Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Dauphin]

Most new Ukrainian weapons have been 'donated' by the withdrawing Russians.

[Dauphin]

If Russia uses tactical nukes I predict the west will escalate to secondary sanctions to stop trade with Russia and probably directly respond with a large conventional response, perhaps a no fly zone or several more imaginative conventional military responses.

In such a scenario, the West response will be less relevant than the Chines, Indian, etc response. I suspect.

[Geronimo]

Most new Ukrainian weapons have been 'donated' by the withdrawing Russians.

Makes me wonder why they weren't being used by the Russians. I suspect the vast majority of these 'donations' had stopped being useable without substantial resupply and repair.

[Geronimo]

In such a scenario, the West response will be less relevant than the Chines, Indian, etc response. I suspect.

China will reject secondary sanctions until something as drastic as a tactical nuke response by Russia angers them enough to stop standing in the way of Russia being reigned in.

[Proteus_MST]

Makes me wonder why they weren't being used by the Russians. I suspect the vast majority of these 'donations' had stopped being useable without substantial resupply and repair.

I guess, most heavy weapons donated by Russia within the last 5 days were just left because they were deemed to be too heavy to make it over the river into friendly territory.
Or because their drivers thought, fleeing via trucks would be faster.

Many of the heavy weaponry may also simply have run out of fuel (due to the supply lines being cut by the Ukraine.

[BeBMan]

It all depends wether Ukraine has still enough tractors to tow stuff away.

[BeBMan]

Bold prediction: Entire Russian occupation is about to collapse. Khersan will be back in Ukrainian hands within days, Donbas within 2 weeks, Crimea in a month. The only wild card is tactical nukes.

I predict Putin will reveal he's a western agent to make Russia look bad. Or something different

[pchang]

Apparently there is an underground resistance in Russia that is sabotaging things and that it’s popularity is growing.

[BeBMan]

Ukraine won back territory in a few days which Russia needed weeks and months to get.

Russian MoD sez it's just regrouping. Let's see how far Ukraine can regroup Russian forces

[N35t0r]

At this point the biggest thing holding Ukraine back is not the Russians, it is logistics.

(Edit: although let's be real, this just referring to the NE; in Kherson the Russians seem to be better resisting, if only because of the telegraphed offensive on Ukraine's part. Now they're all on the wrong side of the river with 'tight' logistics, so in all, Ukraine's plan was brilliant, but it will take some time for further advances to be made.

[pchang]

And by logistics - you mean supplies of donated weapons.

[EPW]

if the Russians resist seriously, but I don't think they will.

[Egbert]

Putin might be unemployed soon, if things don't improve in the Ukraine.

[dannubis]

Putin might be unemployed soon, if things don't improve in the Ukraine.

It is whispered he is very afraid of windows these days !

[Proteus_MST]

Even Russian Pro Putin Milbloggers now don't hesitate to criticise the Russian leadership

And Pro Putin TV Hosts (who still insist that everything is a planned move by the Kremlin) sound more and more noncredible (at least for everyone with at least half a brain)

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/11/e...ont/index.html

[PLATO]

Makes me wonder why they weren't being used by the Russians. I suspect the vast majority of these 'donations' had stopped being useable without substantial resupply and repair.

Let's not forget that it is not just the equipment. There has probably been a lot of much needed ammunition taken as well.