CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[Fake Boris]

Duceppe today is campaigning in Hochelaga (francophone working class Montreal).

He won that riding by 13,000 ballots in 2008.

It looks like the Ekos numbers could be real. Could you see Harper campaigning in Calgary a week before the election?

[Asher]

Could you see Harper campaigning in Calgary a week before the election?

Yes.

Conservatives find it harder to rope in Alberta vote

The New Democrats are surging nationally, the Liberals are pushing to win back an old stronghold, and a revolt is taking hold in a once safe Tory seat.

Things aren’t as easy as they used to be for Conservatives in Alberta.

Strong races have emerged in four of the province’s 28 ridings, which the Conservatives swept in 2006 and where they won all but one seat in 2008.

The challenges have stirred up campaigns that have typically been thought to be foregone conclusions federally. Underscoring the importance of this development, New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton will host a rally on Wednesday evening – not in seat-rich Ontario or British Columbia, but in Edmonton, where only three years ago, few thought his party ever had a chance.

Among the four races to watch, only one has emerged as a three-way battle: Edmonton Centre, the one-time constituency of former Liberal deputy prime minister Anne McLellan.

Ms. McLellan was knocked off in 2006 by Laurie Hawn, a retired Air Force Lieutenant-Colonel who made a name for himself by relentlessly knocking on thousands of doors to defeat Ms. McLellan.

He easily won re-election in 2008, when overall voter turnout and Liberal support both plunged by about 10,000 votes. Liberals stayed home. But now, they’re rallying behind Mary MacDonald, 52, Ms. McLellan’s former deputy chief of staff, who is giving Mr. Hawn a run for his money.

But she’ll have to keep up with him.

“Don’t ever miss a house,” Mr. Hawn, 63, said on Monday as he zigzagged down a street, regularly jogging and slowed up only by his knee brace.

At the doors, Mr. Hawn carried the party banner on every issue, including the military mission in Afghanistan (“A tough story, but a success story”), a committee finding Conservative leader Stephen Harper in contempt of Parliament (A “kangaroo court,” Mr. Hawn scoffed), the budget and economy (“We own those files”) and opposition complaints about an untendered fighter-plane contract (“Lies,” he told one homeowner).

But even a dynamo encounters opposition.

“I’m a little torn about what to do. Do I vote for the man, or the party? I’m getting a little fed up with the party,” Bonnie Barbeau, a nurse and mother of two, told him on Monday. “Laurie’s a good guy. Laurie might have good ideas [but]… I don’t like the partisan vote thing.”

That disenchantment is what had the Liberals eyeing this riding, which includes the downtown core.

“The base is certainly back. It will be a sprint to the finish,” Ms. MacDonald said. However, she’s not the only challenger, and any disenchanted voters are being split – she and New Democrat Lewis Cardinal, 49, have both been campaigning since 2009.

Ms. MacDonald insists the Liberals are “the only other player in the game.” Mr. Cardinal dismisses that as a myth.

“The Liberals are saying if you don’t vote for us, you vote for Laurie Hawn… it doesn’t add up,” he said.

Another battleground is Edmonton Strathcona, where incumbent New Democrat Linda Duncan is seeking to fend off Conservative challenger Ryan Hastman. Both camps expect the race will go down to the wire.

In Edmonton East, New Democrats are hoping to pull off another upset. Former provincial NDP leader Ray Martin is taking on five-term MP Peter Goldring, a Conservative.

Mr. Martin, 69, returned to politics in 2008 and took a surprising 31 per cent of the vote, well short of Mr. Goldring’s 51 per cent but nearly identical to Ms. Duncan’s totals in 2006. She won on her next try, and Mr. Martin hopes to do the same. His former riding and that of current provincial NDP leader Brian Mason lie within Edmonton East.

“Put it this way – we’re very encouraged,” he said.

Mr. Goldring suggested that a vote split would help the Conservatives, saying the Liberals are “surging” and “doing their part in the riding.” He defended his record, including spearheading a low-income housing project in the city.

Finally, a tight race between two conservatives has emerged again in Edmonton-Sherwood Park, where many locals are supporting Independent James Ford as a rebuke of Conservative Tim Uppal. They accuse Mr. Uppal of being parachuted into the typically safe seat. Mr. Uppal narrowly won in 2008, and Mr. Ford is challenging him again.

All told, the campaign’s final days have brought a rare political fervour to the province.

“Unfortunately, there’s this stereotype across the country that’s wrong – they think everybody [in Alberta] is a right-wing conservative. We don’t all just rally around a right-wing voice,” Mr. Martin said, nonetheless adding: “We know it’s going to be close if you take a Conservative on in Alberta.”

[Fake Boris]

Is he going there?

[Asher]

No idea if he is. He has a bit more territory to cover than the simpleton Quebeckers do.

[Wezil]

He's in Windsor today. An NDP stronghold.

[notyoueither]

I'm not saying it's going to happen for the NDP, but the Bloc did go from 0 to 54 seats in Quebec in 1993 and the Progressive Conservatives went from 1 to 58 in 1984...

If the seat projection were based on 50% support (the PCs in '84 got 50.2, the Bloc in '93 got 49.3) I would not say it is outrageous. The number used for the projection in 38.7 so I would suggest that indeed something is being projected.

It is not impossible for the NDP to get there, since the Bloc seems to have nothing left in the tank and the Liberals and Conservatives are not growing, but the numbers are being sensationalised.

[Wezil]

Stephen Harper tried to reassure Canadians Tuesday that taxpayers won’t get soaked by a rising price tag for 65 stealth fighter-bombers the Conservatives are buying from the Americans.

The Department of National Defence said this week it’s been warned to expect the per-unit price of the F-35 jets might be higher than the $75-million it’s been advertising to Canadians.

This follows two developments that could spell trouble for the Conservatives: a recent Pentagon report detailing rising production costs for the jets as well as leaked U.S. defence paper that suggests 30 years of maintenance costs could be three times higher than Ottawa has acknowledged.

The Conservatives say they’ve built extra room for cost overruns into the $9-billion purchase price they released to Canadians last summer.

Mr. Harper, campaigning in Quebec’s Eastern Townships Tuesday, said it’s incorrect to match up U.S. reports with Canadian estimates. His party has long insisted Canada is immune from rising research and development costs.

“Many of these reports you are citing are comparing apples to oranges,” Mr. Harper said. “Our experts have put out their detailed figures and everything we’ve seen is within those figures and their contingencies, the contingencies that have been allowed.”

The man lies like a rug. Don't let facts get in the way.

[notyoueither]

Bureaucracy
Media
Polling firms

Canada must be a mighty scary place for Conservatives with so many people and groups out to get them. No wonder they practice the politics of fear.

Don't be an idiot.

[Wezil]

Nice rebuttal.

[notyoueither]

I'm not interested in rebutting a ridiculous strawman.

[Wezil]

EKOS pretty consistently underestimates Conservative support, from what I've observed.

Also, several Liberals can see the obvious, Ignatieff is a dead man walking. Jeffery Simpson began the post mortem late last week. What remains is an anti-Harper bias.

You said it, not me.

[notyoueither]

I pointed out that Frank Graves is a known Liberal partisan as is Jeffrey Simpson?

Tell me, does it come as a shock to you that people have ideological leanings?

[Asher]

You can tell Jeffrey Simpson is a Liberal by his picture. The smarminess...

[Wezil]

I pointed out that Frank Graves is a known Liberal partisan as is Jeffrey Simpson?

Tell me, does it come as a shock to you that people have ideological leanings?

After conversing with you, not at all.

Still waiting for your evidence that Graves inflated NDP numbers.

[notyoueither]

If the topic was Ipsos Reid, I would point out that their numbers for the Conservatives are usually on the high side.

Are you going to be shocked if I tell you Conrad Black is a monarchist and Ezra Levant will likely vote Conservative? Gasp!