CanPol - Fall election: Do we have an issue yet?

[ShaneWalter]

Ben, according to this Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-te...on#cite_note-6 which cites a StatsCan spread sheet (I don't know how to link to the spreadsheet, so you will have to go to the article, then see the cite, it is #7), in 2003 0.7% of abortions were after 20 weeks.

The amount proportion of abortions performed drops drastically as the weeks increase. At 13-16 weeks you have 7.2%. At 17 - 20 weeks you have 2.5%. Finally, at 20+ weeks you have only 0.7%. Judging by that, I would say that the data supports my mom's contention that abortions in the third trimester are extremely rare. Even the 0.7% after 20 weeks, I'd guess most of those are cases where the baby would not survive to delivery or the mother's health is endangered.

I don't think evidence supports the idea that women are just deciding at 24 weeks "Aw shucks, I've had enough of being pregnant."

[Ben Kenobi]

In 2003 0.7% of abortions were after 20 weeks.

There are 100,000 abortions done yearly here in Canada, which makes for over 700 late term abortions. Compare that with a rate of 570 homocides a year here in Canada, the late term abortions would double our homicide rate.

Judging by that, I would say that the data supports my mom's contention that abortions in the third trimester are extremely rare.

I wouldn't consider greater than our homicide rate as 'extremely rare'. It would be the most common form of homocide in all of Canada.

Edit, we are talking about banning abortions done past the 12 week, which would bar a full 10 percent of abortions done here in Canada, or 10,000 a year. That's a huge number.

[Flubber]

Ben

with all due respect I think you are seriously deluded if you think an appeal to the right would ever get Harper CLOSER to a majority. Harper already essentially sweeps the west so additional votes there accomplish nothing. To hold as you seem to do that Harper can improve their standing by moving to the right in his focus, you have to think that this position will inprove their position markedly in Quebec and urban Ontario.

Instead, I think for every righty that is incentivized to vote again in the rural west you would lose an urban vote

[Asher]

Two things Flubber:

1) There is no "due respect" with Ben
2) "seriously deluded" is putting it mildly

[Ben Kenobi]

with all due respect I think you are seriously deluded if you think an appeal to the right would ever get Harper CLOSER to a majority. Harper already essentially sweeps the west so additional votes there accomplish nothing. To hold as you seem to do that Harper can improve their standing by moving to the right in his focus, you have to think that this position will inprove their position markedly in Quebec and urban Ontario.

Instead, I think for every righty that is incentivized to vote again in the rural west you would lose an urban vote

Well that's a good argument. He was only 12 short of a majority last time.

These are the seats outside of Quebec, all rural areas. More than enough for a majority. The reality is he doesn't need Toronto and with 10 seats in Quebec City, he has enough to carry over for a majority, just picking off some rural seats in the west and in ontario, particularly northern ontario.

1. Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
2. Nanaimo-Cowichan
3. North West Territories
4. Yukon
5. New Westminster-Coquitlam
6. Newton-North Delta
7. Skeena Bulkley Valley
8. BC Southern Interior
9. Edmonton Strathcona
10. Wascana
11. Winnipeg South-Centre
12. Churchill
13. Sault Ste. Marie
14. Thunder Bay Rainy River
15. Thunder Bay Superior
16. Timmins-James Bay
17. Nipissing
18. Algoma Manitoulin, Kapukasking
19. Nickel Belt
20. Guelph
21. London Fanshawe
22. London North Centre
23. Welland
24. Ajax-Pickering
25. Kingston and the Islands
26. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
27. Malpeque

[Flubber]

Two things Flubber:

1) There is no "due respect" with Ben
2) "seriously deluded" is putting it mildly

I give everyone some civility. Its how I roll .

[Flubber]

Ben so your thought is that he just needs to find an issue to get a few more rural seats? Thats even more deluded. Ignatieuf should perform better than Dion (could anyone perform worse?) and focus on the abortion issue is likley to lose him some urban seats

This is all if I accept your base premise that any those rural seats are more likely to swing CPC with this issue. I doubt that

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben so your thought is that he just needs to find an issue to get a few more rural seats?

The thought is to increase turnout of those who stayed home last election.

Thats even more deluded. Ignatieuf should perform better than Dion (could anyone perform worse?) and focus on the abortion issue is likley to lose him some urban seats

Again, the majority of his base and support is rural/suburban. He can improve his standing in rural areas and garner the same amount of votes without having to ram his head against 'fortress Grit' in Toronto. Seriously, it's insane how dominant Fortress Grit is in Toronto.

He isn't going to win folks in cities. It won't matter if he's the second coming of Christ, they will not vote for Harper. Ever. His best hope is to go for the disaffected folks in Northern Ontario and rural areas, pick up another 15-20 seats, and have a modest majority. Picking off holdouts in these areas, not to mention in Newfoundland, he can get there.

This is all if I accept your base premise that any those rural seats are more likely to swing CPC with this issue. I doubt that

Why wouldn't they in those ridings in particular? We are not talking about the urbanites in the core of Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal.

[Flubber]

Ben-- your position seems to be that moving to place some restrictions on abortions will be important enough to enough people to change the elections

these people are

1. sitting out currently
2. So incentivized by the act of some partial restrictions on abortion to change their voting pattern
3. In swing ridings in sufficient numbers to maqke a difference
4. not counterbalanced by voters that lose an similar number of seats (I can just imagine the attack ads now-- even raising the issue allows the whole harper is scary campaign to come as a big tactic. Lots of people don't see or hear the nuances

[Ben Kenobi]

1. sitting out currently
2. So incentivized by the act of some partial restrictions on abortion to change their voting pattern
3. In swing ridings in sufficient numbers to make a difference

I'm talking about the silent majority. What we know is that they live in primarily rural/suburban areas, all characterised by the basket I listed for you. All he needs is several thousand in each riding to turn out and then bob's your uncle.

4. not counterbalanced by voters that lose an similar number of seats (I can just imagine the attack ads now-- even raising the issue allows the whole harper is scary campaign to come as a big tactic. Lots of people don't see or hear the nuances

Great, where are the attack ads going to be directed? The core of Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto. That's not going to hurt Harper.

What are people going to think when they pull out the "Harper is scary ads", and they find out that Harper is advocating 3 month limits on abortion and zero federal funding for abortion? They are going to treat it as the usual liberal lies and garbage. And I think Harper's going to be running the Iggy ads 24-7, which help him around the clock. Why is an evil american calling Harper scary?

[ShaneWalter]

There are 100,000 abortions done yearly here in Canada, which makes for over 700 late term abortions. Compare that with a rate of 570 homocides a year here in Canada, the late term abortions would double our homicide rate.

Except, as I said, it is entirely unreasonable to conclude that very many (perhaps even any?) of these 700 late term abortions are elective. Most (perhaps all?) of them are probably cases where the mother's life is at risk and/or the pregnancy is not expected to survive to full term.

I wouldn't consider greater than our homicide rate as 'extremely rare'. It would be the most common form of homocide in all of Canada.

I don't know anybody who has been murdered. Yes, I would say that murders are fairly rare in Canada. This isn't Iraq or South Africa.

Edit, we are talking about banning abortions done past the 12 week, which would bar a full 10 percent of abortions done here in Canada, or 10,000 a year. That's a huge number.

A proposal to ban abortions past the 12th week absolutely would not get support in Canada. It should not get support.

EDIT: And anyway, even though I'd consider 700 to be fairly rare, that doesn't even matter. You are equivocating here. "We" aren't talking about the 12th week. What I was responding to originally was you stating that abortions can be legally performed in Canada into the 9th month. If that happens at all, it is extremely, extremely rare. Probably less than 10 a year. I'd bet most abortion doctors would never perform an abortion after even 27 weeks in Canada.

EDIT2: To clarify, I'm not saying that most doctors would *refuse* to perform an abortion after 27 weeks. If the situation called for it (mother's life is threatened/baby is not expected to survive to birth) they probably would. What I'm trying to say is that abortions after the 27th week are probably so rare that most doctors would just never ever be asked to perform them in the first place.

[ShaneWalter]

I'm talking about the silent majority. What we know is that they live in primarily rural/suburban areas, all characterised by the basket I listed for you. All he needs is several thousand in each riding to turn out and then bob's your uncle.



Great, where are the attack ads going to be directed? The core of Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto. That's not going to hurt Harper.

What are people going to think when they pull out the "Harper is scary ads", and they find out that Harper is advocating 3 month limits on abortion and zero federal funding for abortion? They are going to treat it as the usual liberal lies and garbage. And I think Harper's going to be running the Iggy ads 24-7, which help him around the clock. Why is an evil american calling Harper scary?

If Harper tried to ban abortions after 12 weeks, and got rid of funding for abortions, it would cost the CPC seats in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan used to elect about an even number of CPC, Liberal and NDP. Recently it has changed to where almost all constituencies elect CPC. (This last election, Goodale and I think one Liberal up North was elected, the rest were CPC).

Abortion isn't an issue that only the latte sippers in Toronto care about. There was a huge feminist movement located in Saskatchewan, and while the movement is no longer near as strong, all it'd take would be for a PM to talk about restricting abortions and you would have every female in the province that doesn't usually vote deciding to run out and vote against the CPC. You are severely underestimating how much of a rallying issue this would become for the women's movement.

[Ben Kenobi]

Except, as I said, it is entirely unreasonable to conclude that very many (perhaps even any?) of these 700 late term abortions are elective.

Oh? Do you have any evidence to suggest this? From what I can see all you can say is that 700 were done, and not any breakdown as to why.

Most (perhaps all?) of them are probably cases where the mother's life is at risk and/or the pregnancy is not expected to survive to full term.

Well, lets be clear here, we aren't talking about a small number. We are talking close to a percent of all abortions, which is close to about a third of a percent of all pregnancies. For example, ectopic pregnancies as an incidence are about 1 in every 250 pregnancies.

However, the problem for you is that ectopic pregnancies are not a late term complication.

What complication associated with pregnancy in the late term cannot be solved through an emergency c-section to save the life of both the mother and the baby? We are talking after 20 weeks here, when the unborn child is viable outside the womb.

I don't know anybody who has been murdered. Yes, I would say that murders are fairly rare in Canada. This isn't Iraq or South Africa.

So you don't think doubling our homocide rate would be significant?

A proposal to ban abortions past the 12th week absolutely would not get support in Canada. It should not get support.

The poll I posted earlier already showed that over 50 percent of Canadians would support such a ban. Why shouldn't it be supported?

If that happens at all, it is extremely, extremely rare. Probably less than 10 a year. I'd bet most abortion doctors would never perform an abortion after even 27 weeks in Canada.

So you are ok then with abortion up to 27 weeks? Seriously? Your only issue is if the abortion happens after 6 months?

EDIT2: To clarify, I'm not saying that most doctors would *refuse* to perform an abortion after 27 weeks. If the situation called for it (mother's life is threatened/baby is not expected to survive to birth) they probably would.

At 27 weeks, the baby is viable. You can perform an emergency c-section to save the life of the mother and the child.

What I'm trying to say is that abortions after the 27th week are probably so rare that most doctors would just never ever be asked to perform them in the first place.

So why is that number significant? Before that, its perfectly acceptable?

[notyoueither]

If Harper tried to ban abortions after 12 weeks, and got rid of funding for abortions, it would cost the CPC seats in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan used to elect about an even number of CPC, Liberal and NDP. Recently it has changed to where almost all constituencies elect CPC. (This last election, Goodale and I think one Liberal up North was elected, the rest were CPC).

Abortion isn't an issue that only the latte sippers in Toronto care about. There was a huge feminist movement located in Saskatchewan, and while the movement is no longer near as strong, all it'd take would be for a PM to talk about restricting abortions and you would have every female in the province that doesn't usually vote deciding to run out and vote against the CPC. You are severely underestimating how much of a rallying issue this would become for the women's movement.

He'd lose Edmonton and most other urban seats across Canada the Conservatives currently hold.

[notyoueither]

Edmonton Strathcona is rural?