Okay, what can we realistically expect from a Trump presidency?

[Elok]

My own feelings on the matter oscillate wildly. There are just too many unknown variables. At the heart of it, for me, is my thought that Trump represents a reaction, a turning back from the way things have gone. Culturally, socially, economically, whatever. The people who put him in office have certain expectations, and he will one way or another have to meet or satisfy those expectations. If he was under the impression that he could pull them together into a movement and then throw them away once they were no longer useful, he's badly mistaken. They now know that they have power.

But I don't think that's how he relates to them. In his own way, he is very much like the white-hot angry core of his followers: people laugh at and look down on him, and he wants to hurt these people. Also to put up big gold statues of himself with gigantic hands, which is where their interests differ, but they do have interests in common as well. I am pretty confident that he will have some focus on hurting his movement's enemies. I don't know how successful he will be.

The more interesting question is how everyone else will react. I have some hope that most Dems will realize what went wrong and adapt their strategy to some extent. I am also nearly certain that some subset of Dems will not get the memo and continue being horses' asses about this, throwing big angry protests that occasionally turn into riots, calling everyone bigots, and playing scorched-earth culture war as if it were still 2014. Which will play very neatly into Trump's hands. This could play out very badly, or it might work out for the better. Who knows?

I'm in the 50% of the country that couldn't be bothered to vote, either way. We shouldn't be forgotten. A quarter of the country said "Hillary's America is not my America," another quarter said "Trump's America is not my America," and everybody else said **** That Noise and saved their gas money, because we didn't see much point in living in either one. Or any real chance of affecting the outcome.

[C0ckney]

Yeah, if the last year has shown us anything, the futility of predicting should be at the top of the list.

Thank god companies that do it for a living get paid regardless of the results.

you should stop spending money on models and polling and just make it all up. who knows, results might even improve.

[onodera]

Ben Carson is the one that scares me the most. He's a Pence-grade retrograde. Well, him and Palin.

[rah]

In all fairness, this election was closer than the margin of error statistically. That's always going to be a problem.
And I personally believe a lot of people didn't want to admit they were going to vote for Trump.
They didn't want to be labeled as stupid white trash.

[Giancarlo]

Let's not forget European Union Association Agreement that destroyed their industry (because EU doesn't need their industrial stuff). And they use their yearly agricultural duty free quotas in march-april. Basically, duty free EU quotas for Ukraine are set at about 10% of their export to EU, as if to mock Ukraine.


Actually, down 1.8% (1.2% and then 0.6% year-on-year) in last two years because of sanctions, and industrial production is already growing. Given the sanctions and oil prices, it's not that bad.

No. Your economy is down about 6% for the year. I have posted the figures before. Your economy is slumping and next year it could be even worse.

[Jon Miller]

people who have a right to live and work in the US, whether they be citizens or legal immigrants, surely have a way to prove the same. so they would be asked to produce this proof within a certain (short) time period. if this is really difficult (and i don't think it is; it isn't in other countries), then perhaps an ID card could be introduced for legal immigrants/temporary workers, which they would be required to carry with them. as for deportation, if someone suspected of being an illegal immigrant fails to prove their right to live/work, then they get deported to their country of origin. as you say, it may be necessary to get the courts to rubber stamp such decisions, but this needn't take long; it doesn't elsewhere.

It can take well over a year, including a lot of effort/money. The latter poorer people often do not have.

There are many people who do not speak english/etc (and who are poor) who were born in the US. How can you identify someone who wasn't born in the US unless they are a legal immigrant?

Legal immigrants are easy to keep track off. It is knowing whether someone is an illegal immigrant or a born citizen which is difficult.

JM
(Source: relatives experience)

[Kidlicious]

It comes down to whether or not you are going to have a real immigration policy or not. Other than that it's just propaganda.

[C0ckney]

It can take well over a year, including a lot of effort/money. The latter poorer people often do not have.

There are many people who do not speak english/etc (and who are poor) who were born in the US. How can you identify someone who wasn't born in the US unless they are a legal immigrant?

Legal immigrants are easy to keep track off. It is knowing whether someone is an illegal immigrant or a born citizen which is difficult.

JM
(Source: relatives experience)

are there really many native born amercians who lack birth certificates?

[Jon Miller]

Yes.

Including siblings of mine.

JM

[Jon Miller]

Here says that 1/3 of American citizens in the 1940s did not have birth certificates.

http://cliotropic.org/blog/talks/undocumented-citizens-aha-2010/

It is much better now.

My sibling's problem was due in part to being adopted, which causes problems with the Birth Certificate. So when the IDs were lost it took a lot of hassle and months of time to rebuild them. But if the ID problem came some years later (like if our mom was no longer alive), or if my sibling and our mom had been estranged it would have been much more difficult (probably not impossible, but easily over a couple of years of hassle).

JM

[Jon Miller]

http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/d/download_file_39242.pdf

25% of African-Americans of voting age lack a photo-ID. Over 10% of voting age Americans lack proof of citizenship (in their name).

JM

[giblets]

Gee, I wonder why some states made that a requirement to vote

[C0ckney]

that's very surprising to hear for a first world country. even here you'd be hard pressed, except in some seriously backwards rural areas, to find people born in the last 30 years or so without a birth certificate, and even then pretty much everyone has a ID card.

do you have any idea of the numbers?

edit: i see you've posted some. again, that's very surprising. we learn something every day.

[Jon Miller]

The last document I linked to said roughly 13 million adults, mostly making less than 25k per year.

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

25% of African-Americans of voting age lack a photo-ID. Over 10% of voting age Americans lack proof of citizenship (in their name).

Do they lack the ID because they choose not to get one or because they can't. Lumping two different groups of folks together really doesn't do much to advance your argument. I knew a few people who lacked ID. It had nothing to do with them not being able to get it but choosing not to get it done.

Edit, just checked through the source. The source makes no attempt to ask the question, "would you be able to obtain this information in a day's time?"