Let's make a deal!

[Ben Kenobi]

Ok Polytubbies!

Behind door number 1, 2 or 3 - there is a car, or a goat.

You've chosen door number 1. I've opened door number 3 and it is a goat.

I'm offering you a choice! Do you stick with door number 1 or switch to door number 2?

[loinburger]

I'll switch to door number 3 - I've already got a car, but I want that goat.

[Nikolai]

I wouldn't switch, but I've heard it's the right answer.

[MichaeltheGreat]

I'll switch to door number 3 - I've already got a car, but I want that goat.

What if the goat says "sorry, I just don't feel the same about you?"

[loinburger]

I plan on eating the goat, so I'd be a bit unnerved if it felt the same way about me

[regexcellent]

I'll switch to door number 3 - I've already got a car, but I want that goat.

.

[Dinner]

There is a place down by the border in Imperial Beach just south of Chula Vista which does Texcoco style pit roasted goat and it is awesome! They have these big brick lined pits they've dug out of the ground which they cover with a steel top and the whole pre-marinated goat is wrapped in banana leaves and left to cook in the pit for 8 hours as it slowly roasts over the hot oak coals. I have never particularly liked goat meat but done the right way the stuff is moist and delicious. I believe the place was even on David Zimmerman's show on the food network.

http://www.aquiestexcoco.com/

If you miss the exit you'll probably end up in Mexico as it is so close to the border.

[Dinner]

Here you go. This is how you roast a goat.



It starts at around 2:30m.

[b etor]

Ok Polytubbies!

Behind door number 1, 2 or 3 - there is a car, or a goat.

You've chosen door number 1. I've opened door number 3 and it is a goat.

I'm offering you a choice! Do you stick with door number 1 or switch to door number 2?

This comma usage drives me crazy and confuses me.

[regexcellent]

Thanks oerdin, next time I am roasting a goat that will come in handy.

[SlowwHand]

Stick with my pick.

[loinburger]

This comma usage drives me crazy and confuses me.

[-Jrabbit]

If I didn't have strict policy of never using the "thanks" function, I would surely employ it for this most excellent post, loin.

[Hauldren Collider]

Isn't this just a classic conditional probability problem? If it's the Monty Hall problem, you always switch. It's pretty simple to work out the conditions:

You have a 2 in 3 chance of picking a goat initially. Your choice does not change when the second goat is revealed, so there is still a ~66% chance your choice is a goat. Which means that if you always switch, you have a ~66% chance of switching to the car.

[SlowwHand]

Incorrect.