Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[N35t0r]

I thought DU was implicated in birth defects in Iraq

There's been an uptick of birth defects in Iraq since the war, but the link to DU rounds is not really established.

War is hell, and it could be a lot of other things as well.

[N35t0r]

I mention the low radioactivity only because if it was higher it might be easier to find and clean up local concentrations in a timely manner before they disperse everywhere. The toxicity is terrible and the burning contributes to the dispersal. I still maintain that there isn't any real benefit to using it in Ukraine as the weapons were designed to deal with effective armor plating using a material that is both more available in quantity and considerably less toxic than alternatives like osmium, which is not only more expensive and harder to machine than DU, but also has considerably more toxic oxides than DU (0.002 mg/m3 upper safe limit vs 0.2 mg/m3 upper safe limit for DU oxides). No effective armor plating in use by your enemy? Then no value over conventional density ammunition.

I also maintain that the use doesn't have to be a big deal, all things considered. Not worth using there but not a big deal that it was.

Oh, I totally agree that DU rounds are generally not worth the PR nonsense.

Osmium is not used in tank rounds, that I'm aware, that was just correcting Oerdin's nonsense that DU was 'the densest metal known to man'.

Challengers can't use other western shells because they've got different guns, rifled rather than the smoothbore Rheinmetall guns found in the M1 and Leopard 2. They also have three -piece ammo, which combined with the rifled barrels means that the saboted ammo they can use is really limited compared to the single-piece of the Rheinmetall gun. They also can't shoot HEAT projectiles.

For all of this (among other reasons), they will be switching to smoothbores as well in future.

[BeBMan]

Which is why Putin was using that rhetoric of 'nuclear component' weapons when the UK started to supply them a few months back. To agitate that population.

It's a good indication how the war is going for Russia that we see those repeated attempts to play the nuclear scare/blackmail card.

[Serb]

Love it!

You love all kind of bullsh!t from your Kiev Bob's whore, but the fact is:

[PLATO]

You love all kind of bullsh!t from your Kiev Bob's whore, but the fact is:

That is so laughable! Do you even know what a Patriot battery consists of? There are multiple components that are spread out over a wide area. It would be physically impossible for a single missile to destroy an entire battery. The key to the whole thing is the radar station part of the battery (which was not damaged). The individual launchers are fairly easily replaced if destroyed. Even that was not the case here as one of the modules was damaged. The extent of the damage is not yet public but we can take some understanding from the Pentagon when they say they are evaluating what it would take to repair it. It has not even been established that it took a hit as I have seen some speculation on there having been a malfunction of some type. At worst, this can be categorized as a slight decrease in effectiveness.

What is really interesting here is that Russia has been planning on how to destroy a Patriot system for two decades and they are proving woefully inadequate to the task. No system can hold up to massed attacks from multiple vectors but I believe the Patriot is doing better than expected. The fact that it is not deployed as part of an integrated air defense system (as it would be if NATO were deploying it) speaks even more to the over performance to expectations.

There can only be one of two conclusions. The Patriot is more effective than we knew or this is just another example of how bad Russia's armed forces are. A concerted effort should be able to take out any system and so far the Russian military isn't up to the task.

[Serb]

[Serb]

That is so laughable! Do you even know what a Patriot battery consists of? There are multiple components that are spread out over a wide area. It would be physically impossible for a single missile to destroy an entire battery. The key to the whole thing is the radar station part of the battery (which was not damaged). The individual launchers are fairly easily replaced if destroyed. Even that was not the case here as one of the modules was damaged. The extent of the damage is not yet public but we can take some understanding from the Pentagon when they say they are evaluating what it would take to repair it. It has not even been established that it took a hit as I have seen some speculation on there having been a malfunction of some type. At worst, this can be categorized as a slight decrease in effectiveness.

What is really interesting here is that Russia has been planning on how to destroy a Patriot system for two decades and they are proving woefully inadequate to the task. No system can hold up to massed attacks from multiple vectors but I believe the Patriot is doing better than expected. The fact that it is not deployed as part of an integrated air defense system (as it would be if NATO were deploying it) speaks even more to the over performance to expectations.

There can only be one of two conclusions. The Patriot is more effective than we knew or this is just another example of how bad Russia's armed forces are. A concerted effort should be able to take out any system and so far the Russian military isn't up to the task.

Only an idiot or an American (which is pretty much the same) could really believe that SAM system with a radar designed to track targets at Mach 3 and equipped with missiles, which travels at 2.8 Mach at best has ANY CHANCE to track and intercept a target, which travels at MACH 10!!!

Keep eating your Kiev's sh!t, idiots!

[Serb]

A hopless Western imbeciles with no clue about physics.

[PLATO]

A hopless Western imbeciles with no clue about physics.

I suppose you may be right. After all, I only took 5 different physics classes in college (just because I had an interest in the subject). What did you say your physics background was?

[PLATO]

Only an idiot or an American (which is pretty much the same) could really believe that SAM system with a radar designed to track targets at Mach 3 and equipped with missiles, which travels at 2.8 Mach at best has ANY CHANCE to track and intercept a target, which travels at MACH 10!!!

Keep eating your Kiev's sh!t, idiots!

Kinzhals are crap. Analysis of their parts show that some are being constructed using washing machine parts.

But...just to show your ignorance a bit more. The radar for a Patriot can track objects going MUCH faster than mach 10. It is the software that has limitations in processing that data. The evidence before us seems to show that your information is, at the very least, dated.

[pchang]

Software is easily patched

[Geronimo]

You love all kind of bullsh!t from your Kiev Bob's whore, but the fact is:

Serb...did you even watch to 2:35?

[BlackCat]

"Swiss navy", "The Expendables" ????

[Geronimo]

Only an idiot or an American (which is pretty much the same) could really believe that SAM system with a radar designed to track targets at Mach 3 and equipped with missiles, which travels at 2.8 Mach at best has ANY CHANCE to track and intercept a target, which travels at MACH 10!!!

Keep eating your Kiev's sh!t, idiots!

In addition to Plato's fine reply I'd like to address your assertion that the Mach 2.8 speed of the patriot makes its interception of an object at Mach 10 impossible.

If I wanted to intercept a 600 kph bullet train with a stationary (0 kph) interceptor I could lay the interceptor on the track and be amazingly successful.

the difficulty in an interception has nothing to do with the speed of the interceptor relative to the target and everything to do with accurately placing the interceptor in the path of the target within the available time window.

The patriot system can track the kinzhal and guide the interceptor with more than enough accuracy to intercept. The only question would be can the kinzhal manoever enough to thwart the interception? Furthermore at hypersonic speeds will the kinzhal be more or less maneuverable and responsive than the much slower patriot interceptor? Russia has wanted the entire world to believe that it is. I'm not sure anybody is buying it anymore. Maybe it has something to do with the finding in the wreckage that Plato alluded to of those dishwasher parts that were found to have been MacGyvered into the missiles?

[Thoth]

Russian hypersonic missiles appear to be excellent at destroying Patriot missiles in flight.

[PLATO]

Russian hypersonic missiles appear to be excellent at destroying Patriot missiles in flight.

Wonder what the cost of a Kinzhal is? Patriot missiles reportedly cost about $5 million each. Maybe Putin can claim a "financial" victory?

[PLATO]

Nope...I am wrong. Wiki says Kinzhals cost about $10 million each. The math seems to work on these.