Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[giblets]

I really cannot understand why Russia would continue shooting at nuclear power plants. Do they not realize that parts of Russia are downwind from those nuclear power plants or do they really just hate Kazakhstan that much.

Must be a false flag by Ukraine to make Russia look bad

[PLATO]

Given that none of the reactor buildings have been hit, you would have to assume that the Russians are actually aiming before they fire in these situations. A true rarity I will admit.

[Proteus_MST]

Or they actually aim at the reactor buildings but, given their suboptimal aiming skills, are always missing their targets

[PLATO]

Ukraine appears to have around 25,000 Russian troops boxed in with their backs to the Dnipro River. The area has a lot of irrigation ditches that provide good defensive position for the Russians, but resupply is extremely bad due to Ukraine having fire control over the river. Unless there is a breakout, this looks like these troops will be captured or destroyed in the coming weeks. This would be Russia's single largest defeat and likely break the back of their defenses north of the Crimean boarder imho.

[EPW]

Yeah I thought they would surrender last week.

[Dauphin]

Looks like Luhansk wants to get a so-called referendum in before everyone runs away.

Other reports claim Russia withdrew submarines from Crimea/Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in southern Russia.

So, when these referenda lead to over 100% voting to join mother Russia, will Putin say Ukrainian liberation / occupation of these territories represent attacks on Russia soil and warrant NBC response(s)?

[Uncle Sparky]

The vast majority of Crimeans voted to join Russia after the little green men occupied the peninsula. Those who voted against, are now enjoying their new homes in Siberia.

[Dauphin]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62965998

[Geronimo]

Russia has also amended its constitution to forbid any discussion of changes in status of "Russian territory" with any foreign state. So, while Ukraine may deoccupy such territory they will have to accept eternal Russian recognition of all such territory as exclusively Russian.

[N35t0r]

I'm sure the British can give them a tip or three about that

[BeBMan]

So, when these referenda lead to over 100% voting to join mother Russia, will Putin say Ukrainian liberation / occupation of these territories represent attacks on Russia soil and warrant NBC response(s)?

That's what Russian hardliners would like to happen, and the Medvedev guy already hinted it. Not that he has any real authority tho.

Otoh annexation didn't stop Ukraine striking Crimea, and Russian nuke threats are nothing new.

[Proteus_MST]

Putin has announced partial military mobilization

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/russia-ukraine-war-putin-announces-partial-military-mobilization.html

[BeBMan]

In the clear: My "Special Military Operation" is a failure, now I need more troops to make up for losses which my MoD never admitted to. No general mobilization because of neg. consequences, and practical problems (like cannibalisation of training units to send more folks into the grinder already).

Edit: also unclear what this means for the status - is this now officially a "war"

Plus more nuke threats to keep right-wing nuts in Russia happy.

Now jokes aside this is a serious step, but right now it seems to be more to adress the domestic audience than anyone else.

[Egbert]

Plus more nuke threats to keep right-wing nuts in Russia happy.

I expect the nuke threats are to ensure that NATO does not provide direct assistance. A NATO intervention would surely be a nightmare scenario for Putin.

[N35t0r]

Putin has announced partial military mobilization

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/russ...ilization.html

Russian business paper RBC says that all tickets for direct flights today and tomorrow from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan, Tashkent and Baku have sold out

[Geronimo]

I have to wonder if this sort of sudden 180 will be capable of cracking the integrity of even Serb's faith and trust in the state kool-aid credibility.

[pchang]

Serb may be part of this mobilization

[PLATO]

I would hate that for Serb. Talk about a reality check. Hope he is safe.

[BeBMan]

From: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e-hollow-bluff

“It’s not a bluff,” said Putin – a recognition that all his previous threats against the west, nuclear and non-nuclear, have been shown to be hollow as successive Russian “red lines” have evaporated in the face of western determination.

But this time, it's all real....

[EPW]

The former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute has died after falling down "several flights of stairs," the institute reported Wednesday.

Scientist Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, "fell from a great height," according to the university, which described his death in the Russian capital as an accident.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944

Ran out of windows?

[Uncle Sparky]

Gee... he moved to an inside office to avoid windows... oh well.

[BeBMan]

First windows, now stairs -- totally creative.

[Proteus_MST]

Russians are, obviously, very clumsy and shouldn't be allowed near stairs, windows or railings

[Uncle Sparky]

OUR WORDS ARE BACKED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!!

[PLATO]

Why did this make me think "Grog want Tank!"??????

[Uncle Sparky]

Civ2 quote.

[BeBMan]

MY PIES ARE BAKED WITH NUCLEAR POWER! (tho probably only partially, when we get electrictiy from France in certain periods).