Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Ming]

Yep... he has proven over and over again with his posts that he hates women.

[pchang]

I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

[BeBMan]

They probably don't allow men and women to ...ahh...fraternize at the troll-farm.

[Uncle Sparky]

Most female trolls are men.

[Kidlicious]

Yep... he has proven over and over again with his posts that he hates women.

[Dinner]

This election is getting harder and harder to figure out. Yes, the polls are saying nationally that Biden is up by 8 points but for the polls to get it right they have to poll not just registered voters but likely voters. They have to sample correctly when 20% of Republicans refuse to answer questions by pollsters. They have to normalize results based up expected voter turn out and who knows what voter turn out will be as this is the first time states are sending mail in ballots to everyone? Then you have an average of 20% of mail in ballots which typically get rejected because signatures don’t match, ballots are unsigned, or not properly filled out.

That is even before we get to fraud because states like California are mailing out 25 million ballots when there are only around 19 million voters in the state. The state is literally sending ballots to millions of dead people and millions of people who moved out of state but the state never updates voter rolls intentionally. Add on that Democrats in California literally legalized ballot harvesting which is wide open for fraud and is illegal in most states.

Then there is the non-hard data indicators like how Trump gets massive cheering crowds where ever he goes while Biden has a dozen or so people show up at most of his events. It is just weird to me.

[Kidlicious]

I don't trust pollsters at all. Many right-wingers don't. That's why we don't talk to them.

[Kidlicious]

Third debate is a total joke. No more journalists. They are just all horrible. Forget the stupid debate commission. Why do you need a stupid debate commission?

[Egbert]

A stupid debate commission is needed for stupid debates.

[Aeson]

You need some kind of organization to set up debates if there are going to be debates.

(I don't think there need to be debates myself.)

[Jon Miller]

I think one is useful. If more than one is useful, it depends on the candidates and the meta. In recent meta, I don't think that more than one has been useful. I don't really see how more than one is likely to be useful with Trump as one of the candidates.

JM

[Dinner]

An interesting tidbit I heard, which is a hard number, but which still doesn’t really illuminate election results as there are so many anti-Trumpers as well as former Democrats who are going their own way... Of total voters Republicans now our number democrats by one point (28% to 27%). This is the first time since 2004 this has happened. I do note independents have surged as well now making up most of the remainder.

So that maybe a wash but does show the country is moving to the middle right as democrats are moving to the extreme left. Long term a less polarized electorate is probably a good thing for the country as a whole.

[ricketyclik]

That's an interesting take. From what I read it seems that former Democrat voters are largely moving to the left of the Democrats.

[Dinner]

I guess we will find out but from what I am seeing it appears a lot of centrists have decided the Dems have gone too far left. They also are very upset about the riots, Democratic Party support for the riots, as well as Democrats refusing to prosecute rioters.

[Dinner]

The other big problem I see is that a month of two ago Democrats were claiming they would be +50% on early voting yet in most states Democrats are only +15% to +20% in early voting while in states like Michigan and Texas Republicans are actually up on early voting returns. Now, I don’t think all of those registered Dems or Republicans are voting straight party line (some will no doubt be cross party) but it is telling that Dems only have 2/5ths of the early voters they expected so far. The other big concern for Dems is that they relay heavily upon the college vote (23% of all dem votes in 2016, 15% of all dem votes in 2018, yet so far only 11% of early voting in 2020). Yet Dems have shut down all colleges in 2020 so we can expect many college students won’t be there for the GOTV efforts.

That will create a huge disadvantage for them.

[Kidlicious]

You need some kind of organization to set up debates if there are going to be debates.

(I don't think there need to be debates myself.)

There doesn't really have to be but the candidates can just work it out together. It would be better for Republicans.

[Kidlicious]

Debate was supposed to be about foreign policy. It should have been about that and corruption in government.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/19/trump-campaign-manager-challenges-commission-for-changing-topics-of-final-debate/

[Dinner]

The Biden campaign is either being extra cautious or it doesn’t believe the poll results.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/18/biden-campaign-memo-warns-trump-neck-and-neck-in-several-key-states/

[Berzerker]

I still dont know who will win, judging by yard signs in and around town I'd say Biden will win. I've actually seen more Biden signs than Trump. Now Topeka aint what I'd call deep red and we elected a Hispanic female Democrat as Mayor last time, but I still expect Trump to win the state easily. It'll come down to a few swing states, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump has a chance, I'm not hearing the fat lady singing yet.

[Kidlicious]

Whoever bets on Biden is a fool. Can't tell, but the polls are fake.