Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Dinner]

I believe Peter Zeihan did a pretty good summary of NATO's motivations as well as Russia's motivations. You will notice he wrote about what he called the Russian Twilight wars I'm 2013 before Russia's initial invasion and he expanded upon it prior to last year's second invasioin.

[Egbert]

I believe Peter Zeihan did a pretty good summary of NATO's motivations as well as Russia's motivations. You will notice he wrote about what he called the Russian Twilight wars I'm 2013 before Russia's initial invasion and he expanded upon it prior to last year's second invasioin.

Thanks, I looked him up and read some interesting stuff.

I am not convinced that America and the Euros have the same motivations. Although I have noticed that every country bar 3 are NATO members. The other 3 countries are Sweden and Finland who want to join NATO with the third contributor being Australia. Every other country is staying out of this conflict and I am not sure what all this means. It is not clear to me why Russia invaded the Ukraine and it is not clear to me why America is so concerned.

In particular, it would be interesting to know who blew up the Nordstrom pipeline, and why. We might not get the answer to that.

[BeBMan]

Chinese peace plan for Ukraine greeted cautiously by the west

China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi speaks of need to uphold principle of territorial integrity but also of respecting Russia’s ‘legitimate security interests’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/chinese-peace-plan-for-ukraine-greeted-cautiously-by-the-west

I'm somewhat sceptic given the Chinese role, but let's see what they come up wth first.

[dannubis]

It is not clear to me why Russia invaded the Ukraine and it is not clear to me why America is so concerned.

Landgrab. Nothing more, nothing less.
Why NATO is concerned is that after Ukraine and Moldova the Baltic states are next... and they are part of NATO. So NATO soldiers will die... it is easier to sacrifice Ukrainians.

[Geronimo]

This analogy is not necessarily a reflection of American motives for supporting Ukraine.

As things stand we do not know the actual motivations of the American government as distinct from their public pronouncements of their reasons. I have real difficulty believing that the Americans are sending help for altruistic motives, particularly when there are millions sorely in need of some altruism.

Put bluntly, I do not trust the government of the United States.

World War 2 isn't an analogy. It is a lesson. Do you honestly believe there weren't millions in desperate need of altruism in 1939?

[Geronimo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ly-by-the-west

I'm somewhat sceptic given the Chinese role, but let's see what they come up wth first.

China could provide the cover Russia would need to gracefully escape. Any plan will have to decisively end the war in the Donbass as Putin has all Russians quite convinced that the fighting there is cover for a genocide of Russian speakers like Zelensky.

[Dauphin]

Slight tangent, but the need for NATO to build up replenishing stocks of weapons, ammo, equipment, etc may be enough to provide a deterrent to any Taiwan escapades. Or a failure to do so may invite it if the NATO militaries look spent.

That said, I am not convinced any NATO member other than the US would be willing to provide Taiwan military support (in the vein of the Ukraine war) in the event it is needed. Officially there are not diplomatic ties, and NATO has no charter or "it's Europe" reason to get involved. So there is a lot hidden in the dark around what would happen.

[Geronimo]

Slight tangent, but the need for NATO to build up replenishing stocks of weapons, ammo, equipment, etc may be enough to provide a deterrent to any Taiwan escapades. Or a failure to do so may invite it if the NATO militaries look spent.

That said, I am not convinced any NATO member other than the US would be willing to provide Taiwan military support (in the vein of the Ukraine war) in the event it is needed. Officially there are not diplomatic ties, and NATO has no charter or "it's Europe" reason to get involved. So there is a lot hidden in the dark around what would happen.

So far there probably hasn't been much overlap in military stocks that could see use either in defence of Ukraine or in defence of Taiwan. Tanks, anti tank weapons, artillery shells, even HIMARs would probably not make much difference in Taiwan. If things get to a point where Taiwan could bring those to bear against the PRC, then the war is likely already lost for Taiwan and they would be capitulating.

Ukraine has received a lot of anti-aircraft and anti-ship assets however, and these could conceivably undermine the deterrent to a PRC invasion of Taiwan by suggesting to the PRC that availability of these deterrents is decreasing.

Probably Ukraine's allies should send enormous numbers of tanks and artillery if they want to help Ukraine without enticing the PRC to try their luck vs Taiwan.

[pchang]

Submarines are the biggest threat to any PRC attempt to invade Taiwan.

[Dauphin]

So far there probably hasn't been much overlap in military stocks that could see use either in defence of Ukraine or in defence of Taiwan. Tanks, anti tank weapons, artillery shells, even HIMARs would probably not make much difference in Taiwan. If things get to a point where Taiwan could bring those to bear against the PRC, then the war is likely already lost for Taiwan and they would be capitulating.

Ukraine has received a lot of anti-aircraft and anti-ship assets however, and these could conceivably undermine the deterrent to a PRC invasion of Taiwan by suggesting to the PRC that availability of these deterrents is decreasing.

Probably Ukraine's allies should send enormous numbers of tanks and artillery if they want to help Ukraine without enticing the PRC to try their luck vs Taiwan.

Yes. I am thinking more the perception than the actual weapons themselves. Classic game theory / arms race theory, where it is as much about perception as reality.

[BeBMan]

Looks like Biden blitzed much faster into Kyiv than Putin

[Uncle Sparky]

I'm sure Putin would gladly give his life to liberate Ki'ev.

[Donegeal]

How many former Warsaw Pact countries/Iron Curtain countries are now steadfast anti-Russia?

[BeBMan]

Most of them are part of NATO today.

Only Serbia (part of ex Yugoslavia, neither Warsaw Pact earlier, nor NATO now) and to some extent Hungary (which is in the NATO) can count as somehow pro Putin, though they also have needs, like Western/EU money, so are moving carefully.

[Geronimo]

What is the list iron curtain countries that aren't overtly anti russian?

Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
PRC
Cuba
Hungary (debatable)
Kazakhstan (debatable)
North Korea
Kyrgyzstan
Montenegro (debatable)
Russia
Serbia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan


that's a lot really.

list of iron curtain overtly anti Russian countries with respect to conflict with Ukraine

Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Georgia
east Germany
Hungary (debatable)
Kazakhstan (debatable)
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova(debatable)
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine


Definitely not a majority of population in ex iron curtain countries. A lot of these are only nominally anti russian

list of steadfastly anti Russian?



Czech Republic
Estonia
Georgia
east Germany
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Ukraine

the others haven't actually materially opposed Russia apart from some sanction participation AFAIK

[Serb]

I don't get your point.

Is it about the rat running from the sinking ship or about a whores?

[BeBMan]

What is the list iron curtain countries that aren't overtly anti russian?

Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
PRC
Cuba
Hungary (debatable)
Kazakhstan (debatable)
North Korea
Kyrgyzstan
Montenegro (debatable)
Russia
Serbia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

A number of those were part of the Soviet Union.