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Originally posted by BeBMan
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Lol, you certainly act as if you feel required to have some kind of conversation. Just not one with any content.
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I btw. gave you the links you requested in my 2nd comment below your posting https://apolyton.net/forum/miscellan...32#post9444432Originally posted by Geronimo View Post
Lol, you certainly act as if you feel required to have some kind of conversation. Just not one with any content.
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "I am the Harbinger of Death. I arrive on winds of blessed air. Air that you no longer deserve."
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "He has fallen in battle and I must take him to the Einherjar in Valhalla"Comment
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Here is another conspiracy theory though a bit more realistic - there might be a raise in "window accidents" in Moscow, just maybe not in the expected group.
Edit: while writing some news was running in the background and it said that european military factories would start to produce ammunition to Ukraine - I assume that this will include things to their soviet hw.Last edited by BlackCat; September 13, 2022, 15:09.With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.
Steven WeinbergComment
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If would seem this should not be possible... the cheapest drones (less than $100) taking out a russian tank. oh well. I will just take it to the bank this is about 4lbs of shaped explosive. yes, some miss... this is a drop from 750 feet up. but.... a lot hit. dead on. it's crazy!!~!~~!!
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Germany says they will refuse to recognize ant further annexations by Russia. Does this mean Germany accepts the annexation of Crimea and Donbass?“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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I don't think so. Last official I found is this regarding Crimea annexation (March 2021):
Saying it's illegal, not accepted, etc. I'm not aware there has been any change since then.
(for some reason, they did not bother to translate, so the "english" button on that page does not work.
BlahComment
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It is definitely a misleading/strange choice of words, Scholz used (regarding "not accepting any further annexation")
And yes, as BeBro says ... the German Bundesregierung never made any public statement saying that they recognize Crimea as Russian territory,
rather the contrary.Tamsin (Lost Girl): "I am the Harbinger of Death. I arrive on winds of blessed air. Air that you no longer deserve."
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "He has fallen in battle and I must take him to the Einherjar in Valhalla"Comment
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The personal consequences to Putin would definitely seem to be a factor in what he might do and do seem to be firmly in control in Russia.Originally posted by PLATO View Post
Would he put the interests of Russia ahead of his personal interests or his ego, or his life.
This really is a terrible situation.Comment
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I am, in particular, fearful of Putin deciding it would be a good idea to order the use of battlefield nuclear weapons if he feels that Russia is facing an undeniable military defeat. Or if he feels he is in danger of losing his job.
That does not necessarily mean that such an order would be obeyed. It would likely be very destabilising to Russia if gave such an order and was shot dead on the spot or deposed.
If the order to use nuclear weapons was obeyed we would be in a far more dangerous world. A world were it was clear Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaties are worthless. The real world would be like Civ3 with every country hell bent on getting nukes ......
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Didn't Annalena Baerbock (the foreign minister) fully support Zelenskyy in the plan to recover 100% of the occupied territories (including Crimea) last week in Kiev?Originally posted by pchang View Post
Let me look for a link.Indifference is BlissComment
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Geronimo, Putin is spending a lot of money on the nukes, because if you don't spend a lot of money on the nukes you end up with a really expensive and heavy dirty bomb.
Russia also spent a lot of money on their conventional forces, and their more modern designs aren't half bad ('too bad' they can barely produce them since 2014 due to various embargos). It's just that they've been having a lot of problems with corruption and graft, and there is zero interest among the oligarchy (up to and including Putin) to keep it that way. There's also the problem inherent in a highly totalitarian regime where bad news is routinely punished and 'good news' and 'results' are what furthers people's careers.Indifference is BlissComment
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From what I've read there were exactly 3 Su-57 stealth fighters in service in Feb 22. Production had started in 2019. Before pre-series pieces were send to Syria. Late May 22 it's been 5 in service, unclear in what condition, as any modern, complex system usually needs some time to be fully operational.
T-14 MBTs don't seem to have entered service at all yet. Might be part of the grand plan to hold them back so much that they are not even available yet...
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There are around 10 Prototype models of the T-14 as long aas I heard.Originally posted by BeBMan View Post...
T-14 MBTs don't seem to have entered service at all yet. Might be part of the grand plan to hold them back so much that they are not even available yet...
One would assume that the ukrainian Battlefield would be a good way tom test them ... but I guess, Russia fears that they fail as miserably as the other Russian tanks ... which might negatively affect any future sales (that is, in the unlikely event that Russia will ever have embargoes lifted or will acquire its own High tech production capabilities in order to produce the electronics needed for the production of further T-14
)
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "I am the Harbinger of Death. I arrive on winds of blessed air. Air that you no longer deserve."
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "He has fallen in battle and I must take him to the Einherjar in Valhalla"Comment
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How difficult would it be for Putin to fool Western intelligence as regards numbers of Su-57s, perhaps a large number of nuclear weapon delivery systems it might carry, and a large number of T-14s? I assume in these days of exceptionally saturated spy satellite coverage it would require disguising the systems as something else when moving them at least. It would also require no whispers back to spies about the large scale deception. Other than luring some sort of Western "provocation" I don't see much benefit in doing so and see damage to Russian weapon sales while the ruse was being maintained. On the other hand, *if* Putin set out to break NATO with an escalate-to de-escalate nuke strike in NATO that NATO would disregard article 5 member responses to, I would imagine he would see a suitable NATO provocation as essential to domestic stability following such a strike. Stealth delivery of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and keeping surprise conventional forces in reserve to reveal at the time of the strike might be how he'd try to limit the likelihood of NATO attempting an overwhelming conventional response.
I like to believe that every day that Ukraine makes more gains at this point makes the timing of a later pre-planned escalate to de-escalate nuclear strike less likely. Any further waiting with real Russian losses when things had clearly already reversed just risks the stability it would supposedly help guarantee.
Unfortunately, even if the simplest (and most believable IMHO) explanation of Russia's failure as the result of any amount of the apparent Russian incompetence, Russian military corruption, insufficient Russian mobilization, quality Ukrainian leadership, quality Ukrainian motivation and effective Western weapon systems is the most correct one we will still be left with the risk that there may be a Russian un-preplanned escalate to de-escalate strike as a desperate measure and even find that Su-57's were hidden purely for such a contingency. In that case however, its less clear why Putin, determined to win with conventional forces would not have used the Ukrainian skies as a fitting trial by fire for the Su-57s. Su-57s you definitely wouldn't want to hinge an escalate to de-escalate attack on if they had failed to deal with Ukraine's air defences.
So all in all even I am becoming convinced that Russia will have wasted its apparently degraded war machine in Ukraine and will have little left besides nukes and 700K now greatly less well equipped troops. All I need to do if Ukraine gains continue to make Russian control of the situation as part of a 'plan' more implausible is hope that Putin isn't stupid enough to think NATO wouldn't do something spectacularly dangerous if a conventionally weak Russia tried to defeat them with Nukes. I really hope he's a rational man.Comment
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I suggested they might pull it off by disguising the vehicles rather than hiding them outright. Then they could be moved and transported. They'd just be unlikely to get any Su-57s airborne under enough modification/or obfuscating parts to fool casual/distant observers. Crews would still need to be trained however, so presumably we should have seen a lot more unmodified Su-57s to allow training enough pilots. I would think that the T-14s on the other hand might be disguisable in some kind of operable condition.
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Considering thatOriginally posted by Geronimo View Post
- it isn't as simple as Putin pressing on the "Red Button" and then all Nukes fly, but rather, that AFAIK there have to be 1-2 other people who have to enter their codes before Nukes fly.
- and that, of course even then the missiles (and other nuclear payload carriers) have to be started by subordinates further down the chain of command
I am, at least, convinced that a large nuclear war (with ICBMs flying to/from NATO) won't take place.
I am not so totally sure about the use of tactical nukes, however.
I think that, as soon as Ukraina tries to retake Crimea, this is interpreted (by Putin and his supporters) as an attack on Russian soil (and therefore could free the use of Nukes), so Putin might want to have his troops use tactical nukes in order to prevent a conquest of Crimea
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "I am the Harbinger of Death. I arrive on winds of blessed air. Air that you no longer deserve."
Tamsin (Lost Girl): "He has fallen in battle and I must take him to the Einherjar in Valhalla"Comment
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