AHL- Apolyton Hockey League 08/09 (III): The Home Stretch

[Ben Kenobi]

If what you're saying is true, that Calgary has the worst defense in the conference...and Calgary is third in the conference, the offense must be the best to offset such apparently horrid defense.

Which raises the question as to how Calgary is doing so well despite playing so poorly? They aren't a powerhouse like San Jose or Detroit.

As for Calgary's defense.

Calgary's defense = Phaneuf playing for 55 minutes a game. Colorado doesn't have a Phaneuf anymore but they do have some young and up and comers. They make mistakes, but they are getting better. You better hope somebody doesn't so much as breath on Phaneuf.

[Flubber]

Only problem is if they have enough games left to make up the one point.

I love how 5 points becomes one just like that-- You seem to assume Vancouver wins every game.

Dallas wil have a big say in this race immediately-- Tonight they are in Van and tomorrow here--

If we assume that each team plays the way they do, Calgary has a 73/27 percent split of the division with the Canucks. Pretty good odds that they will hold.

Those odds seem about right to me

I'd take that bet, 10-1 that the Canucks make the playoffs.

No bet-- I have liked the Nucks to make the playoffs for some time and since I wrote that, they have stretched things out to an 8 point lead on the 9th place team. It now would take a pretty remarkeable collaspse for the Canucks to miss the playoffs

On the Front end, they have the 2nd/3rd best offense. On the back end they have the worst defense in the conference. They will be one and done in the playoffs.

The defense has issues but once Leopold gets reintegrated well into the top 4, I think they have the potential to be good enough-- not stellar by any means but good enough

[Flubber]

You were very fortunate to escape with a win against Detroit. If you had lost, you would be 3 points up, the Canucks have a game in hand.

and if my aunt had a penise she would be my uncle

[Flubber]

Don't get me wrong, Jokinen is a good player, but he is completely the wrong player for the Flames. They need the talent in the back end. What is the point of getting 5 points a game, if you still lose to the bottom feeders of the league? Calgary should be embarassed when the leafs destroyed them.

I HATE when the Flames blow a game to an inferior team and no offense Leafs fans but the Leafs overall are an inferior team this year. They are however streaky and young so they can be dangerous-- and when the Flames play crappy defense in front of a suddenly struggling Kipper-- the result is obvious

But this is a team I believe in-- I think they will rebound and play .600 hockey down the stretch

[Flubber]

As for Calgary's defense.

Calgary's defense = Phaneuf playing for 55 minutes a game. Colorado doesn't have a Phaneuf anymore but they do have some young and up and comers. They make mistakes, but they are getting better. You better hope somebody doesn't so much as breath on Phaneuf.

wow-- I hate to repeat asher but do you watch hockey at all? Phaneuf has taken a decided step backward this year--particularly on his defensive play. I know you were exagerrating but I would much rather see Phaneuf go out than Regehr- Regehr is much more likely to be the shut down type guy you need in the playoffs. Phaneuf's 42 points are nice but the guy is also a MINUS 10 (regehr is PLUS 13) and his icetime is more in the 24-28 minute range. Phaneuf still is the number one minutes guy because I think the coaches love his physical skills and really want to get a lot out of him but frankly he has often not performed as a number one guy

My hope is Phaneuf tightens up defensively in the playoffs but if he doesn't, I think Regehr can step it up, Leopold will be fine and sarich can do ok defensively as well-- Don't get me wrong-- its not a great defense, but its far better than last year's

[Flubber]

Quite literally down to the wire. I packed it in at about 10:00 pm Eastern on Sunday night with a couple of games still on and checked the StatTracker before I went to bed. Flubber was up 3-2 on me, so clearly a bunch of ties. By the time those games ended, he won it 6-2 and gave nye the regular season title.

Congrats, nye.

At least I ran away with the Auction regular season.

Good for NYE-- I was glad to see that I managed to knock off Kontiki although I wasn't following this one that closely this week. I knew I made the playoffs and also knew I couldn't crack the top 2 so the result was essentially moot. I did finish second in my other two pools though.



Overall I was pleased with my year. I had hoped for more but when Nabby went down twice for moderate periods, it cost me. Injuries are part of things though and I only hope my guys can play well enough this week to get me in the top 4

[Ben Kenobi]

I love how 5 points becomes one just like that-- You seem to assume Vancouver wins every game.

Won't happen. Canucks will give up a few. The split is now 62/38 for the Flames for the division title. Still very good odds that their point totals will hold up. All they need is to play 600 hockey from here on out, and that will be enough to see them through, even with a Vancouver charge. Vancouver has a 6 game road trip coming up that I hope they will be able to go 3 and 3.

The problem is if the Flames drop below 600 or 8 of 14.

As for watching the Flames, I don't watch many Flames games, except when they play Vancouver. Never claimed to be a Flames expert.

This is already the fifth best Canuck team ever with them poking their head above 600 again. If they keep winning, they will be the third best ever, behind the 2002-4 squads.

Calgary needs 2 more wins to effectively clinch, and Vancouver needs 4.

[Flubber]

Calgary needs 2 more wins to effectively clinch, and Vancouver needs 4.

I actually understood you until this post. I don't see how Calgary clinches anything with two more wins or Vancouber with 4 unless those are numbers of wins for that team WITH a LOSS by the other (and even then its not clinched)

Kudos to vancouver for making it tight but I think that Calgary still should win the division-- Its still totally uncertain of course (the reason we watch!!) BUT

1. Calgary has two more home games down the stretch AND still has a 3 point lead (scant compared to what it was but again Kudos to Vancouver as their 7-2-1 stretch gained them 5 points in the last 10 games while the Flames were 5-5)
2. Vancouver inevitably should falter-- sometimes a team doesn't but USUALLY a team that has had a really really hot streak goes the other way a bit. I don't expect a collapse but even a 5-5 stretch might see them lose ground. Vancouver does have a fair number of currently "non-playoff" teams on their schedule but hell last night Phoenix beat san Jose so you can't ever count on an easy two points.
3, Calgary has had a medicore stretch so the team and Kipper are due to get a little hot-- The schedule has some good tests and for some strange reason the Flames have had more trouble with the weak sisters lately (losses to Tampa, Atlanta and Toronto) while doing better against the tougher teams


Could Calgary collapse and Vancouver surge? sure! Could the opposite happen? Again totally possible!! But most teams have some ups and downs and I expect a bit of a calgary rebound plus a little cooling by the canucks

[Ben Kenobi]

I actually understood you until this post. I don't see how Calgary clinches anything with two more wins or Vancouber with 4 unless those are numbers of wins for that team WITH a LOSS by the other (and even then its not clinched)

Effectively clinched is a bit different.

If Calgary wins just 2 games over the rest of the season, they have a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs. If Vancouver wins just 4 games over the rest of the season they have a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The percentages change quite dramatically if they win fewer.

1. Calgary has two more home games down the stretch AND still has a 3 point lead (scant compared to what it was but again Kudos to Vancouver as their 7-2-1 stretch gained them 5 points in the last 10 games while the Flames were 5-5)
2. Vancouver inevitably should falter-- sometimes a team doesn't but USUALLY a team that has had a really really hot streak goes the other way a bit. I don't expect a collapse but even a 5-5 stretch might see them lose ground. Vancouver does have a fair number of currently "non-playoff" teams on their schedule but hell last night Phoenix beat san Jose so you can't ever count on an easy two points.
3, Calgary has had a medicore stretch so the team and Kipper are due to get a little hot-- The schedule has some good tests and for some strange reason the Flames have had more trouble with the weak sisters lately (losses to Tampa, Atlanta and Toronto) while doing better against the tougher teams

I'm most worried about number 2, that the Canucks will cool off some. They have played well, but they have a long road trip coming up. They should do well, but lately they've played far better at home then away.

[-Jrabbit]

The Blackhawks are stalled, running on fumes.

[notyoueither]

Young team. There will be ups and downs.

[Flubber]

The Blackhawks are stalled, running on fumes.

They will be fine-- I don't expect a Cup win from them this year though-- usually a team needs a year or two of adversity in the playoffs before making a deep run. They look to me like a team that could be a problem to play-- I don't know that I would love to face them in the playoffs

[Flubber]

Hey Ben

Last night demonstrates the problem for Vancouver-- Now its a 5 point gap with that game in hand again-- Its still a tight enough race but if the Flames get at all hot . . ..



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Last night I thought the Flames had a much better effort against a game but undermanned (too mnay of their best are injured) Stars team. The Stars put up a good effort and blocked a LOT of shots but were outplayed pretty much throughout

The Flames pairings were

AuCoin-Regehr
Phaneuf- VandeMeer
Sarich-Leopold
and they all seemed to get reasonable icetime (low of 15:35 for VanderMeer to a high of 24:15 for AuCoin) --

I was surprised a little to see vanderMeer with Phaneuf but he is generally solid and tough and takes care of the defensive side of things despite the fact that he is not blessed with an overabundance of speed--

So the Flames proved they copuld play a good defensive game against a team that was missing most of its offensive weapons . The key will be to continue good tight play when facing the better teams

[Flubber]

NYE-- what do you think of the Oilers chances to make the playoffs?

I see them as reasonably good-- Minnesota and Dallas are both right on the heels of the Oil but neither of those teams has looked that good lately. Both have goalies that can make a difference though. St Louis? they have been reasonably good in the second half and I have seen them put in some good efforts but there is part of me that rebels at the thought they could be a playoff team-- I'll see them Friday night and assess them a bit more then.

Anaheim?? Hmmmm-- they are still in it and still retain a fair remnant from their cup team-- I would expect them to make a run based on that quality of personnel but I just don't know-- I had earlier pencilled them in as a playoff squad but now its questonable

[Ben Kenobi]

Last night demonstrates the problem for Vancouver-- Now its a 5 point gap with that game in hand again-- Its still a tight enough race but if the Flames get at all hot . . ..

That was just the first opportunity. Was a tie game until late in the third. I wasn't all that impressed by the Flames play, and I'm not sure Flames folks should take this as a good sign.

Next game has another crack at it. Canucks are still really a point behind, with the game in hand and the game against Calgary to come. We play St. Louis again on Thursday, so Calgary has to keep up the pace.

The chance for the Canucks to pass Calgary will come on the 23rd when you folks play the Red Wings.

We play Blues/Coyotes/Stars/Blues/Avalanche over our next 5.

Calgary has:

Blues/Red Wings/Penguins/Blue Jackets

If the Canucks and Calgary both win all their games or have the same number of losses, that will put them only 3 points behind again. If Calgary loses one more then the Canucks, that puts them at 1.