Folly       88-63-25  .571 201  1-7-0     4  49 
5.  The Pantless Pirates  87-63-26  .568 200  7-1-0    12  26 
6.  Blaine's Bruisers     83-71-22  .534 188  5-3-0    10   3 
7.  Haunted House Boos    77-67-32  .528 186  3-4-1     3   9 
8.  Malicious Pacifists   79-71-26  .523 184  5-2-1     5  18 
9.  Matthew Modines       70-78-28  .477 168  1-6-1    13  15 
10. Calamitous Intent     71-82-23  .469 165  2-5-1     1   9 
11. Televised Hawks       64-83-29  .446 157  3-3-2     8   4 
12. Kanadiens             59-89-28  .415 146  3-5-0     2   - 
13. CrONoS_QC             57-98-21  .384 135  3-3-2    14   2 
14. Siddiqui Storm        42-110-24 .307 108  1-5-2     7   1 


Week 21
Rank   Team                W-L-T     Pct Pts Last Week Wv Mvs
1.  Derelique My Balls    93-58-17  .604 203  6-2-0    11  14 
2.  Flubber's Folly       87-56-25  .592 199  5-2-1     4  49 
3.  Road Kill             88-59-21  .586 197  2-4-2     9  23 
4.  Ice Hawks             79-55-34  .571 192  2-6-0     6   3 
5.  The Pantless Pirates  80-62-26  .554 186  5-2-1    12  26 
6.  Haunted House Boos    74-63-31  .533 179  4-2-2     3   8 
7.  Blaine's Bruisers     78-68-22  .530 178  4-3-1    10   3 
8.  Malicious Pacifists   74-69-25  .515 173  4-2-2     5  18 
9.  Matthew Modines       69-72-27  .491 165  3-4-1    13  15 
10. Calamitous Intent     69-77-22  .476 160  2-5-1     1   9 
11. Televised Hawks       61-80-27  .443 149  7-1-0     8   4 
12. Kanadiens             56-84-28  .417 140  1-7-0     2   - 
13. CrONoS_QC             54-95-19  .378 127  2-4-2    14   2 
14. Siddiqui Storm        41-105-22 .310 104  2-5-1     7   1

[Kontiki]

Quite literally down to the wire. I packed it in at about 10:00 pm Eastern on Sunday night with a couple of games still on and checked the StatTracker before I went to bed. Flubber was up 3-2 on me, so clearly a bunch of ties. By the time those games ended, he won it 6-2 and gave nye the regular season title.

Congrats, nye.

At least I ran away with the Auction regular season.

[Ben Kenobi]

Listen, Ben. Calgary has more wins. Calgary has more points. Calgary has a higher goal differential.

Calgary has lower goal differential.

229 -214 vs
206 -189

As for points we shall see whether their lead holds up. Calgary is the most overrated division leader, even Washington has a better goal differential.

Means in a seven game series, Calgary wins.

Yep, but now, it's just the reverse. 7th game would be 55-45 Canucks.

How the **** is Jokinen's contract back-loaded? It's balanced, it varies by 250k per year! You ****ing ******, Ben, I swear to God...

3.5 million vs 0.

Canucks win

Vancouver is 8 points back of Calgary. If they won against LA (which they didn't, they just lost), they'd be 6 points back of Calgary. If Calgary loses to Detroit, the Canucks are still 6 points back of Calgary (assuming they won the game vs LA, which they didn't). In no way does that constitute "controlling" the division...

Having control over the division means that no matter what you do, your opponents can't catch up to you. If there is a difference of less then two points (after accounting for all the games in hand), then both Calgary and Vancouver split control over their division, because either one of them has control over their own destiny. If Vancouver leads by 3 or more, they have control, and if Calgary leads by 3 or more, then Calgary has control.

Right now, they lead by 5, with one game against vancouver, and the canucks have one game in hand. This means that Calgary retains control over the division by 1 point. Even if the Canucks were to win all their games, Calgary can still win the division.

If they lose their next game, then the Canucks have 2 games in hand, and 1 game against the flames. If the Canucks were to win all their games, Calgary could not beat the Canucks. If Calgary were to win all their games, the Canucks could not catch them, so there would be no control over the division, and it would be split between the Canucks and Calgary.

[Ben Kenobi]

7 goals in 6 games for Jokinen = 1.17 goals per game as a Flame
8 goals in 26 games for Sundin = 0.31 goals per game as a Canuck

Edit: Actually, Jokinen just completed his hattrick.

8 goals in 6 games for Jokinen = 1.33 goals per game as a Flame

Sounds like a mastercard commercial.

scoring a hattrick against the leafs, 30,000 dollars
signing a contract with the division leading flames = 3.5 million dollars.

Kiprusoff letting in 8 goals in a game = priceless.

[Ben Kenobi]

muwahahahaha-- lovely when a team gets only 1 point from two games to immediately make a comment of ben's bite him in the rump-- Those 'non-playoff " teams are still reasonably good and they can trample you if you are not careful-- heck 13th place LA is only 5 points from a playoff spot so they are NOT giving up yet-- It may actually be a DISadvantage to paly those teams instead of one that has their spot sewn up

Considering that Toronto just pasted the Flames, that made my day. Canucks are right back where they were. 5 points behind the Flames, still a game in hand. They are a point better then before they played LA, when they were 8 points behing the flames with 2 games in hand.

Only problem is if they have enough games left to make up the one point.

So the math is ever tougher for the Canucks. If the Flames play at .500 the rest of the way, they would get to 100 points. For the canucks to get to 100 they need to go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games. Possible I guess but I still think its more likely that the Flames exceed .500 than Vancouver is to attain this mark

If we assume that each team plays the way they do, Calgary has a 73/27 percent split of the division with the Canucks. Pretty good odds that they will hold.

I do see Van as a playoff team BUT they are still not out of the woods. Even a short losing sterak and they could be fighting for their life.

I'd take that bet, 10-1 that the Canucks make the playoffs.

The Flames?? I see them too often to be not aware of their faults but for the first time in a few years they have assembled a team where I am not heading into the playoffs with mainly hopes and not much real expectations-- They are not super-elite yet-- far too inconsistent-- but this squad is one that should go much further than the last few years and has the potential to contend for the cup-- They will obviously need Kipper on his game and for the first time in years they have enough depth to play with some of the best teams around

On the Front end, they have the 2nd/3rd best offense. On the back end they have the worst defense in the conference. They will be one and done in the playoffs.

[Ben Kenobi]

I like how you wait to post this until it becomes true. The Flames have gotten blown out for a few games in a row (6+ GA in each game), then you finally reply. Then when you finally do, they differ by 2.

Considering I predicted it before, I am pleased to see my prognostications come true. Calgary is by far the weakest division leader and now everyone smells blood in the water.

You were very fortunate to escape with a win against Detroit. If you had lost, you would be 3 points up, the Canucks have a game in hand.

Seeing as you demonstrably don't watch any hockey games, you can't make this call.

Where the **** did you get this number? That is not Jokinen's salary nor cap hit. And yes, Sundin is a zero. You're still paying Sundin more this year than Calgary will pay for Jokinen this year and next year.

The Canucks had 10 million to burn this year, which is why they can afford to get top notch talent, without affecting their bottom line two years from now.

Don't get me wrong, Jokinen is a good player, but he is completely the wrong player for the Flames. They need the talent in the back end. What is the point of getting 5 points a game, if you still lose to the bottom feeders of the league? Calgary should be embarassed when the leafs destroyed them.

The Canucks do not win by signing a 38 year old player with crap output for $10M!

They seem to have found the winning formula.

Demitra+Sundin+Kesler
Sedin+Sedin+Burrows

Pretty good top 6 for a 'defensive' team that is 5th in the conference for scoring.

Now that you've defined the word, it should be clear Vancouver cannot, literally, ever control the division this season. Ergo, you were stupid and wrong.

If Calgary loses, and the Canucks don't play, that means Calgary cannot catch the Canucks, if the Canucks win all of their games. They will split control for the first time, since Calgary passed the Canucks earlier this season.

Thanks for keeping the seat warm, though. It will be nice and toasty.