Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[N35t0r]

And they blew up their own pipeline... Stop hitting yourself Marcia. I dont have to guess, Ukraine has been shelling civilians for nearly a decade. But thats so nice of them, sending drones to save people. I would expect them to send drones to attack Russian survivors. Russia will need to divert resources to provide that opposition along the river. I dont see the upside for Russia, they've been wanting Ukraine to attack their defenses so a flood wipes them out instead. A Russian general withdrew from Kherson a while back because the dam was a potential target and he knew that could trap his soldiers in the city. One analyst said evidence of surreptitious warning and movement of people might identify whodunit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/russian-forces-accused-of-blocking-flood-evacuation-efforts

Also, it's very funny that you think it's ridiculous for Russia to have blown up a pipeline they weren't using, but it makes sense for Ukraine to blow up a dam in their own country.

And in case you haven't been paying attention, Russia has been using missiles and drones to target civilian buildings since the start of the war. The UN estimates less than 4k civilian casualties in the 2014-2022 period (combined pro-separatist and pro-ukranian), whereas they estimate over 9k civilian casualties since the Russian invasion (of which less than 10% were in the separatist territories. But sure, uKrAiNe NaZiS aRe TaRgEtTiNg CiViLiAnS.

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/XlrUkIRCSWI

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/_99lNmlQ3Rs

[Berzerker]

Now Berz is going to tell us that Ukraine blew up MH17

Washington-Kiev was bombing the Donbas with aircraft so people used AA from arsenals and mistook the airliner for an attacker.

[Dinner]

I was surprised Ukraine had their tanks all bunched up instead of properly spread out.

https://youtu.be/N85cRT5JWvc

[Berzerker]

They wouldn't wait until more forces were crossing the river because one of the first things that they would do is contest the dam and remove the charges, I'd say. At least if I was Ukraine, I would do that.

Russia has also been taking troops away from the Kherson region for the past couple of months to send to more active areas of the front, perhaps they decided that sacrificing empty fortifications was an acceptable tradeoff to shutting off that front for the near future (if not more).
Now minefields have been washed away and spread all over the place, infrastructure destroyed and the river channel completely altered, so any crossing of the lower Dnipro would be considerably harder than it was before (once the reservoir finishes emptying, right now it's downright impossible).

Regarding the dam level, Russia was in control of the dam, so they could have let more water through to avoid it filling up. Late winter snowmelt and spring rains (and the associated mud season) also mean that higher flow rates into the reservoir for the past couple of months are to be expected, not nefarious Ukrainians trying to destroy their own country.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine needed mines to blow the dam and if my plan was to flood an attacking force I'd wait for them to get in the path. Is there any evidence Ukraine was about to launch an attack from that area? Russia withdrew from Kherson for fear of a dam break isolating troops in the city and they've been building fortifications to the east. I saw video of Russians wading thru the flood waters so it wasn't empty fortifications... Now if there was a mass evacuation of troops that would make Russia look guilty. The report on dams I saw was about more water released up river, analysis should show anything unusual about it but if both sides saw profit in blowing the dam then both would want more water. The reservoir fed Crimea's crops, Russia didn't blow the dam.

[Berzerker]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/russian-forces-accused-of-blocking-flood-evacuation-efforts

Also, it's very funny that you think it's ridiculous for Russia to have blown up a pipeline they weren't using, but it makes sense for Ukraine to blow up a dam in their own country.

And in case you haven't been paying attention, Russia has been using missiles and drones to target civilian buildings since the start of the war. The UN estimates less than 4k civilian casualties in the 2014-2022 period (combined pro-separatist and pro-ukranian), whereas they estimate over 9k civilian casualties since the Russian invasion (of which less than 10% were in the separatist territories. But sure, uKrAiNe NaZiS aRe TaRgEtTiNg CiViLiAnS.

The Guardian is propaganda and Nazis have been killing civilians for over 8 years. How many of those civilians were killed by Russia and how many by Ukraine? Strange argument, WWII killed more people than the Nazis so the world should have armed the Nazis instead of stopping them. The reservoir fed Crimea and Kiev has been blowing up Ukraine for years.

[N35t0r]

The Guardian is propaganda but we should trust your 'I read somewhere' and 'I saw a video' and 'believe me'? lol

[Berzerker]

Trust what you want, but the Guardian is propaganda

[Berzerker]

Yes, The Guardian is propaganda. Trust who you want.

[Dinner]

A great interview.

https://youtu.be/rIrzxoeSGHM

[N35t0r]

Neither Russia nor Ukraine needed mines to blow the dam

No dumbass, the mines I refer to are the ones Russia laid all over along their defenses, which are now washed all over the place. The dam was most probably blown by internally placed explosives (and guess who had control of the dam? Russia)

and if my plan was to flood an attacking force I'd wait for them to get in the path. Is there any evidence Ukraine was about to launch an attack from that area?

Ukrainan special forces were harassing russian troops, but it's impossible for Ukraine to mount a large scale offensive through the river without bridges, and the two crossings (the bridge over the dam and the bridge by kherson) were blown up by the Russians when they retreated from the west bank.

Russia withdrew from Kherson for fear of a dam break isolating troops in the city and they've been building fortifications to the east.

No, they withdrew from fear of the bridges being blown (one of which crossed over the dam), and thus losing their ability of getting supplies.

I saw video of Russians wading thru the flood waters so it wasn't empty fortifications...

There was more flooding than just the fortifications. There is also videos of Ukrainians rescuing stranded people from the flood.

Now if there was a mass evacuation of troops that would make Russia look guilty.

There have been major movements of troops from occupied Kherson oblast to the east at least since Wagner was scheduled to withdraw from Bakhmut, but especially since the Ukrainian counterattack against its flanks started; and also to Belgorod since Russian separatists have been wreaking havoc there.

The report on dams I saw was about more water released up river, analysis should show anything unusual about it but if both sides saw profit in blowing the dam then both would want more water.

There was more water released upriver because the river is at it's high in this season. If this had been an extraordinary release on Ukraine's part, then the reservoirs upriver should be lower than expected, instead they are at their annual maximums. The russians should have opened more floodgates to avoid the high level in the reservoir, but didn't.

The reservoir fed Crimea's crops, Russia didn't blow the dam.

How dumb are you? The reservoir also waters 31 different irrigation systems in the Ukraine, supplying water to 5840 km² of Ukrainian cropland (in comparison, Crimea has ~1700 km² of total agricultural land, of which less than 1300 km² is cropland). Around $1.5B of Ukrainian agricultural output is in jeopardy, as well as ~$280M of dead fish and other animals.

You seriously think that Ukraine would happily inflict all this damage to their own economy, but Russia wouldn't because of crimean crops?

[Ming]

The Guardian is propaganda and Nazis have been killing civilians for over 8 years. How many of those civilians were killed by Russia and how many by Ukraine? Strange argument, WWII killed more people than the Nazis so the world should have armed the Nazis instead of stopping them.

The Nazis INVADED other countries and tried to take what wasn't theirs.
Russia is doing the exact same thing. And much of the world has united to stop them.

The Russian INVASION is not about keeping people from harm. It's a land grab pure and simple. And anybody that gets in their way is a target, including civilians and children.
They are the ones that started this war by crossing the boarder of another country in an attempt to add the land to their empire.

[BlackCat]

Some interesting thoughts about the dam

[N35t0r]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1666782631768236032

Ukrainians trying to rescue flooded Ukrainians getting shot at by Russian artillery.

Russians certainly don't seem to care about war crimes...

[pchang]

That is the only part of war Russians are good at. Which makes sense, since they are basically a Kleptocracy.

[Berzerker]

No dumbass, the mines I refer to are the ones Russia laid all over along their defenses, which are now washed all over the place. The dam was most probably blown by internally placed explosives (and guess who had control of the dam? Russia)



Ukrainan special forces were harassing russian troops, but it's impossible for Ukraine to mount a large scale offensive through the river without bridges, and the two crossings (the bridge over the dam and the bridge by kherson) were blown up by the Russians when they retreated from the west bank.


No, they withdrew from fear of the bridges being blown (one of which crossed over the dam), and thus losing their ability of getting supplies.


There was more flooding than just the fortifications. There is also videos of Ukrainians rescuing stranded people from the flood.


There have been major movements of troops from occupied Kherson oblast to the east at least since Wagner was scheduled to withdraw from Bakhmut, but especially since the Ukrainian counterattack against its flanks started; and also to Belgorod since Russian separatists have been wreaking havoc there.



There was more water released upriver because the river is at it's high in this season. If this had been an extraordinary release on Ukraine's part, then the reservoirs upriver should be lower than expected, instead they are at their annual maximums. The russians should have opened more floodgates to avoid the high level in the reservoir, but didn't.



How dumb are you? The reservoir also waters 31 different irrigation systems in the Ukraine, supplying water to 5840 km² of Ukrainian cropland (in comparison, Crimea has ~1700 km² of total agricultural land, of which less than 1300 km² is cropland). Around $1.5B of Ukrainian agricultural output is in jeopardy, as well as ~$280M of dead fish and other animals.

You seriously think that Ukraine would happily inflict all this damage to their own economy, but Russia wouldn't because of crimean crops?

You said Ukraine would contest the dam and remove the charges - the dam was mined and I said neither side needed the mines to blow the dam (charges = mines). The dams in Ukrainian territory are intact, they have water for crops. Why wouldn't Russia destroy the dams watering Ukrainian territory? Maybe the dam just collapsed, it had been getting damaged during earlier battles. The Russian general withdrew from Kherson because he was worried about the dam. I'm sure he was worried about bridges too, but the bridge over the dam is not near Kherson.

[Berzerker]

The Nazis INVADED other countries and tried to take what wasn't theirs.
Russia is doing the exact same thing. And much of the world has united to stop them.

The Russian INVASION is not about keeping people from harm. It's a land grab pure and simple. And anybody that gets in their way is a target, including civilians and children.
They are the ones that started this war by crossing the boarder of another country in an attempt to add the land to their empire.

Nazis invaded the Donbas for 8 years with US support and Russia defended the victims

[Dinner]

Lies.