Farage crushes Cameron

[Dauphin]

Plus the idea of Milliband as PM makes me want to be sick in my own mouth.

Miliband is not the worry for me - he'll be an ineffectual caretaker and the status quo won't be too bad. It's the Balls up man that worries me.

[MikeH]

I will bet you that UKIP won't poll 25%+ at the next general election.

The victor gets to make the loser wear an avatar of my choosing for 2 weeks.

[Ben Kenobi]

I mean, it is true that Cameron is in trouble but not for any of the reasons you think. It's all 100% anti-EU motivated and Cameron just has to move that way a bit to kill off UKIP by cutting off their only policy point. I hope he doesn't, but he might.

Couple things here - he has no 'brand' right now. Anti-EU is the place to be with the financial challenges. Austerity is the correct policy, but unpopular, so this will lead to a French outcome where the spending continues apace and the deficits apace under a Labor government, and the pain passed off to the young folks like you and me.

The one thing this is not - is good news for Cameron. If he's lost his base, he's done for. I don't think he'll have the brains to try to go against the EU - and I don't think he'll do that either. He'll keep following the ship and go down with it. .

Or keep a coallition together. And they aren't strong enough to win a general election now.

Exactly my points. This is Cameron's ship for lack of a better word. They've struck his battleship and he's got no room to maneuver.

[Dauphin]

Also, there is probably no current MP who can mount a leadership challenge without the party imploding into infighting between the pro and anti-europe camps. Or keep a coallition together. And they aren't strong enough to win a general election now.

The big impact low risk event would be a prominent Tory(ies) defecting to UKIP at an inopportune time for the Tories.

[MikeH]

Miliband is not the worry for me - he'll be an ineffectual caretaker and the status quo won't be too bad. It's the Balls up man that worries me.

Miliband is totally Labour's John Major.

[Ben Kenobi]

I will bet you that UKIP won't poll 25%+ at the next general election.

The victor gets to make the loser wear an avatar of my choosing for 2 weeks.

No bet, I want to see how they do in a safe Tory seat as well.

[kentonio]

The mistake that you're making is assuming that everyone believes as you do and that those in opposition are 'homophobic', etc. Support increasing for the least conciliatory party indicates that those who don't support gay marriage do have a platform. And they are choosing to make their voice heard by abandoning the Conservative party. I predicted this, and it's happening. It will continue to happen as the folks in the UK that feel left out and not represented when they hear the UKIP is the only party that speaks for them.

Gay rights was a big fight a decade or so back and back then it was important enough to people to make a difference. These days, apart from a small number of religious crazies, for the most part no-one cares. Gays were allowed in the military, and all the naysaying and dire predictions came to absolutely nothing. Gay friendly TV shows became commonplace. More and more people came out as openly gay, and people got to see that gays are disappointingly no more exciting or dangerous than anyone else.

This isn't rocket science. The UKIP has an established brand which includes opposition to gay marriage, getting out of the EU, etc, things which only they stand for.

People care an awful lot more about the EU than they do about gay marriage.

What does the conservative party stand for?

Lots of things. None of them have anything to do with you however, and you wouldn't understand them, so I feel no need to educate you.

Where's a source for that? Eurostat shows spending level at 739 billion. FY 2011.

It takes a special sort of idiot to not be able to tell the difference between a Euro and a Pound.

You? This is not hard.

Nope, it really isn't.

[Ben Kenobi]

Same things they always have which is basically small government, low taxation.

Which the UKIP is too.

They are also, under Cameron, socially liberal which despite what you might think reflects the majority view in the country but they've historically often been more socially liberal than the Labour party.

Which is a realignment which will happen soon the other way. Already starting to happen.

[MikeH]

Couple things here - he has no 'brand' right now. Anti-EU is the place to be with the financial challenges. Austerity is the correct policy, but unpopular, so this will lead to a French outcome where the spending continues apace and the deficits apace under a Labor government, and the pain passed off to the young folks like you and me.

The thing is even Cameron and Osborne are smart enough enough to know that we can't take the economic hit of leaving the EU without making sure we negotiate extremely good trade agreements. Which is sort of where they are heading. I don't think it's the way forward, but if we do leave the EU that has to be the way if we are to maintain the status of The City.

[MikeH]

No bet, I want to see how they do in a safe Tory seat as well.

You missed the joke there.

[Dauphin]

Heads you win, tails I lose.

[MikeH]

It irks me that I pretty much have to agree with you. The Eton thing has also really rubbed me up the wrong way. Whoever thought that was a great idea at a time of austerity needs their thick heads examining.

I voted Lib Dem. I'm crushingly disappointed.

[Dauphin]

I got BoJo's brother parachuted in as my MP.

[kentonio]

Ok. Last election: Con 36.1, Labour 29, LibDem 23.

Are you out of your mind you silly little man? South Shields was held by David Milliband, the Labour leaders brother for over 10 years until he decided to retire, causing this by election. The last time it was anything other than a Labour or Liberal seat was 1852 when it was held by the Whigs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_S...onstituency%29

You just can't resist the compulsion to tell barefaced lies, can you?

[Ben Kenobi]

Gay rights was a big fight a decade or so back and back then it was important enough to people to make a difference.

Right. Which is why the fact that the Catholic church is growing while the CoE falls apart. Nobody cares.

I'll stop you right here and now. People do care. Some very important ones too. This is an important issue. Arguing that 'nobody cares' because you believe your own position has consensus is bull****. You care very much about social liberalism. At least be honest here. Social issues are very important to you.

These days, apart from a small number of religious crazies

Right, like Catholics apparently. You folks are already trying to get the Catholic church to do them, which is going to be good for a laugh. England, always the good friend of the Church. What's next a de-emancipation act again?

people got to see that gays are disappointingly no more exciting or dangerous than anyone else.

I don't recall the UK ever executing gay people like they used to do with Catholics. Perhaps they've gotten more tolerant over the years.

It takes a special sort of idiot to not be able to tell the difference between a Euro and a Pound.

Well, I'm used to the pound being slightly more than near-parity with the Euro. Says it all really!

Is there any evidence that spending has actually gone down? Austerity is pretty much a fictional buzzword that means, exactly what, I'm not quite sure.