Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Berzerker]

It would have mattered had Ukraine been a member, but not because of an errant missile in Poland. I think nato has already done enough, time we claim victory in the cold war and stop effing with people.

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/O9iuSFmGkdg

[BeBMan]

IIRC S-300 has only a range of few hunded km max (depending on version), so is unlikely to cross from (western) Russia or Crimea into Poland (Lviv-Charkiv, so east/west Ukraine is roughly 1000 km), unless it's been coming from Belarus or it's a different type of missile (if we assume it a Ru missile thing).

[Dinner]

It is possible that it was indeed a Russian rocket which had been misprogrammed by transposing lat-long coordinates. Also Russia has been using S300 missiles as ballistic missiles even though they were designed as SAMs. Likely due to shortages of ballistic missiles.

https://youtu.be/pwXZcT4b5BU

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile, G20 results seems to be like:

- *most" countries strongly condemn the war (joint declaration, "most" is a concession to Moscow not condemning its own war)
- G20 agreed that nook-use *and threat thereof is a NoNo (that is incl. China, India, and Russia)
- countries "welcomed" the grain deal and its continuation
- IIRC none of the other foreign ministers/leaders wanted to meet with poor Lavrov

In short Russia not isolated and winning.

[N35t0r]

Zelenskyy is strongly denying it was an Ukrainian missile, oddly. Even when it is clear that if it was a Ukrainian missile trying (successfully or not) to counter a Russian missile, it would not be Ukraine's fault.

I also think that even if it was a Russian missile and it hit Poland without any interception to deviate it's trajectory, it wasn't done on purpose. It was either a targeting accuracy problem, or the wrong coordinates were loaded into the missile (the site hit has the latitude of Kiev and the longitude of Lvov, so there's a theory going around it might be a problem when loading coordinates from a list into targeting software. I personally think that's too implausible, but there it is).

[Berzerker]

the truth is propaganda

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/xT1cnveJZ9E

[dannubis]

Ukraine fired at incoming Russian missiles and missed (or hit) so who knows what the final trajectory of the missiles was.

[Dinner]

Unless there was an engine or guidance failure. Doesn't take much to make a missile go off in unwanted directions

Ok, this is starting to make sense now. According to the analyst at CNN the Ukrainian air defense fired a short range chaser air defense missile at an incoming Russian missile (maybe a short range Buk air defense missile). If the air defense missile hit the incoming missile then debris from the two missiles would land in an arc spreading out from the point were the two missiles hit each other. This debris then landed on the Polish border.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/11/16/poland-ukraine-russia-missile-strike-mike-lyons-cnntm-vpx.cnn

[Broken_Erika]

That doesn't really make sense as it would mean the Ukrainians fired in the opposite direction (west instead of east).

Unless there was an engine or guidance failure. Doesn't take much to make a missile go off in unwanted directions

[Dinner]

Most likely faulty Ukrainian missiles (of old russian design) according to latest news reports...
It appears even the Russians aren't stupid enough to try to loose faster than they are doing right now...

EDIT : doubly posty

That doesn't really make sense as it would mean the Ukrainians fired in the opposite direction (west instead of east).

[Dinner]

What are the chances that two "stray" missiles hit a grain solo and kill two people? Not good right?

Did they both hit the same area or just two missiles landed inside Poland in general? I heard on Perun (a high quality youtube channel from Australia; check it out because the guy does really good interestigations into hard data using government sources to try to show hard facts instead of opinions) that the 1960's era Soviet missile systems often can only hit with in 10-15km radishes of the target area.

Those types of era bars are OK on nuclear weapons but is wildly inaccurate compared to modern ballistic missiles. Hell, even Russia's most modern ballistic missiles have proven to be much, much less accurate than Russian propaganda had claimed.

[EPW]

Good call

[EPW]

best outcome. Unfortunately it'll be a propaganda point for Russia, and an embarrassment for Zelensky and Nato...not to mention the dead innocents...