Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

A 21 year old air natl guardsman? How did he get CIA documents camping out on a military base? Anyway, aside from the big story about the WH lying to us about their disastrous war and even under oath to Congress... The other big story is the NYT & Wapo might have hunted the leaker down and helped the FBI arrest him.

Probably doing an active duty stint.

[Berzerker]

A 21 year old air natl guardsman? How did he get CIA documents camping out on a military base? Anyway, aside from the big story about the WH lying to us about their disastrous war and even under oath to Congress... The other big story is the NYT & Wapo might have hunted the leaker down and helped the FBI arrest him.

[Dinner]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/04/13/politics/us-government-intel-leak/index.html

Yep, the leaked was a 21 year old air national guard member out of Massachusetts. Apparently, he will now have less time to play Minecraft.

[JohnT]

"Our words are backed by nuclear weapons!"

"Yeah, but do they work?"

"..."

[Uncle Sparky]

Putin keep losing playing Stalin on Prince level.

[BeBMan]

Meh, as far as I have figured out, then all the leaked material is a bit old and obsolete, so considering the war, it has no influence. The real headache is that someone in the US system apparently have had access to something and sent it out on some minecraft site - maybe US should strengthen their security a bit

I think that's just a sophisticated CIA coverup story for the fact that they retrieved Putin's Laptop, and now know all his Steam achievements

[Thoth]

One has to wonder what understanding Putin had of the real state of his military before he invaded. Hopefully the "no limits" partnership with China will include sharing Russian corruption techniques.

Perun has a couple of excellent videos on corruption and the culture of lying in the Russian military. Well wroth the listen IMO.

https://youtu.be/i9i47sgi-V4

https://youtu.be/Fz59GWeTIik

TLDW: In between a culture of corruption, vranyo, and the inherent tendency of authoritarian power structures to become disinformation networks as superiors get told what the subordinate thinks they want to hear, I think it is safe to say that Putin had no clue just how bad things were with the Russian military or how strong an opposition they were likely to face in Ukraine.

[BlackCat]

Meh, as far as I have figured out, then all the leaked material is a bit old and obsolete, so considering the war, it has no influence. The real headache is that someone in the US system apparently have had access to something and sent it out on some minecraft site - maybe US should strengthen their security a bit

[PLATO]

Maybe the janitor from Mar-a-lago gave them to him????

[Dauphin]

My defense would be Trump (or sitting President) told me (s)he'd think about declassifying the records, hence I thought that meant they were declassified.

[PLATO]

So who is responsible to watch the people who have access to secrets like this?

[ZEE]

And here I thought I used to be an arrogant person...

But posting government secrets on Discord and not expecting them to get out? Wow!

[Dauphin]

How or why they got to see unencrypted data, is another question. But access itself seems plausible.

[Dauphin]

I read somewhere that they are 'cyber transit' specialists, responsible for keeping the force’s communication network running.

https://www.102iw.ang.af.mil/

[pchang]

Can anyone explain to me why an Air National Guardsman in Massachusetts has a need to know about operational things in Ukraine?