Farage crushes Cameron

[Ben Kenobi]

Nah, we've always had a fair number of people who could be described as 'fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists'. The current surge in UKIP numbers though is artificially high due to the unpopularity of a government dealing out austerity measures. A lot of people will not vote Labour under any circumstances but want to register a protest vote against the government.

End of the day UKIP are a bunch of tossers who will sink back down into their hole soon enough.

Looks real enough to me. In any case, UKIP is also against further integration with the EU. UKIP at 25 nationwide spells doom for Cameron. Unless of course you believe UKIP + CON > LAB + LIBDEM.

Also, good to know that your brand of 'conservativism' is getting absolutely crushed by the electorate.

[MikeH]

Imagine that - coming out and getting relegated to fourth behind the UKIP. Cameron's done. He just doesn't know it yet.

Where were they relegated to fourth?

[MikeH]

Better the full deal than Labour light.

What is Labour light supposed to refer to?

[MikeH]

65/3 < 35/1.

What austerity? UK hasn't cut any spending whatsoever.

Cameron's sold out his base to fish with Labour. The result? Labour and UKIP up. This doesn't take a genius.

[Ben Kenobi]

Are you on crack? What is that even supposed to mean?

Two fractions with an inequality.

Simply, that the fraction 65 over 3 is less than 35 over 1. Even if we accept your assertion as fact, with two other liberal parties, it makes no sense for the Conservatives to abandon their electoral base. Unless of course you're asserting that the 35 are primarily labour voters. I suspect getting the mushy middle to vote for their third preference is a much worse political strategy then having a consistant message.

What austerity? UK hasn't cut any spending whatsoever.

You haven't. UK has kept increasing spending under 'austerity', rather than any actual cut in government spending. If that's austerity, I'd hate to see what you'd call what's coming up.

You are right, it doesn't take a genius to make completely stupid and illogical statements that don't stand up to any kind of scrutiny. Quite the opposite in fact.

Apparently they don't teach math in the UK.

[Ben Kenobi]

What is Labour light supposed to refer to?

To Cameron and the conservative party? I thought that evident. Apparently not.

As for them getting relegated to fourth, they were third in a seat they used to hold. Lib Dem is competitive in areas where the Conservatives are not. If the UKIP outpolls them in the areas that the Conservative party is fairly strong, then it's possible they could earn 25 percent of the vote and lead into a Labor landslide thanks to votesplitting.

As I said, Cameron is doomed.

[MikeH]

In any case, UKIP is also against further integration with the EU.

UKIP basically only have one policy which is UK out of the EU.

[kentonio]

Two fractions with an inequality.

Simply, that the fraction 65 over 3 is less than 35 over 1. Even if we accept your assertion as fact, with two other liberal parties, it makes no sense for the Conservatives to abandon their electoral base. Unless of course you're asserting that the 35 are primarily labour voters. I suspect getting the mushy middle to vote for their third preference is a much worse political strategy then having a consistant message.

The mistake you're making (and I'm willing to forgive it on the basis on your mental retardation) is to assume that gay issues are important enough to the anti camp to actually swing their voting preferences. What makes it particularly funny is that UKIP despite appearing homophobic by British standards are still firmly in support of civil partnerships, leaving those who hate homosexuality with literally no significant political party to turn to.

You haven't. UK has kept increasing spending under 'austerity', rather than any actual cut in government spending. If that's austerity, I'd hate to see what you'd call what's coming up.

Stop telling lies. Spending as a % of GDP has fallen each of the last 3 years from 47.7% in 2009-10 to 43.1% 2012-2013. It's also fallen in actual terms this year from £693.6b to £674.3b.

Apparently they don't teach math in the UK.

It appears there's only one person in this thread so far who can't count.

[MikeH]

To Cameron and the conservative party? I thought that evident. Apparently not.

If anything New Labour were Conservative Light. Labour now have moved back to the left, and are picking up votes again.

As for them getting relegated to fourth, they were third in a seat they used to hold.

EASILY DISPROVED LIE!! They have never held South Shields, one of the safest labour seats in the country. Source

Lib Dem is competitive in areas where the Conservatives are not. If the UKIP outpolls them in the areas that the Conservative party is fairly strong, then it's possible they could earn 25 percent of the vote and lead into a Labor landslide thanks to votesplitting.

As I said, Cameron is doomed.

1. All the parties are strong in certain regions.
2. People don't vote the same in local elections. Compare Lib Dem vote percentages in local and european elections to general elections.
3. I most certainly hope it brings in a Labour landslide. This current lot are awful*.

*not even based just on policy differences, they are just totally incompetent. The number of policies they've announced then retracted when everyone points out how stupid they are is astounding.

[MikeH]

anti camp

hope that was intentional.

[Ben Kenobi]

The mistake you're making (and I'm willing to forgive it on the basis on your mental retardation) is to assume that gay issues are important enough to the anti camp to actually swing their voting preferences. What makes it particularly funny is that UKIP despite appearing homophobic by British standards are still firmly in support of civil partnerships, leaving those who hate homosexuality with literally no significant political party to turn to.

The mistake that you're making is assuming that everyone believes as you do and that those in opposition are 'homophobic', etc. Support increasing for the least conciliatory party indicates that those who don't support gay marriage do have a platform. And they are choosing to make their voice heard by abandoning the Conservative party. I predicted this, and it's happening. It will continue to happen as the folks in the UK that feel left out and not represented when they hear the UKIP is the only party that speaks for them.

This isn't rocket science. The UKIP has an established brand which includes opposition to gay marriage, getting out of the EU, etc, things which only they stand for. What does the conservative party stand for?

Stop telling lies. Spending as a % of GDP has fallen each of the last 3 years from 47.7% in 2009-10 to 43.1% 2012-2013. It's also fallen in actual terms this year from £693.6b to £674.3b.

Where's a source for that? Eurostat shows spending level at 739 billion. FY 2011.

It appears there's only one person in this thread so far who can't count.

You? This is not hard.

[kentonio]

3. I most certainly hope it brings in a Labour landslide. This current lot are awful*.

*not even based just on policy differences, they are just totally incompetent. The number of policies they've announced then retracted when everyone points out how stupid they are is astounding.

It irks me that I pretty much have to agree with you. The Eton thing has also really rubbed me up the wrong way. Whoever thought that was a great idea at a time of austerity needs their thick heads examining.

I've also been quite concerned about a taint of religious thinking sneaking back into politics from a few quite prominent Tories. That alone would be enough for me to abstain next election if they keep it up. Then again the social liberalism of the new Tories is very promising.

Plus the idea of Milliband as PM makes me want to be sick in my own mouth.

[MikeH]

I mean, it is true that Cameron is in trouble but not for any of the reasons you think. It's all 100% anti-EU motivated and Cameron just has to move that way a bit to kill off UKIP by cutting off their only policy point. I hope he doesn't, but he might.

Also, there is probably no current MP who can mount a leadership challenge without the party imploding into infighting between the pro and anti-europe camps. Or keep a coallition together. And they aren't strong enough to win a general election now.

But if there is a by-election in safe Tory seat, we'll have to see what Boris does.

[Ben Kenobi]

If anything New Labour were Conservative Light. Labour now have moved back to the left, and are picking up votes again.

Apparently drugs are good.

EASILY DISPROVED LIE!! They have never held South Shields, one of the safest labour seats in the country.

Ok. Last election: Con 36.1, Labour 29, LibDem 23.

With UKIP at 25 nationwide, that's 23 percent from CON. Assuming another 5 to Labor you get something like this:

LAB 34
UKIP 25
LIBDEM 20
CON 10.

As I said, UKIP at 25 means Cameron is done.

3. I most certainly hope it brings in a Labour landslide. This current lot are awful*.

It will, be assured of that. Like I said, Cameron is done.

[MikeH]

What does the conservative party stand for?

Same things they always have which is basically small government, low taxation.

They are also, under Cameron, socially liberal which despite what you might think reflects the majority view in the country but they've historically often been more socially liberal than the Labour party.