CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

So a centrist (red tory) would be better but the party suffers from Tea Party disease and can only elect from the extremes? I can agree with the sentiment but I am surprised to hear you say it. I remember you chastising me a few years ago for claiming the Conservatives have yet to reclaim the progressives. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the PC's (Progressive Canadians) are still running separate from the Conservatives in this province.

I didn't say they couldn't. I indicated that they chose probably the best candidate of those possible at the time of the merger. It was pretty clear that the leadership was going to go to someone from the Reform/CA branch of the family. I don't think that will be the case going forward.

Progressive Canadians? Did they poll more than half a percent in any riding? Did they even run anywhere in 2008? I've gone through the first ~25 ridings in Ontario and have not spotted any PCs. They don't have any press releases on their web site since Jan 2010. Are you seeing ghosts?

OTOH, Harper has made steady gains since 2004. He's overcome most of the scare tactics the Liberals used effectively for many years to keep themselves in power. The Conservatives would never win in Quebec, it was said. The Conservatives would never win in Toronto, it was said.

"Steady gains"? Bigger minorities? The government will pass it's "shelf life" before securing a majority under that plan.

The problem for the Conservatives isn't that we haven't had a chance to evaluate and make our opinion of Harper (as more time would allow), but rather that we have already formed an opinion of Harper and it is not favourable. More time will just reinforce the image. You can put a nice sweater on him but it doesn't change who he is.

That's been the case since day one. 'We' don't like Harper, so he can't win. Problem for that point of view is that 'we' are a steadily diminishing part of the electorate. Ignatieff is reduced to ridiculous shrieking to an ever diminishing base that buys that crap. I'm imagining at some point in the campaign his campaign bus will roll up, but it will be a smallish hatchback and out will pour he, Martin, and Chretien in red noses and large shoes.

It is true though that Harper has spent much of his limited shelf life winning over voters from the centre. It remains to be seen how long he can last. If he wins a majority I have no idea how long he will be around. If he doesn't, then...

I'm not a good judge of election spending campaigns as I don't watch TV and rarely listen to radio.

I did mention earlier I am not seeing a lot of action in this riding (aside from leaders blowing in and out) in the way of local candidate engagement or literature.

I'm watching quite a bit of CBC and CTV and not seeing Conservative commercials.

[Ben Kenobi]

The worst thing people can do is vote. Costs us money. Gives them money for annoying ads.

Which is why I usually vote CHP. They won't reach the threshold.

[Asher]

If there's one party that deserves to lead the secular government, it sure is the Christian Heritage Party.

[Asher]

CHP gets less votes every year. 26,000 nationwide last time.

Poor Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well I don't live in a competitive riding. If I were still in Vancouver, I'd probably vote conservative.

[Ben Kenobi]

CHP gets less votes every year. 26,000 nationwide last time.

Poor Ben.

I've got a party membership. I'm well aware of their shortcomings. There's significant support for their policies which are to the right of Harper, but the CHP is a terribly run party.

My issue with them and one of the biggest issues is that they define their policies in such a way to exclude Conservative Catholics, and that's by choice.

[Wezil]

I didn't say they couldn't. I indicated that they chose probably the best candidate of those possible at the time of the merger. It was pretty clear that the leadership was going to go to someone from the Reform/CA branch of the family. I don't think that will be the case going forward.

Looks like a Harris refugee will be next (the moderates have been retiring). That's not an improvement.

Progressive Canadians? Did they poll more than half a percent in any riding? Did they even run anywhere in 2008? I've gone through the first ~25 ridings in Ontario and have not spotted any PCs. They don't have any press releases on their web site since Jan 2010. Are you seeing ghosts?

No ghosts, but I do see their lawn signs (particularly north of Toronto). These are the former Progressive Conservatives but were forced to change their name because the new Conservatives don't like the message their mere existence sends to the public. Do they poll large? No, but they are Conservatives voters that don't vote Conservative. I wonder how many former PC's are still sitting on their hands?

McKay's betrayal was legendary and the Conservatives are still dealing with the fallout from it.

That's been the case since day one. 'We' don't like Harper, so he can't win. Problem for that point of view is that 'we' are a steadily diminishing part of the electorate. Ignatieff is reduced to ridiculous shrieking to an ever diminishing base that buys that crap. I'm imagining at some point in the campaign his campaign bus will roll up, but it will be a smallish hatchback and out will pour he, Martin, and Chretien in red noses and large shoes.

It is true though that Harper has spent much of his limited shelf life winning over voters from the centre. It remains to be seen how long he can last. If he wins a majority I have no idea how long he will be around. If he doesn't, then...

"We" are looking at yet another Conservative minority. Will that same hatchback transport the "won over" Conservatives?

[Fake Boris]

When was the last time they posted a video of a bird ****ting on Harper?

[notyoueither]

I would not call Liberal campaigns 'clean' going way back.

Is campaigning against a 5 cent gas tax and then imposing a 25 cent tax clean?

Is campaigning to 'axe 'da tax' and then doing nothing clean?

Last election, the troops in the street' ads, were they clean?

The purple dinosaur was clean?

The Liberals wrote the book on 'how to gain power and keep it.' The Conservatives have discovered that Bob Stanfields and Joe Clarks can't win.

We are getting exactly the Conservatives we deserve. Harper and his tactics are the response to the Liberals, the media, and the gullibility of large segments of the electors.

[notyoueither]

Looks like a Harris refugee will be next (the moderates have been retiring). That's not an improvement.

Somehow I am doubting that you have a very good handle on who will win a leadership contest that isn't yet underway.

Progressive Canadians? Did they poll more than half a percent in any riding? Did they even run anywhere in 2008? I've gone through the first ~25 ridings in Ontario and have not spotted any PCs. They don't have any press releases on their web site since Jan 2010. Are you seeing ghosts?

No ghosts, but I do see their lawn signs (particularly north of Toronto). These are the former Progressive Conservatives but were forced to change their name because the new Conservatives don't like the message their mere existence sends to the public. Do they poll large? No, but they are Conservatives voters that don't vote Conservative. I wonder how many former PC's are still sitting on their hands?

McKay's betrayal was legendary and the Conservatives are still dealing with the fallout from it.

I'm thinking you need a better argument.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Canadian_Party

They ran 10 candidates and garnered a total of 5,920 votes in 2008. They are down to nine candidates this time.

You seem to be assuming that red Tories are going to sit on their hands when it comes time to replace Harper. You need a better argument than a rump running nine candidates, led by Sinc Stevens, that hasn't issued a press release in over a year. The Marijuana Party has a larger footprint.

That's been the case since day one. 'We' don't like Harper, so he can't win. Problem for that point of view is that 'we' are a steadily diminishing part of the electorate. Ignatieff is reduced to ridiculous shrieking to an ever diminishing base that buys that crap. I'm imagining at some point in the campaign his campaign bus will roll up, but it will be a smallish hatchback and out will pour he, Martin, and Chretien in red noses and large shoes.

It is true though that Harper has spent much of his limited shelf life winning over voters from the centre. It remains to be seen how long he can last. If he wins a majority I have no idea how long he will be around. If he doesn't, then...

"We" are looking at yet another Conservative minority. Will that same hatchback transport the "won over" Conservatives?

Please provide opinions other than yours on this ongoing conservative schism.

[Wezil]

The evidence is in the election results.

Either that or you must accept the country is moving left and there just aren't enough conservative supporters to garner a majority anymore.

How else do you explain the performance against Dion?

[notyoueither]

OK, so, we are dealing with the Wezil thesis, unsupported by any other theory, pundit, or opinion.

You are discounting the undecideds and uncommitteds.

You are discounting the fact that even the Conservatives themselves had been afraid to discuss 'majority.'

You have a very strange reading of federal politics, and you continue to ignore the gains the Conservatives have made since the merger.

The Conservatives have never, ever, commanded a level of partisan support that would give them a majority if only all the faithful turned up to vote. Conservative governments, even minorities, have depended on significant amounts of nonpartisan support.

The failure against Dion lies in fear and hatred of Harper, the Conservatives own timidity, and a poor final part of the campaign. IMO.

[notyoueither]

There's also this party called the BQ. You may have heard of them.

[Wezil]

I used small "c" for a reason.

Anyway, if you are interested in a more recent topic...

It seems you were right when you worried all Harper's "coalition" talk would legitimize the idea. Layton and now Iggy have both giving interviews setting out a scenario wherby 2nd place Libs would end up in government.

It should be interesting to see if this is enough to finally move some polls.

[notyoueither]

It was always legitimate (constitutionally) what Harper did was remove the basis for any possible Conservative objection (even if weak).

What remains to be seen is how strong their convictions will be when Layton and Iggy are faced with the reality of depending on the BQ for support for their project, and then assuming they go ahead, the effect on the election after this one. I'm under the impression that writing cheques to Quebec had lost its allure even in Ontario.