Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Dauphin]

Surrendering is now a crime in Russia, punishable by 10 to 15 years in prison (depending on the kind of surrender).

Can you surrender and claim asylum?

[Proteus_MST]

Can you surrender and claim asylum?

I believe, Zelenskyj actually offered this to them in a speech yesterday ...
i.e. that the Russians who surrender may opt to stay in Ukraina, instead of returning to Russia

[PLATO]

This was brilliant imho

[Proteus_MST]

The sleeping conditions btw. are as great as the weapons the draftees get

https://twitter.com/doge_techno5/status/1573271797184827393

https://twitter.com/SinitarGaming/status/1573437445823254540

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1573990949381804032

[N35t0r]

There's no problem, after all, summer is about to start...

[Dauphin]

If they want to save money they'd be better off providing coffins to sleep in. Dual use good.

[Geronimo]

Don't forget all those stealth fighters and T14 MBTs. They may be so well hidden that it's hard to find them tho....

For what it's worth I'm not a true believer like Berz. When I entertain wild speculations on Poly OT, It's just for fun.

That said, ever since Sadam Hussein concocted an elaborate scheme to seemingly irrationally convince the world he was acquiring WMD, I am always prepared to see these strongman despots come out of left field pursuing some crazy self destructive scheme that nobody around them could even question, let alone try to talk them out of.

[PLATO]

Did anyone ever find out what was in the secret Convoy that left Iraq for Syria the night before the invasion? NOT saying it was WMD...just curious as to if we ever knew since that was one "conspiracy theory" on where the WMD went.

[PLATO]

Russia Begins Mobilizing Ukrainians to Fight Against Their Own Country

Russia Begins Mobilizing Ukrainians to Fight Against Their Own Country (msn.com)

I think the Russians are in real trouble if they expect lines of dragooned Ukrainians to hold.

The question now becomes, what will have to happen to trigger the next escalation and what will it be?

The Brits are training 10,000 Ukrainians every 120 days. They should be close to 20,000 trained since they started...enough for an entire division. A NATO trained division equipped with NATO weapons thrown against unwilling conscripts is a recipe for total disaster for Russia.

[pchang]

Why wouldn't the dragooned Ukrainians simply turn their weapons on the Russians once they reach the front lines?

[Uncle Sparky]

Traditionally, you keep the conscript's family hostage as a guarentee of good behavior.

[BeBMan]

I don't really understand what they hope to gain by force-recruiting people. I read they already did it before in those areas occupied since 2014. I remember a news bit a while ago that some of those refused to fight on when they considered "their" area "liberated" (so under Russian control).

Now those they have to literally force now into service would not do magically better, rather worse IMO. Low morale is one of their main probs, and I don't see how forcing people into it solves that.

[Geronimo]

Russia Begins Mobilizing Ukrainians to Fight Against Their Own Country

Russia Begins Mobilizing Ukrainians to Fight Against Their Own Country (msn.com)

I think the Russians are in real trouble if they expect lines of dragooned Ukrainians to hold.

The question now becomes, what will have to happen to trigger the next escalation and what will it be?

The Brits are training 10,000 Ukrainians every 120 days. They should be close to 20,000 trained since they started...enough for an entire division. A NATO trained division equipped with NATO weapons thrown against unwilling conscripts is a recipe for total disaster for Russia.

that rate is way too low. Kudos to the brits for saving it from being practically zero. What desperately needs to occur is NATO maxing out its training capacity of Ukrainians across its members.

[pchang]

I believe Ukraine has more men available than they have weapons for them.

[Proteus_MST]

Germany and I think some other states as well, train the Ukrainians on the weapons systems they supply (for example, with regards to germany on the PzH 2000 and the Gepard)

[Geronimo]

I don't really understand what they hope to gain by force-recruiting people. I read they already did it before in those areas occupied since 2014. I remember a news bit a while ago that some of those refused to fight on when they considered "their" area "liberated" (so under Russian control).

Now those they have to literally force now into service would not do magically better, rather worse IMO. Low morale is one of their main probs, and I don't see how forcing people into it solves that.

just doing what they know. That's how they won WWII and all of the regional conflicts they have "won" since.

[Geronimo]

I regard myself as poorly informed on issues of diplomacy and international law. I am probably even more poorly informed with respect to foreign political calculus and popular sentiment.

If Putin seemingly out of the blue nuked the three largest NATO bases with a Sarmat and immediately delivered an ultimatum that more bases will follow until all european states officially initiated exit from NATO would any NATO states remain or would European NATO almost immediately be disbanded?

I'm definitely worried that Putin believes that he knows that NATO would be almost immediately disbanded and that Washington, Paris, and London wouldn't follow through on article-5 even if it wasn't.

[PLATO]

If Putin nukes anything in NATO, then he will get immediate nuclear retaliation...followed shortly by his own destruction. That would be the most suicidal thing he could possibly do.

[Geronimo]

If a single nuclear weapon devastates NATO what makes you confident NATO would retaliate? They would know that as soon as they retaliated with nukes Russia will pull the pin on thousands of nukes but if they surrender they assume they can wait and see what happens. I'm sure Putin believes they would choose to not respond with nukes and that he could inflict a deep enough would on NATO with his limited strike to largely neuter NATO conventionally.

[PLATO]

I'm sure. It has been doctrine since the beginning of NATO. In fact, NATO would probably launch on "launch detection" as has been the rule since the beginning.

[Proteus_MST]

just doing what they know. That's how they won WWII and all of the regional conflicts they have "won" since.

Aye.
As Stalin said ... Quantity is a Quality of its own.

AFAIK in the 1980s the soviet plans that they had in their drawers for the conquest of western europa also relied on this.

They planned to attack in 3 waves ... with the first wave (which AFAIK, among others, would have consisted of soldiers from Poland and the GDR) being expected to be almost completely annihilated, but being expecgted to weaken the NATO defenses enough, to allow the 2nd or 3rd wave to break through.

This also shows the disregard for the individual soldiers life, that we have come to see from Putin and his generals

[pchang]

Apparently, the real Nazis are in Russia. Or perhaps Putin will claim this guy was actually Ukrainian.

[Geronimo]

Apparently, the real Nazis are in Russia. Or perhaps Putin will claim this guy was actually Ukrainian.

Oh God, don't let this be some utterly depraved, astronomically cynical, false flag operation designed to shore up public support for the war in Ukraine. jeezus.

If Putin claims anything he won't claim anybody is "Ukrainian". His dogma is that such a people does not exist as a distinct ethnicity or nationality. If Putin claims anything look for a claim that the shooter had "Western" connections or connections to the puppet regime in Kiev.

[Proteus_MST]

Apparently, the real Nazis are in Russia. Or perhaps Putin will claim this guy was actually Ukrainian.

No matter whether itwas an Ukrainian or not ... or an intentional false flag operation ... or an action done by a disgruntled Russian ...
I am 100% sure that Putin (or his propagandists) will claim that this was an action by Ukrainians

[PLATO]

Lying pig that he is.