Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

Speaking of him - he has made a rather bleak comment on the chances for a peace negotiation

for the vid, not the prediction

[BlackCat]

According to a reliable source (APN) the russians sent 20 of these helicopters, but already friday, the ukrainians had shot down two of them - maybe they can last a couple of weeks

Speaking of him - he has made a rather bleak comment on the chances for a peace negotiation

[BeBMan]

Evaluating the first week of the offensive I see several things by looking at the maps and reading the somewhat limited reports:

To add a bit from what I've read:

7.) Russia seems to use electronic warfare more successfully now, for example to jam Ukranian communications. This was always hinted as a Russian strength, but so far hasn't really made a bigger impact. Now it reportedly did in the south, and Ukraine has to take out those systems. How big that issue is in general for the war I dunno.

8.) As for air, also attack helicopters are used more frequently by the Russian army. So with more airstrikes from warplanes and helis while having those continued missile attacks against cities Ukraine maybe facing an issue that it cannot protect everything equally well

Still who'd have thunketh that almost 500 days into this mess Russia has to defend on several sectors of the front...

[Berzerker]

No, he was bribed as VP... I dont know what grift the Bidens have been up to recently with Joe as Prez. I supposed people are following the $$$ with the recent scandal involving FTX, including Ukraine.

[-Jrabbit]

So now you're claiming that Joe Biden is being bribed currently? Today?

[Berzerker]

Great threadjack. Meanwhile in Ukraine people are still dying and a country is fighting for its right to exist.

To try and move it a little bit back on topic...if Ukraine was bribing Biden, then it seems like it was money well spent.

Fighting to support a coup and kill protesters, mostly eastern Ukrainians with Russian ethnicity. Biden gives Ukraine our money and they give him kick backs, it pays well.

[BlackCat]

The conclusions that I am drawing from the first week or so is that this will be a very long slog of an offensive..

I kind of agree, and then not. UA has certainly probed a lot with scouting units and actually captured a lot of ground, but I'm not so sure that they only are supposed to find weak spots - they are also trying to commit russian backup units to the front line and then get locked wherever they end.

Fun part is that UA SAS units apparently has crossed the Dnieper river making havoc where the russians have left after the dam explosion - don't expect the UA to make an major assault that way, but it could easily mess up RA decisions.

[PLATO]

Evaluating the first week of the offensive I see several things by looking at the maps and reading the somewhat limited reports:

1.) The majority of Ukraine's liberated territory seems to be coming at noticeable bulges in Russian lines. This makes sense as they would have multiple attack axis.
2.) One notable exception to the above is north of Tokmak. Tokmak is an immensely strategic location as it is the East West link for both major highway and rail junctions. It also seems to have some of the most heavily fortified positions. It will be very difficult to penetrate. The advances north of it are there but they are very small and not yet to the real weight of Russian defenses. Taking Tokmak would essentially cut off a large number of Russian troops west of there from resupply.
3.) Russian engineers seem to be highly competent with the defensive structure they have been able to build. From the air, the defenses look pretty good with fortified firing positions and good layering.
4.) Russian artillery seems to have initial firing solutions dialed in pretty well for positions the defenses are designed to funnel Ukrainian forces into. Ukraine also seems to be doing a fair job of avoiding most of them so far.
5.) Russian stand off airpower seems to be deploying more tactically then it has. This is a huge advantage as the Ukrainians have little to nothing to counter it.
6.) Only 3 of the 12 heavy armor brigades the Ukrainians have built up for the offensive have been reported in use so far. This seems to indicate that the Ukrainians are still in a probing phase trying to find a weakness to exploit.

The conclusions that I am drawing from the first week or so is that this will be a very long slog of an offensive. Russian defenses seem to be good and Ukrainians are showing good conservation of force in their probing attacks. It is likely that the Ukrainians will find somewhere along this incredibly long front to achieve a breakthrough. When they do, they will likely have the advantage in maneuver warfare. The question will be if Russian airpower can make the difference. Success or failure? Just to early to tell at this point I think.

[PLATO]

Wasn't calling you out. It was a great threadjack though.

[Dinner]

I responded to other people's posts.

[PLATO]

Great threadjack. Meanwhile in Ukraine people are still dying and a country is fighting for its right to exist.

To try and move it a little bit back on topic...if Ukraine was bribing Biden, then it seems like it was money well spent.

[Dinner]

There are a lot of partisan actors in the civil service. Sadly, both parties try to get their partisans embedded in high places. Even a good president would have trouble getting all of them to comply and, let's face it, Trump obviously isn't that good at running large organizations much less reforming them even if he has the power to do so. Which is just another reason why I prefer an experienced person with a proven track record like DeSantis.

[Dinner]

A nice run down with the Hill.

https://youtu.be/OwonLYqKc80

[-Jrabbit]

So cool that all this evidence of corruption was held back for so long, all the way through the Trump administration. Clearly, they were just waiting for Trump to be indicted so that Fox, OAN and you would have something else to talk about. Those whistleblowers sure know how to play the long game!

[Dinner]

It will be until it isn't. Two whistle blowers claiming it has been covered up and the guy who supposedly made the tapes of the Biden's accepting bribes say they do exist so does FBI documentation which FBI director Wray (a Biden appointee) fought tooth and nail to not release (only finally agreeing after Congress scheduled a vote to find him in contempt of Congress) say they do. Either way we have three sources (four of you count the FBI report itself) that say Biden took the bribes and we have financial transactions showing Biden received $5 million in bribes while his son got a $1 million gig he had no business or experience getting. We also have video of Joe Biden openly bragging about doing exactly what he allegedly was bribed to do.

We even have evidence from banks that the Biden's illegally broke up the bribe money into small amounts to avoid financial disclosure laws, to try to not set off Federal money laundering laws (which they failed as numerous suspicious financial transaction reports were filed by banks which the Biden admin also tried to cover up), and used shell companies the Biden's themselves created to try to launder the money. That is a hell of a lot of evidence.