Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Aeson]

You need some kind of organization to set up debates if there are going to be debates.

(I don't think there need to be debates myself.)

[Jon Miller]

I think one is useful. If more than one is useful, it depends on the candidates and the meta. In recent meta, I don't think that more than one has been useful. I don't really see how more than one is likely to be useful with Trump as one of the candidates.

JM

[Dinner]

An interesting tidbit I heard, which is a hard number, but which still doesn’t really illuminate election results as there are so many anti-Trumpers as well as former Democrats who are going their own way... Of total voters Republicans now our number democrats by one point (28% to 27%). This is the first time since 2004 this has happened. I do note independents have surged as well now making up most of the remainder.

So that maybe a wash but does show the country is moving to the middle right as democrats are moving to the extreme left. Long term a less polarized electorate is probably a good thing for the country as a whole.

[ricketyclik]

That's an interesting take. From what I read it seems that former Democrat voters are largely moving to the left of the Democrats.

[Dinner]

I guess we will find out but from what I am seeing it appears a lot of centrists have decided the Dems have gone too far left. They also are very upset about the riots, Democratic Party support for the riots, as well as Democrats refusing to prosecute rioters.

[Dinner]

The other big problem I see is that a month of two ago Democrats were claiming they would be +50% on early voting yet in most states Democrats are only +15% to +20% in early voting while in states like Michigan and Texas Republicans are actually up on early voting returns. Now, I don’t think all of those registered Dems or Republicans are voting straight party line (some will no doubt be cross party) but it is telling that Dems only have 2/5ths of the early voters they expected so far. The other big concern for Dems is that they relay heavily upon the college vote (23% of all dem votes in 2016, 15% of all dem votes in 2018, yet so far only 11% of early voting in 2020). Yet Dems have shut down all colleges in 2020 so we can expect many college students won’t be there for the GOTV efforts.

That will create a huge disadvantage for them.

[Kidlicious]

You need some kind of organization to set up debates if there are going to be debates.

(I don't think there need to be debates myself.)

There doesn't really have to be but the candidates can just work it out together. It would be better for Republicans.

[Kidlicious]

Debate was supposed to be about foreign policy. It should have been about that and corruption in government.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/19/trump-campaign-manager-challenges-commission-for-changing-topics-of-final-debate/

[Dinner]

The Biden campaign is either being extra cautious or it doesn’t believe the poll results.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/18/biden-campaign-memo-warns-trump-neck-and-neck-in-several-key-states/

[Berzerker]

I still dont know who will win, judging by yard signs in and around town I'd say Biden will win. I've actually seen more Biden signs than Trump. Now Topeka aint what I'd call deep red and we elected a Hispanic female Democrat as Mayor last time, but I still expect Trump to win the state easily. It'll come down to a few swing states, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump has a chance, I'm not hearing the fat lady singing yet.

[Kidlicious]

Whoever bets on Biden is a fool. Can't tell, but the polls are fake.

[Egbert]

What if the election is fake and you get a fake President?

[Kidlicious]

Yes

[Lancer]

I do not know who will win this election but for Taiwan's sake I hope its Trump.

[EPW]

Trump is the one with a secret Chinese bank account.

[Uncle Sparky]

Trump is the one with the 'Made in China' products.

[Ming]

Clear proof that Trump's best demographic is the "less educated"

[Uncle Sparky]

How is that not illegal? That type of slander would never have been allowed in Canada.

[Dinner]

Early voting in many states just isn’t looking good for Democrats. Conventional wisdom is that Dems need a 2:1 lead (if not 2.5:1) in early voting as older more conservative voters who tend to vote in person tend to break towards Republicans and tend to vote in person. Yet in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Michigan the early voting returns are just 1:1 dead even or slightly with Republicans in the lead. The state to watch will be Pennsylvania as it is hard to see Trump winning without PN but I haven’t heard anything about early voting results in PN yet.

[EPW]

What are you basing this on?

[Dinner]

Early voter data I have read (it just identifies how many ballots from people registered from each party not how they actually voted which is still secret until Election Day) and claims made by pundits on news shows about the need for a big early voting leading by Dems.

[EPW]

yeah I'm not convinced. But we shall see.

[Dinner]

It is worth noting that even Biden’s campaign manager has no admitted that poll numbers for Biden “are inflated”. I.E. the polling companies are over sampling Democrat voters, under sampling Republican voters, and how they are normalizing the numbers seem to be systematically over estimating Democrats still more.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8850745/amp/Joe-Bidens-campaign-manager-says-poll-numbers-favoring-Democrat-inflated.html

[EPW]

She's just trying to get more dems to vote dude

[Lancer]

I expect a Trump landslide, nothing less. While I'm not a fan of Trump, for the Asia Pacific I believe a Biden victory would be disastrous, with the invasion of Taiwan beginning soon after the election. If half of what we hear about Hunter's "business dealings" with China is true, Biden is bought.