Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[giblets]

We'll define "conquest" as "Ukraine's president is captured or exiled from the country", like this is a game of chess.

Poll will timeout in a couple days.

[Jon Miller]

I think that Ukraine's president will be captured, killed or leave the country this month.

I also don't think that Ukraine's people or soldiers will surrender.

JM

[Berzerker]

wont happen, regime change is possible if a deal isn't made but I dont think Putin wants a drawn out occupation

[Uncle Sparky]

Putin will be killed before Ukraine falls.

[EPW]

He could be killed by a random shell at any time, or by assassins or whatever. I don't think they're going subdue the country at this point and I'm sceptical that they'll manage to capture Kyiv, or if they do they won't be able to hold it. So I'm voting never.

[Geronimo]

I think zelensky will be captured or killed. Russia will lock down reporting from within Ukraine by completely controlling the vast borders and declare and report how peaceful post zelensky Ukraine has become. However, I think the war will continue indefinitely until Russia loses interest and finally pulls out leaving a pro Russia Ukrainian government to hang on for a couple of years. I don't think Russia will bother coming back when that government is finally overthrown.

[Serb]

Will not happen. We are not Americans.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

It's what happened in Afghanistan.

[Proteus_MST]

I think that Ukraine's president will be captured, killed or leave the country this month.

I agree that this has a large probability for happening.

I also don't think that Ukraine's people or soldiers will surrender.

JM

I am not totally sure ... IMHO it depends a lot on the comparison of

A. How West Ukraine will fare after the eastern part has been captured (I assume that Mariupol will fall this month and that everything eastern of the north-south-axis frm Kiev will be conquered by around April)
B. How russian economy will develope during the sanctions

I assume that Putin will never ever agree to anything less than an unconditional capitulation no matter how bad the russian economy developes (and no matter how much costs iincurs to keep his army in the field (or how many losses they take), because Putin would see it as weakness.

So, I think either it might develope into some kind of permanent truce (like between north and south korea), where Putin will just stop after conquering the eastern part (and then will secure the borders to the western part), or Putin will get deposed or killed and his successor might stop the war and leave Ukraine.

[Berzerker]

Recent Russian terms

stop fighting
constitutional amendment ensuring Ukrainian neutrality
Crimea stays Russian
Eastern Republics are independent

Ukraine would be so lucky to make that deal, but will Biden allow it?

the difference between this and the Minsk deal Kiev refused to implement is the eastern Republics would have stayed in Ukraine but with local autonomy

[BeBMan]

No idea, so I just vote nevah.

As for Zelensky, wondering if he should leave Kiyv at some point himself? I mean, he's shown his heroism already, does he have to die a martyr?

First he could move to Lviv or so, so does not have to leave the country as long Ukraine still controls larger parts.

Yeah, leaving could be a psychological blow to Ukrainian resistance, and Russia would declare it a propaganda victory.

But his death could have the same effect. Or worse - he's captured and they make a show trial for him.


If he's alive, either in Ukraine or even in exile he'd continue to be a thorne in Vlad's side.

Well, just random thoughts again

[Proteus_MST]

No idea, so I just vote nevah.

As for Zelensky, wondering if he should leave Kiyv at some point himself? I mean, he's shown his heroism already, does he have to die a martyr?

First he could move to Lviv or so, so does not have to leave the country as long Ukraine still controls larger parts.

Yeah, leaving could be a psychological blow to Ukrainian resistance, and Russia would declare it a propaganda victory.

But his death could have the same effect. Or worse - he's captured and they make a show trial for him.


If he's alive, either in Ukraine or even in exile he'd continue to be a thorne in Vlad's side.

Well, just random thoughts again

I totally agree ... Zelensky is much more worth (for ukrainian resistance) alive, than dead.
It would be a good idea für him to flee to western Ukraine before Kiev gets totally surrounded by russian troops.

I doubt so, hwoever.
Seems to me like he prefers to take a stand in Kiev ... and to either succeed in defending (fighting the russian army loses its will to fight (and/or russian supply problems force it to stop fighting))
or to die fighting.

It is funny btw. that it takes a comedian, to teach Putin bravery.
(I doubt that Putin would take a stand in Moscow, if Moscow were under attack ... he seems to be rather cowardly )

[Geronimo]

Recent Russian terms

stop fighting
constitutional amendment ensuring Ukrainian neutrality
Crimea stays Russian
Eastern Republics are independent

Ukraine would be so lucky to make that deal, but will Biden allow it?

the difference between this and the Minsk deal Kiev refused to implement is the eastern Republics would have stayed in Ukraine but with local autonomy

What leverage would Biden possibly posses at this point to "allow" or to not allow Ukrainians to do anything?

[Berzerker]

the US has run Ukraine for 8 years

[dannubis]

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Why do you think Ben should drive?

[Geronimo]

the US has run Ukraine for 8 years

So you think that just continues when leverage ceases like momentum?

Or...maybe the Ukrainian leadership was foolish enough to accept American COVID vaccines and now they function as mindless automatons?