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  • #451
    Originally posted by rah View Post
    Don't count your chickens in IL yet.
    Every day a new article comes out with a different tale. From last week



    Still too close to call. Maybe when we get closer it one may open up some distance. But to assume one is a sure winner at this point, is just being overly optimistic.
    1. The poll referenced here was conducted Jul. 22, before the conventions and Trump's national nosedive.

    2. It's a Republican pollster doing "let's try to make our voters feel better" poll. They've got a pretty bad rating from Nate Silver (C+). Internal campaign polls like this leaked to the public are meaningless. This has all the hallmarks of a "Don't believe yer lyin' eyes" poll conducted by a candidate in trouble.
    Tutto nel mondo è burla

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    • #452
      This guy is like Ben. He probably doesn't have any degree.
      To my knowledge, Kentonio has never posted his educational qualifications.
      Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
      "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
      2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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      • #453
        Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
        To my knowledge, Kentonio has never posted his educational qualifications.
        Neither will I. I have absolutely no need to hand out personal information to win an internet argument with a couple of intellectual midgets.

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        • #454
          Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
          To my knowledge, Kentonio has never posted his educational qualifications.
          What qualifications? Lol
          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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          • #455
            Originally posted by Boris Godunov View Post
            1. The poll referenced here was conducted Jul. 22, before the conventions and Trump's national nosedive.

            2. It's a Republican pollster doing "let's try to make our voters feel better" poll. They've got a pretty bad rating from Nate Silver (C+). Internal campaign polls like this leaked to the public are meaningless. This has all the hallmarks of a "Don't believe yer lyin' eyes" poll conducted by a candidate in trouble.
            1: The article was from last week.
            2. They referenced at least 7 sources if you actually read it.
            3. The point was just to show it was close and probably too early to call a definitive winner.

            Duckworth has been getting some bad press. And believe it or not, Kirk gets some respect here. But I do expect the election to be really close and wouldn't place any bets on it.
            It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
            RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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            • #456
              Page Not Found (404) | USA TODAY
              http://college.usatoday.com/2016/08/15/young-voters-flee-donald-trump-in-what-may-be-historic-trouncing-poll-shows/


              "The survey shows Clinton trouncing Trump 56%-20% among those under 35, though she has failed so far to generate the levels of enthusiasm Sanders did — and the high turn-out that can signal — among Millennials.

              In the new survey, half of those under 35 say they identify with or lean toward the Democrats; just 20% identify with or lean toward the Republicans. Seventeen percent are independents, and another 12% either identify with another party or don’t know."

              Trump scores worse among voters under the age of 35 then any nominee in history. Hillary is consolidating support among younger voters at a relatively strong margin though more remains to be done. The other important point is 72% of Bernie Sanders supporters said they will vote for Hillary and a great deal of those are in fact independents/decline to state, so that too is important.

              If young people get out to vote in big numbers, and I feel that could very well happen considering how nasty Trump is... this could be a total landslide win for Hillary. She has basically locked up support among every group except white males (without a college degree). And even among that group she ranks very, very close.

              The slew of bad polling from various swing states that have essentially started to push those states into more strong democrat territory and now this... endless bad news for Trump.
              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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              • #457
                Originally posted by rah View Post
                1: The article was from last week.
                Which just shows what a wretched source it is, since the poll they referenced is from July 12th (not 22nd, typo there). Go on and look it up, that outfit (which doesn't even have it's own website that I can find) released their poll in July, nothing since then.

                2. They referenced at least 7 sources if you actually read it.
                The only direct quotes come from Republican "sources." This ****ty news outlet actually appears to be a Republican propaganda outfit, based on the articles there. One example of their misleading ways: They talk about "Political Pro" citing an internal poll showing Kirk two points ahead, making it sound like an additional poll... but no, it's the same poll. Basswood Research is that poll. They're a GOP polling outfit, designed to give favorable numbers to Republican candidates.

                The point was just to show it was close and probably too early to call a definitive winner.
                And the point I'm making is that 1 internal GOP poll from a polling outfit whose purpose is to provide positive narratives for their candidates is not enough of a data point to claim the race is that close. The preponderance of data shows Duckworth is ahead, and that's the actual pundit consensus. That's especially important to remember since there's been no polling in IL since prior to the conventions.
                Tutto nel mondo è burla

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                • #458
                  As far as the case with Duckworth, I'd really have to see another poll first. Or two. I cannot base any sort of opinion off that one rather unreliable poll.
                  For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                  • #459
                    The only direct quotes come from Republican "sources." This ****ty news outlet actually appears to be a Republican propaganda outfit, based on the articles there. One example of their misleading ways: They talk about "Political Pro" citing an internal poll showing Kirk two points ahead, making it sound like an additional poll... but no, it's the same poll. Basswood Research is that poll. They're a GOP polling outfit, designed to give favorable numbers to Republican candidates.
                    Yeah, upon further review, you are correct. I expected better from Crain's, but they did indeed use that older poll also. (and even claimed them as a quality one).
                    We'll see when it gets closer. Tammy still has some baggage that could be targeted with enough money, but she is currently in the lead for now.
                    It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                    RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                    Comment

                    • #460
                      It just seems the polling is getting worse and worse for Trump. Hillary has scored double digit leads in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado, along with improving numbers in Florida.

                      And that isn't the only problem for Trump. Paul Manafort potentially broke US federal law and took money from a pro-Russian party in Ukraine. He allegedly funneled that money into two lobbying groups in Washington. In addition, another top Trump advisor Rick Gates is also implicated.

                      AP Sources: Manafort tied to undisclosed foreign lobbying
                      https://www.yahoo.com/news/ap-sources-manafort-tied-undisclosed-foreign-lobbying-110611707--election.html
                      Donald Trump’s campaign chairman helped a pro-Russian governing party in Ukraine secretly route at least $2.2 million in payments to two prominent Washington lobbying firms in 2012, and did so in a way that effectively obscured the foreign political party’s efforts to influence U.S. policy. The revelation, provided to The Associated Press by people directly knowledgeable about the effort, comes at a time when Trump has faced criticism for his friendly overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It also casts new light on the business practices of campaign chairman Paul Manafort.


                      This is just snowballing and is turning into yet another PR disaster. And if these allegations are true, several in Trumps campaign could be under federal investigation.
                      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                      • #461
                        Only the diehards don't believe it's past the tipping point.
                        It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                        RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                        • #462
                          The main question I have is whether or not the Republicans lose the Senate too. That would end the Federal appointment gridlock.
                          “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                          ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

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                          • #463
                            Originally posted by pchang View Post
                            The main question I have is whether or not the Republicans lose the Senate too. That would end the Federal appointment gridlock.
                            Losing the Senate is likely, but unlikely to end the gridlock for as long as republicans control the House unfortunately.
                            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                            • #464
                              Actually I prefer that Hillary doesn't have free reign.

                              But as the court leans more to the left, we'll have to listen to Ben preaching that every decision that they make is wrong and not constitutional.
                              It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                              RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                              Comment

                              • #465
                                I want Hillary to have a huge free reign. I love that some Republicans hate her so much. They will hate her even more after they see what she is capable of doing.
                                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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