Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Geronimo]

Meh, probably several polytubbies will say that this video is 1 hour 20 minutes and 52 seconds too long and that I should be sent to the recycling bins, but here it is - perun is quite good :

PS: Could someone with administrative rights please add polytubbies and variants to the dictionary ? It's pretty annoying that a common word are underlined with red

Is there a transcript somewhere?

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Your browser's doing that, not the forum, I'm pretty sure.

[Broken_Erika]

I'm pretty sure how it works. It's a browser thing. Question is how do you add new words into the browser autocorrect.

[Broken_Erika]

https://www.askdavetaylor.com/how-ca...ck-in-windows/' for chrome users and
To add a word to the dictionary, Right-clickHold down the control key while you click on it, and select Add to Dictionary. Note: Added words apply to all your dictionaries.
for Firefox.

[BlackCat]

Whether it's a browser thing or a site thing, it should be possible for the site to add their specifics - intellij f.ex. has it.

[BeBMan]

Ukraine war: Russian retreat exposes military weaknesses

Full: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62914958

Few of the gems:

While Russian officials and state media are trying to play down the Russian forces' retreat from Kharkiv, individual war reporters, veterans and influential military bloggers are acknowledging numerous challenges within closed messaging channels.

Blogs and Telegram channels are littered with stories of inadequate equipment and personnel, compounded by a rigid operational hierarchy.

One Telegram channel, sharing experiences of soldiers in the field in Ukraine shortly after the latest retreat, describes how even deploying a small surveillance drone needs to be approved by a senior officer or a general, considerably slowing down understanding of enemy positions.

There are not only concerns about poor leadership. Basic equipment appears to be in such short supply that it is having to be crowdfunded. Dozens of public social media groups are collecting money for a whole range of kit - everything from drones to socks and underwear.

One of them, called "The People's Front", says it has raised about 1.5bn roubles (£15m, $17m) over the past three months, and has already spent it on uniforms, helmets and flak jackets, as well as first-aid kits, binoculars and thermal imagers.

While there are no signs of imminent compulsory conscription, there has been a push for recruitment - described by the government as an "informal mobilisation" - since soon after the country's invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defence started posting adverts on popular job websites in early March, something which was rarely done before the war. On one website there are more than 7,000 military vacancies listed - for gunners, mortar crew and other combat-focused roles. None of the adverts mention the "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Possibly to make the proposition of serving more attractive, the minimum contract length has been slashed from three years to three months, and the upper age limit for a first contract raised from 40 to 60 years old.

Advertised monthly salaries range from 100,000-450,000 roubles (£1,000-£4,500, $1,139-$5,125) - a tempting proposition, despite the dangers of deployment, for those with poor job prospects in economically deprived areas of the country.

Russia is believed to be sending several of these scratch units to Ukraine every 10 days, following training of just a week or less.

Two separate sources on the front line told the BBC that such units, comprising short-term military contractors and fighters from the Wagner mercenary group - the head of which has been filmed recruiting in a central Russian prison - constitute the bulk of Russia's current frontline force.

Good news for Serb, he's not considered too old anymore

[Proteus_MST]

Perhaps he already knows and has decided to serve his motherland on the frontline ... and now is busy with fleeing back to Russia

[BeBMan]

I liked that the Russian org to crowd-fund equipment is called "The People's Front" in the article above. Reminds me so much on "Life of Brian"

[Apocalypse]

What happened to the other thread? When will Ukraine conquer Russia?

[pchang]

Bumped for you

[dannubis]

It fell out of a window

[pchang]

I really cannot understand why Russia would continue shooting at nuclear power plants. Do they not realize that parts of Russia are downwind from those nuclear power plants or do they really just hate Kazakhstan that much.

[dannubis]

They simply do not care...

[PLATO]

They simply do not care...

The average artilleryman probably thinks if Ukraine is radioactive, he can go home.

[Geronimo]

I really cannot understand why Russia would continue shooting at nuclear power plants. Do they not realize that parts of Russia are downwind from those nuclear power plants or do they really just hate Kazakhstan that much.

Don't both sides use artillery radar systems that automatically compute a return firing solution to incoming shells? Maybe most of the shells hitting the plants are Ukrainian shells responding to incessant Russian shelling from the fire bases the Russians have setup on the nuclear plant sites?

[BlackCat]

Excuse me, but that is an insane thought. True, both sides have artillery radar, but none of them have automatic response fire - that would be a ridiculous thing to do.

[Geronimo]

It wouldn't have to be fully automatic. It would be understandable if it simply wasn't user friendly. Maybe landmarks like the nuke plant aren't obvious without reference to an external map or software and maybe the window of time to effectively respond is unreasonably narrow. If shells are coming from the nuke plant we shouldn't be surprised if shells go back at the nuke plant.

[PLATO]

I think we should be both surprised and shocked. Both sides should be pounding the danger this represents into anyone within firing range of an NPP. ANY type of automated response in such areas would be nothing short of insane stupidity. If you are going to return fire on a NPP, you better darn well know EXACTLY what you will hit and what the blast radius is. If Russian commanders would even allow reckless action here, they should be shot by the Russians themselves.

[N35t0r]

The recent missile attacks were close to another NPP in the south of Ukraine, well behind the front lines in Ukrainian territory. I highly doubt it's counter-artillery shelling.

[Geronimo]

The missile attack was in the vicinity (300 metres?) Of the NPP but presumably the target was power distribution infrastructure per the new sad Russian strategy of going after the Ukrainian grid. It doesn't seem consistent with a strategy by either side to target the plants themselves even if only because the plants are still standing after all this opportunity for mayhem.

[N35t0r]

Yeah, I agree it's more likely to be Russia targeting power infrastructure than directly wanting to hit the NPP

[BeBMan]

Looks like Luhansk wants to get a so-called referendum in before everyone runs away.

Other reports claim Russia withdrew submarines from Crimea/Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in southern Russia.

[BeBMan]

Also this:

September 20, 2022 - 12:32

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's parliament on Tuesday approved a bill to toughen punishments for a host of crimes such as desertion, damage to military property and insubordination if they are committed during military mobilisation or combat situations.

The bill, passed in its second and third readings on Tuesday by the lower house of parliament, the Duma, comes amid debate inside Russia about a possible mobilisation, a step which could significantly escalate the conflict in Ukraine.

"Until today, the Russian criminal code did not have the concepts of 'mobilisation' or 'combat operations'," Pavel Chikov, head of the Agora law firm, which has represented a series of high-profile legal cases in Russia, told Reuters.

According to a copy of the bill, seen by Reuters, voluntary surrender would become a crime for Russian military personnel, punishable by 10 years in prison.

The Kremlin said last week that there was no discussion of a nationwide mobilisation to bolster the military campaign in Ukraine, days after a surprise Ukrainian offensive forced Russia from almost all of Kharkiv region.

But some Russian politicians and some nationalists have called for a full mobilisation.

Russia describes its actions in Ukraine as a "special military operation", and critics who call it a war or an invasion have been prosecuted under laws passed earlier this year against discrediting the armed forces or spreading false news about them.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/russian-parliament-toughens-punishment-for-crimes-during-military-mobilisation/47914604