Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dauphin]

So, this time tomorrow, peace? Right?

Trump said it as part of the campaign, so I fully expect it to be true.

[BeBMan]

Funny, just as he mentions Korea:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/18/suicides-new-tactics-and-propaganda-ipads-details-from-captured-north-koreans-expose-new-foe-in-ukraine

[BeBMan]

He's probably struggling with the fact that he boasted how Ukraine "squanderd" all reserves in Kursk half a year ago, yet is still there, despite the heroic, albeit amateurish efforts of North Koreans. Or he's just struggling with any facts

[BlackCat]

Trumph will probably be very confused when his 24 hour peace deal won't happen

[The Mad Monk]

Say "hi" to Serb, for me.

[The Mad Monk]

Your Russian masters must really be fumbling the ball, if this is all you can come up with.

[MOBIUS]

Oerdin doesn't like it, that's the vote of confidence I need! 😁

I'm having fun with you. It's quite clear he's thick as ****. The comedian is actually a clown! So thick that he's actually helping the Russian war effort 🤪

(But he most definitely is a US stooge)

[Dinner]

That is one of the dumber conspiracy theories I have heard.

[MOBIUS]

Conspiracy theory: is Zelenskyy actually a deep mole for Russia...? 🤔

1) Russian is his first language

2) He gave Putin a cast iron excuse to invade by deliberately choosing sides against Russia with NATO over neutrality

3) Deliberately weakening Ukrainian armed forces b by refusing to draft their most able-bodied citizens - 18-25s

4) That dumb offensive to try to take back their territory: first explaining to their enemy where they were going to attack and then dumbly doing so, over and over

5) That other dumb offensive into Kursk so that their best equipment and formations can be systematically destroyed and degraded

6) Deliberately weakening the defences of Ukraine's strategic industrial heartland - now to the extent that they've been forced to sabotage their last remaining coking coal mine for their steel industry

7) Fighting far beyond when it was obvious they were losing, to allow Russia to systematically destroy their infrastructure and industry

I wouldn't want him in charge of my country, that's for sure! 😆

So, come the inevitable peace deal, I'm thinking the BEST they can hope for is a frozen frontline, and a swap of Kharkov territory for Kursk territory. And promising neutrality and never to join NATO.

Yep, he's definitely a Putin stooge 😅

[Dauphin]

The evolution of the timeline for the peace deal to end the special military operation is seemingly consistent with the evolution of the timeline for the end of the special military operation.

[BeBMan]

So Trump's new approach to Ukraine is handled by Kellogg's....

Who knew they gave us both breakfest stuff and - from what I read - an actually competent general. Which is why he wasn't chosen as the new def sec I guess, hehe

He's meanwhile updated the timeline:

https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/01/09/trump-team-shaves-two-months-off-president-elect-s-latest-ukraine-peace-deal-timeline

[BeBMan]

Also this (not war-winning, but pretty amazing nonetheless if confirmed):

https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/12/31/ukraine-says-naval-drone-downs-russian-mi-8-helicopter-in-historic-first

[N35t0r]

There's reports that Ukrainian artillery outnumbers Russian artillery on some fronts:

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/fukraine-s-artillery-advantage-now-3-1-on-1734101290.html

That's pretty significant news, considering that as much as 70% of Ukrainian casualties come from Russian artillery, and that they originally had a 7:1 advantage.

[Jon Miller]

A lot of the military aid to Ukraine takes a while to have an impact. I think that there is hope that the US aid from the last 2 years will still be felt into 2026 and so Ukraine still has time.

I read recently that Ukraine is providing 30% of thier own support, which is good. As long as Europe can provide a lot of the immediate needs, it is likely that Ukraine can continue to last, and we have seen signs that Russia is finally starting to crack.

JM

[Dauphin]

This looks better to use. Source material and details of how they collected. Updated December 2024


Ukraine Support Tracker Data | Kiel Institute

Dataset_Documentation.pdf

Total Military Allocations: US$ 131.5 bn, of which US$ 64.4 bn by the US.
Total Military Commitments: US$ 176 bn, of which US$ 70.5 bn by the US.

So US accounts for 50% allocated, and 42% committed. EU as an entity (i.e., excluding member countries) has been providing far more in financial assistance.