Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Bereta_Eder]

Also let's not compare things that are not comparable

WW2 is not the same as the american civil war or the greek civil war or the russian invasion of ukraine

there are specifics in those conflicts


I realize there is a pn human approach and to that we all subscribe I think but thery are very different beasts (but I do see the call for humanism in all of them)

[Proteus_MST]

The german state now is vastly different from the german state 80 years ago.
Actually it even is vastly differencce from the Weimar Republic which preceded Nazi Germany.

Else we surely wouldn't have been caught pants down, with a Bundeswehr that is only rudimentary functional
due to having been neglected for 3 decades and being put on a shoestring budget.

[BeBMan]

Well the whole tank thing with Germany was so much fun, it looks like we now get to do it again with warplanes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64446937

"No planes for you!"

It makes sense that Germany provides Leo tanks since they're widely available, and as the producer the country will have a key role in delivering, training, maintenance, ammo supply and so on. In the field of jets the situation is totally different. The Luftwaffe could only offer old Tornados (which are useless for air defense) or Eurofighters, which are not available in large numbers, and - even if they sort all the maintenance issues - are actually needed since the beginning of the war for air patrollling the Baltic area, Poland, even Romania, in combined NATO ops.

[Geronimo]

It's almost like defeating Russia isn't the purpose of NATO.

[Geronimo]

These could be the first signs...

Ukrainian success has always been more about Russian incompetence than Ukrainian proficiency. Nothing has changed Russia's overwhelming economic advantage in war production and Ukraine is utterly dependent on donations material to offset this.

So long as Ukraine is under attack everywhere and Russia is largely spared from direct attack, it's only a matter of time before Russian competency is discovered.

I don't understand when, if ever, the Ukrainian allies will realize half of everything they would eventually give would be vastly more effective than twice as much if given ASAP rather than continuing this enormously expensive and wasteful "boil the frog" strategy which definitely confers no benefit...if it ever did.

Russia may win and if it does it will be because of "boil the frog".

[PLATO]

Ukrainian success has always been more about Russian incompetence than Ukrainian proficiency.

Hmmmm....not sure I agree with that, I think it is more a combination of both Russian incompetence and Ukrainian proficiency that has led to Ukrainian success.

I do totally agree on your "boil the frog" point though. At this point it is idiotic not to give Ukraine what it needs to win. If Russia escalates, then they have far more to lose in the end...and they know it.

[BeBMan]

It's great we all agree the BBC is a credible source of news. Look what else I found there:

Russian army officer admits: 'Our troops tortured Ukrainians'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64470092

[Egbert]

i'm afraid the BBC has lost her credibility and her reputation some years ago.

[Geronimo]

It's great we all agree the BBC is a credible source of news. Look what else I found there:

Russian army officer admits: 'Our troops tortured Ukrainians'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64470092

Site blocked? That makes no sense.

Sadly for almost a year now, the credible reports and forensic evidence of torture have been so appalling that it would take some immensely heinous new crime to make my opinion of the Russian expeditionary forces human rights records any worse than it is.

[Uncle Sparky]

See below...

[Dauphin]

BBC is a state propaganda fake news media outlet. Can't be trusted. Didn't you know?

[PLATO]

Latest reports from Ukraine are that approximately 320,000 Russian Troops are in Ukraine. Western Officials also state that Russia has created a reserve of between 150,000 and 250,000 soldiers (some of which may still be in training). Jens Stoltenberg said about Russia, "They are actively acquiring new weapons, more ammunition, ramping up their own production, but also acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea." Andriy Yosov from Ukraine's Defense ministry said "We are on the eve of a very active phase. Both February and March will be intensive."

Looks like the real bloodbath is about to begin. If Ukraine can hold against that onslaught will there be any options left for Russia? If they can't, will there be any options left for Ukraine? And...what about the Ukrainian offensive? We may be approaching the decisive moments of this war.

[giblets]

Buying weapons from North Korea? Things aren't looking too good for them.

[Dauphin]

I'm mostly intrigued that betting markets only give Putin a 60% chance of being in power by the end of 2024 (using the election results due that year as the formal market). Historically odds have been substantially closer to 100% as you may imagine.

[pchang]

Especially when you consider there really is no prohibition against "insider trading" for these markets.

[Dauphin]

Maybe not insider trading, but there is against match fixing. Oops, candidate is dead, no? How unfortunate for man who fell out of window, da?

[Uncle Sparky]

[BeBMan]

Thx Dunno what the heck went wrong with the link in my post.

[PLATO]

p.s. And worry about my CPU load, I have a real beast

Russian chip?

[Serb]

Nope. The Russian chips are not so fast yet, but we are rapidly moving to catch up.

[Broken_Erika]

Meanwhile, it doesn't matter if you got Intel or AMD. They are both made in Taiwan.

[Serb]

I have i9 and RTX-3080.