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  • thanks.

    also this is pretty much the most poignant analysis of what occured:




    [...]
    Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission was simply an attempt to provoke the Israelis [3]. That was certainly the case. The mission was designed to demonstrate that the Israelis were unreasonable and brutal. The hope was that Israel would be provoked to extreme action, further alienating Israel from the global community and possibly driving a wedge between Israel and the United States. The operation’s planners also hoped this would trigger a political crisis in Israel.

    A logical Israeli response would have been avoiding falling into the provocation trap and suffering the political repercussions the Turkish NGO was trying to trigger. Instead, the Israelis decided to make a show of force. The Israelis appear to have reasoned that backing down would demonstrate weakness and encourage further flotillas to Gaza, unraveling the Israeli position vis-à-vis Hamas. In this thinking, a violent interception was a superior strategy to accommodation regardless of political consequences. Thus, the Israelis accepted the bait and were provoked.

    [...]

    The Turkish flotilla aimed to replicate the Exodus story or, more precisely, to define the global image of Israel in the same way the Zionists defined the image that they wanted to project. As with the Zionist portrayal of the situation in 1947, the Gaza situation is far more complicated than as portrayed by the Palestinians. The moral question is also far more ambiguous. But as in 1947, when the Zionist portrayal was not intended to be a scholarly analysis of the situation but a political weapon designed to define perceptions, the Turkish flotilla was not designed to carry out a moral inquest.

    Instead, the flotilla was designed to achieve two ends. The first is to divide Israel and Western governments by shifting public opinion against Israel. The second is to create a political crisis inside Israel between those who feel that Israel’s increasing isolation over the Gaza issue is dangerous versus those who think any weakening of resolve is dangerous.

    [...]
    It is vital that the Israelis succeed in portraying the flotilla as an extremist plot. Whether extremist or not [4], the plot has generated an image of Israel quite damaging to Israeli political interests. Israel is increasingly isolated internationally, with heavy pressure on its relationship with Europe and the United States.

    In all of these countries, politicians are extremely sensitive to public opinion. It is difficult to imagine circumstances under which public opinion will see Israel as the victim. The general response in the Western public is likely to be that the Israelis probably should have allowed the ships to go to Gaza and offload rather than to precipitate bloodshed. Israel’s enemies will fan these flames by arguing that the Israelis prefer bloodshed to reasonable accommodation. And as Western public opinion shifts against Israel, Western political leaders will track with this shift.

    [...]
    The Israelis will argue that this is all unfair, as they were provoked. Like the British, they seem to think that the issue is whose logic is correct. But the issue actually is, whose logic will be heard? As with a tank battle or an airstrike, this sort of warfare has nothing to do with fairness. It has to do with controlling public perception and using that public perception to shape foreign policy around the world. In this case, the issue will be whether the deaths were necessary. The Israeli argument of provocation will have limited traction.

    [...]

    Israel is now in uncharted waters [10]. It does not know how to respond. It is not clear that the Palestinians know how to take full advantage of the situation, either. But even so, this places the battle on a new field, far more fluid and uncontrollable than what went before. The next steps will involve calls for sanctions against Israel. The Israeli threats against Iran will be seen in a different context, and Israeli portrayal of Iran will hold less sway over the world.

    And this will cause a political crisis in Israel. If this government survives, then Israel is locked into a course that gives it freedom of action but international isolation. If the government falls, then Israel enters a period of domestic uncertainty. In either case, the flotilla achieved its strategic mission. It got Israel to take violent action against it. In doing so, Israel ran into its own fist.

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    • The people on those boats no longer count as civilians when they disobey orders to divert
      If there is no sound in space, how come you can hear the lasers?
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      • Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
        The people on those boats no longer count as civilians when they disobey orders to divert
        Not sure it works like that.

        They're still civilians. They're not even in Israeli territory.
        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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        • Originally posted by Hauldren Collider View Post
          The people on those boats no longer count as civilians when they disobey orders to divert
          Uhhhh, no.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sirotnikov View Post
            thanks.

            also this is pretty much the most poignant analysis of what occured:

            http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100...public_opinion

            That's a pretty good summary.
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            • I wouldn't call it a summary. It's a narrative. The motivations that are given as fact in the 'summary' are speculation. It's a nice narrative, potentially plausible, but not fact or summary.
              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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              • Originally posted by Sirotnikov View Post
                We've been outsmarted and shot ourselves in the foot at the same time.

                We should have stopped the flotilla by other means, avoiding the need to raid a huge 600 people boat.

                Even if we did, we should have left the big boat to the end, collect better intelligence and have means to rescue the soldiers in case of confrontation.

                The problem is that even Israel was fooled and no one expected any confrontation. Once the soldiers slid down the rope they became captives of the crazed mob, and the IDF had little choice but use force.
                Exactly right IMO.

                I don't see any decent reason why they had to be on the boat in the first place; not only does it make little sense in light of what happened at the scene, but it is a diplomatic catastrophe. It's dreadful timing given Israel's current international relations, especially with Turkey.

                Comment


                • Israel's relations with Turkey mean **** all.

                  The opinions of the masses in Europe and the US may mean something.
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                  • Originally posted by Prince Asher View Post
                    I wouldn't call it a summary. It's a narrative. The motivations that are given as fact in the 'summary' are speculation. It's a nice narrative, potentially plausible, but not fact or summary.

                    You and Wezil should get a room.
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                    • That's the nicest thing you've said to me in quite some time.
                      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                      • It doesn't have to be an expensive room. Something with no insects would be nice.
                        Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                        "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                        He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                        • Originally posted by Albert Speer View Post
                          My point is that HC is a douche.
                          QFT. Him and Oerdin have reached Nediverse levels.
                          “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
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                          • You're going to miss Ned when he's gone.

                            Wait a minute. He is gone. Is he gone? Has he been around here lately?
                            Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                            "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                            He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                            • The operator of the Ned DL has moved on to other DLs you may be familiar with.
                              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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                              • Originally posted by Prince Asher View Post
                                You've carefully avoided the point that they were not in Israel's territorial waters, as far as I can see. The fact that they were in the economic zone doesn't mean they can board other ships using your logic that they were in Israeli waters.

                                Seems now the argument is it WAS in international waters, but this is fine because Israel arbitrarily decided it was a blockade which means they could attack it under some 1994 non-binding treaty, even then they appear not to have fully abided by it.

                                Do you recall the Turbot War?
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