Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Berzerker]

He ran down a list of reasons why the flooding hurts the Russians (and Crimea) and still concludes Russia blew up the dam to prevent a Ukrainian offensive targeting Russia's defenses that are now being flooded. The reservoir being drained was an obstacle that required little protection, the dam break destroys Russian defenses to the south and exposes weak or non-existent defenses to the north. Course it'll be muddy so I dont know how long it will take before it dries out. Why would Russia put all that effort into building defenses down river from the dam only to flood those defenses?

[N35t0r]

They haven't been particularly bright this past year and a half, so you tell me.

Also, only one side has been callous with civilian lives so far. I'll let you guess which one.

As it is, Russia is doing no effort whatsoever to help civilians affected by the flood, while Ukraine is diverting drones it would otherwise be using for the war to supply people staranded (on the Russian-occupied side):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512

Plus, it will be a while until the empty reservoir is traversable, and the river there isn't going to go anywhere, so it will still mean an opposed major river crossing for Ukraine.

[-Jrabbit]

Wait, you mean the Russians aren't saving the lives of Ukrainian schoolchildren being threatened by the flood and subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive?
WHAT ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!

[Berzerker]

page does not exist... just like the Ghost of Kiev and Heroes of Snake Island

[N35t0r]

Try again, Twitter is not working that well lately for some reason

[EPW]

Probably the dam collapsed because of Russian mismanagement.

[pchang]

Mismanagement of high explosives.

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile Russia stopped a major Ukrainian attack spearheaded by Leopard tractors and harvesters

[Berzerker]

They haven't been particularly bright this past year and a half, so you tell me.

Also, only one side has been callous with civilian lives so far. I'll let you guess which one.

As it is, Russia is doing no effort whatsoever to help civilians affected by the flood, while Ukraine is diverting drones it would otherwise be using for the war to supply people staranded (on the Russian-occupied side):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666393605437632512

Plus, it will be a while until the empty reservoir is traversable, and the river there isn't going to go anywhere, so it will still mean an opposed major river crossing for Ukraine.

And they blew up their own pipeline... Stop hitting yourself Marcia. I dont have to guess, Ukraine has been shelling civilians for nearly a decade. But thats so nice of them, sending drones to save people. I would expect them to send drones to attack Russian survivors. Russia will need to divert resources to provide that opposition along the river. I dont see the upside for Russia, they've been wanting Ukraine to attack their defenses so a flood wipes them out instead. A Russian general withdrew from Kherson a while back because the dam was a potential target and he knew that could trap his soldiers in the city. One analyst said evidence of surreptitious warning and movement of people might identify whodunit.

[Berzerker]

Russia did this to head off a counter offensive...? Why wouldn't they wait for the attack and let Ukraine take ground east of Kherson and then blow the dam? Why even bother building those defenses east of Kherson if the plan was to invite Ukrainian forces into the path of a flood? Does this mean the counter offensive is off?

[Berzerker]

Ukraine controls 5 or 6 dams upstream from that reservoir and it has been reported Ukraine was releasing more water from them raising the water level before the dam was blown up.

[-Jrabbit]

Reported by whom?

[Ming]

How many people on both sides died before the war? How many have died since Russia started the War?
So much for protecting their countrymen...

[Berzerker]

The war started in 2014 when Obama sent a Nazi army to attack eastern Ukrainians for not supporting the coup.

[Proteus_MST]

The war started in 2014 when Obama sent a Nazi army to attack eastern Ukrainians for not supporting the coup.

I am sure that Serb will totally agree with this posting

[N35t0r]

Now Berz is going to tell us that Ukraine blew up MH17

[N35t0r]

Russia did this to head off a counter offensive...? Why wouldn't they wait for the attack and let Ukraine take ground east of Kherson and then blow the dam? Why even bother building those defenses east of Kherson if the plan was to invite Ukrainian forces into the path of a flood? Does this mean the counter offensive is off?

They wouldn't wait until more forces were crossing the river because one of the first things that they would do is contest the dam and remove the charges, I'd say. At least if I was Ukraine, I would do that.

Russia has also been taking troops away from the Kherson region for the past couple of months to send to more active areas of the front, perhaps they decided that sacrificing empty fortifications was an acceptable tradeoff to shutting off that front for the near future (if not more).
Now minefields have been washed away and spread all over the place, infrastructure destroyed and the river channel completely altered, so any crossing of the lower Dnipro would be considerably harder than it was before (once the reservoir finishes emptying, right now it's downright impossible).

Regarding the dam level, Russia was in control of the dam, so they could have let more water through to avoid it filling up. Late winter snowmelt and spring rains (and the associated mud season) also mean that higher flow rates into the reservoir for the past couple of months are to be expected, not nefarious Ukrainians trying to destroy their own country.

[Donegeal]

Ukraine is in a no lose situation. If Russia did it, it's a war crime for both humanitarian and environmental reasons. If Ukraine did it (and it actually helps them), good for them; their internationally recognized sovereignty has been violated and I'm okay with them doing pretty much whatever they can to thwart the unlawful invaders.

[Berzerker]

Are you okay with all the lies being told to perpetuate this war?

[Geronimo]

Are you ok with the lies the allies told to win WW2 berz?

[N35t0r]

Okay, according to satellite altimetry data, all other reservoirs upstream from the Kakhovka reservoir are also at high levels (eg: https://dahiti.dgfi.tum.de/en/115/wa...vel-altimetry/ ) , as is the Dnipro where it flows into Ukraine from Belarus.

So either the Ukrainians have been pumping water into the reservoir from somewhere else, it wasn't them.

[N35t0r]

And they blew up their own pipeline... Stop hitting yourself Marcia. I dont have to guess, Ukraine has been shelling civilians for nearly a decade. But thats so nice of them, sending drones to save people. I would expect them to send drones to attack Russian survivors. Russia will need to divert resources to provide that opposition along the river. I dont see the upside for Russia, they've been wanting Ukraine to attack their defenses so a flood wipes them out instead. A Russian general withdrew from Kherson a while back because the dam was a potential target and he knew that could trap his soldiers in the city. One analyst said evidence of surreptitious warning and movement of people might identify whodunit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/russian-forces-accused-of-blocking-flood-evacuation-efforts

Also, it's very funny that you think it's ridiculous for Russia to have blown up a pipeline they weren't using, but it makes sense for Ukraine to blow up a dam in their own country.

And in case you haven't been paying attention, Russia has been using missiles and drones to target civilian buildings since the start of the war. The UN estimates less than 4k civilian casualties in the 2014-2022 period (combined pro-separatist and pro-ukranian), whereas they estimate over 9k civilian casualties since the Russian invasion (of which less than 10% were in the separatist territories. But sure, uKrAiNe NaZiS aRe TaRgEtTiNg CiViLiAnS.