Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[N35t0r]

Sooooo... this could have been over in April but the British PM undoubtedly with Biden's support killed the peace deal

lol, no

[PLATO]

Sooooo... this could have been over in April but the British PM undoubtedly with Biden's support killed the peace deal

Sure...Ukraine could have just said "Yes, of course! You can have 20% of our territory for peace!" Instead they chose to say, "With the West's help, we will take back all of our land and defend our people from becoming your victims of torture and murder."

How stupid of them to think they should defend their country! How stupid of the West to help their ally when they are unjustly attacked! How utterly unfathomable that anyone should challenge Russia!

Good Grief....

[N35t0r]

All of this while Russians were committing genocide on Ukrainian civilians, and Zelenskyy was making speeches to anybody who would listen asking for support. But sure, the UK and USA put enough pressure to avoid a peace deal :rollers:

[Berzerker]

Ukraine and Russia were dealing, we killed the deal... and after 8 years of war in the Donbas eastern Ukrainians aint exactly jumping for joy at the prospect of being ruled by Azov so under what scenario would you have them give up 100% of their territory?

[N35t0r]

I think the nuke threat is to keep NATO out of the war as Russia pours 300,000 more troops westward from their boarders. Putin is scared s**tless about what NATO troops would do to his ragtag army and is doing what he can to make sure there is no intervention in force. He is doing what he can at this point to keep it a Ukraine-Russia affair.

This.

As poorly as I expect these new troops to perform, simply throwing 300,000 bodies at the Ukrainian positions is likely to break them somewhere. This is when the opportunity for a Russian proposed cease fire would be most likely imho.

Poorly coordinated waves of untrained, under-equipped conscripts during the mud season or in the middle of winter? Seriously doubt they will accomplish much.

If they get deployed immediately, I expect they will try and shore up the defense around Kherson, but their main issue there are supplies, not men IMO.

Maybe holding the line so that what is left of Russia's more competent troops can concentrate on one point, but Ukraine will see it coming, so I don't really know what's the final goal. I highly doubt that Ukraine will accept any kind of crease fire, at least in the near term (especially now they have gained the initiative).

I think Putin wants out of the war and would be willing to keep the lines where they are for it to stop, but in his mind it must stop on a positive to be able to declare victory.

If he really wanted out, he should have declared Ukraine denazified when Mariupol fell, and then withdrawn. The longer Russia keeps this up, the more difficult it will be for them to sell the victory internally.

But as long as they have minorities and criminals to conscript and send to the front, they don't really care about the losses.

The other critical issue is the economy. Oil is down to January price levels, and Russia has just imposed export tariffs for a lot of products (including oil and gas). This is not the sign of a healthy budget. Mobilization will also put another damper on the economy, accelerating the effect sanctions have caused.

[N35t0r]

Relevant r.e. nukes:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/23/little-military-sense-for-nuclear-weapons-ex-russian-general

Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine unless NATO puts boots on the ground, two retired Russian generals have told Al Jazeera.

“If the collective West attacks Russia with its conventional armed forces, then Russia’s response could very well be nuclear since there is no comparison between the West’s conventional military potential and that of Russia,” said Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired lieutenant general who served as the Russian military’s top arms control negotiator from 2001 to 2009.

[Geronimo]

Relevant r.e. nukes:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/23/little-military-sense-for-nuclear-weapons-ex-russian-general

NATO has been holding a direct attack against Russia in reserve as a response to a Russian WMD attack. If these generals think a Russian nuclear attack would only occur in response to a direct NATO attack then the greatest danger would seem to be a non nuclear WMD attack by Russia leading to the Apocalypse escalation spiral.

[N35t0r]

NATO has been holding a direct attack against Russia in reserve as a response to a Russian WMD attack. If these generals think a Russian nuclear attack would only occur in response to a direct NATO attack then the greatest danger would seem to be a non nuclear WMD attack by Russia leading to the Apocalypse escalation spiral.

I don't think a NATO retaliation that only involves bombings/cruise missile strikes (no boots on the ground) will trigger a Russian WMD strike.

In any case, the alternative is to not do anything as a response to a WMD attack, which is even worse.

[Geronimo]

I think the greatest danger in all of this is to give any concessions whatsoever in recognition of threat of nukes being used. Doing so places a massive incentive in front of nuclear blackmail. It's far less risky to chance the apocalypse through ignoring nuclear blackmail than it is to invite it through caving into it.

[Geronimo]

It looks like China hasn't wasted much time in consummating its new relationship with Russia. I can hardly believe how stupid it was for Russia's interests to start this war in Ukraine.

[Proteus_MST]

Well,according to a tweet these are the weapons that, at least some of them, get:
https://twitter.com/LarsWienand/stat...90834628513792

They are old, rusted, AKM ... with a caliber that isn't used in Russia anymore since the 1970s
(the AKM have 7,62x39, the Russians switched to 5,45x39 in the 1970s, however)
https://twitter.com/winkelsdorf/stat...21444700930049

So, if the pics are genuine, the weapons may be safer (for the wielder) to be used as a blunt melee weapon, instead of shooting with it
(especially if the remaining 7,62x39 ammo supplies are in the same shape, as the weapons themselves)

Or, maybe even better, throwing the weapon aside and surrendering to the Ukrainians on the first contact with the enemy

[Geronimo]

For decades the soviet union and then Russia maintained a policy of storing obsolete weapons, just in case I guess, rather than selling or scrapping them. Perhaps it will become apparent soon whether or not the effort was wasted.

[Dauphin]

Beats their old policy of give the gun to one person and the ammo to another person.

[BlackCat]

Meh, long and for some boring, but actually quite interesting :

[BeBMan]

Or, maybe even better, throwing the weapon aside and surrendering to the Ukrainians on the first contact with the enemy

Don't forget all those stealth fighters and T14 MBTs. They may be so well hidden that it's hard to find them tho....

[pchang]

Surrendering is now a crime in Russia, punishable by 10 to 15 years in prison (depending on the kind of surrender).

[BeBMan]

:HappyStalin: