The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by EPW
In Pennsylvania? I'll take that bet. If I win you have to become Asher's personal sex toy.

I doubt that anyone would enjoy that.

JM

[Ben Kenobi]

Too chicken to back up your puffery with just a straight Obama vs. McCain, who-will-win bet?

I made a bet in April or May with Gepap on the exact same thing for an avatar, straight up McCain win.

I ain't backing out on it now.

You weren't here for that though, but still, it's funny that you are challenging me to do what I've already done.

[Ben Kenobi]

This doesn't back up your claim, Ben. It shows that for a very brief time in September, Obama and McCain were tied--not that McCain was ever ahead. This is attributable to McCain's convention bounce, it was never a longterm trend.

I never said he's dominated PA, just that he has lead in PA at some point during the election, and for the most part it's been very tight in PA, except for some outliers which we are seeing now.

Furthermore, compare the composite of this year to 2004. Notice how Bush and Kerry pretty much were neck-and-neck the last two months, while the same trend is NOT in effect now?

Yes, that's true. McCain was leading by 5 points in September, while everyone said Bush's goose was cooked. Oddly enough the results were different from even the exit polling which proclaimed a Kerry win.

After the fine job they did in 2004, I don't really trust them very much.

Obama has a comfortable lead, much more so than Kerry ever enjoyed. So there is again no logic to saying Kerry could win it with less-favorable polling numbers than while Obama can't.

These same pollsters that predicted a Kerry win based on Exit Polls? We'll be seeing less wet dreams as the election approaches.

No, they are not. ONE poll came out showing Obama with a lead.

Electoral vote is declaring it for Obama, which is why they've got the blue outline saying Weak Obama! Based on one poll, which is a massive outlier along with everythign else.

None of the composite polling sites has moved ND into Obama's column, so I have no idea who "they" are, unless it's those voices in your head.

Go look at the earlier post. ND is in blue, which signifies "Weak Obama".

Do I have to draw a big circle for you?

Why are they "ridiculous," Ben? You've yet to establish any rationale as to why ALL the polls are so wrong. McCain led very briefly because of a post-convention bounce. Since then, his numbers has nosedived for a very real and obvious reason: the economy and his erratic response to the crisis.

You are telling me that Obama is more popular then any Democrat since FDR?

I don't believe it. Saying that Obama is gonna win the general by 10 is ridiculous. As you said, it's a very recent event, and we all see how Obama is going to fix the economy by blaming Bush. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama is one of those shorters he's so mad about just because it's in his favour to encourage financial havoc.

What's Obama's magical fairy plan to end the crisis? Bailouts? Didn't work. What is going to have to happen is for prices to return back to about 1997 levels. I said it 6 months ago, and so far I've been right. All of the capital generated by the overleveraged loans is going to vanish, sooner or later, and take down everyone who's been riding on it.

Florida is decidedly a swing state--there's no consistency as to who has won it over the past 4 elections. Wisconsin is much less so--it's gone for the Democrats 4 of 4 times since 1992, and currently Obama is running ahead of Kerry and Gore.

It was won in the Reagan years in 1988, along with the rest of the landslide, and yes, Bush very nearly defeated Kerry there. Florida is trending away from the Democrats, and Obama is weaker there then Kerry was.

The real question for Wisconsin is whether Obama is stronger there then McCain, since McCain is proportionally stronger then Bush was in the rust belt. I don't see anything to indicate a landslide for Obama there on par with Illinois. It's up for grabs.

Because you stamp your feet and declare it so?

If Gore and Kerry could win them, with less-favorable polling numbers leading up to the election, why can't Obama, who is enjoying excellent polling numbers?

McCain is stronger there then Bush. Obama isn't running against Bush, as much as folks would like to believe that is so. McCain polls much better in Minnesota and areas like Washington and Oregon, then Obama does.

And again, just because you deem a state purple doesn't make it so.

So none of the other media folks have declared PA to be "purple?"

No, Ben. The task was to support your claim that there had been elections where a candidate lost every single state that had been deemed toss-up or very close prior to the election in a close election. Of course, this isn't a close election, as Obama is winning handily at the moment.

That might be close to what you think I said, but it's not what I said. I said there are elections in which the EC vote is not representative of the close win, of which Kennedy-Nixon is a prime example.

Considering the vast differences in polling between 1960 and 2008, it's a pretty stupid comparison, anyway.

Yay. Glad you concede the point. I've noticed that whenever anyone cannot disagree they call the argument 'stupid'.

Ben, if all polls show a consistent lead for one candidate, except for ONE which shows the opposite, doesn't that logically tell you that the flaw was with the one outlier, not all the rest?

As you've already stated, that was McCain's supposed convention bounce. I think this is Obama's disaster bounce, and it will drop too.

Beyond that, Zogby is not a reliable pollster. His interactive polls are easily the worst out there, because they don't rely on a random sample of phone voters, but rather internet voting.

Which is why the reliable pollsters 'got it right' in 2004. They are cheerleading for Obama, and anyone who hitches their ride to these polling numbers will go down with them.

While it's still dumb to rely on a single poll for anything, at least then you'd be an inch or too closer to reality.

All I'm saying is that the Zogby poll was immediately hushed up and replaced by other more 'proper' polls, immediately after it came out. That was my first indication that the real news was there.

Don't you see everyone fawning over Obama? If I'm doing inventory for a store, it's not good if the person who is doing the inventory is not independent of the store. You need someone who is a disinterested observer in order to get at the truth.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I made a bet in April or May with Gepap on the exact same thing for an avatar, straight up McCain win.

Sweet .

I hope GePap opens it up for a forum wide vote on your avatar .

[Guynemer]

Ben, relying on the electoral map on electoral-vote.com is a really bad idea. Their electoral map is based only on the most recent poll taken in the state, by anyone who has reported such a poll. It is totally and completely unreliable; you're much better off at fivethirtyeight.com.

Also, your EC prediction, 347-190, doesn't add up. You're missing one vote somewhere; fix it and report back so I can update the OP.

And for the record, the OP will reflect only the original prediction made by each participant.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben, relying on the electoral map on electoral-vote.com is a really bad idea. Their electoral map is based only on the most recent poll taken in the state, by anyone who has reported such a poll. It is totally and completely unreliable; you're much better off at fivethirtyeight.com.

I believe I already said I thought their overall map was unreliable since they are also taking polls from different time periods and displaying them all together.

Also, your EC prediction, 347-190, doesn't add up. You're missing one vote somewhere; fix it and report back so I can update the OP.

It's been changed to 348-190.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Don't you see everyone fawning over Obama? If I'm doing inventory for a store, it's not good if the person who is doing the inventory is not independent of the store. You need someone who is a disinterested observer in order to get at the truth.

You mean like Rasmussen, which does the polling for FOX news? If ever there were a mainstream polling outfit that surely is not pulling for Obama, it's them. And today they have Obama:

Up 5 in Florida
Up 3 in Virginia
Up 3 in Missouri
Up 2 in Ohio
Tied in North Carolina

Or how about Strategic Vision, an overtly Republican polling group that on Thursday had Obama up 14 points in PA, and on Friday had him up 8 points in Florida and 2 in Ohio?

Or how about a FOX poll from Friday that has Obama up 7 nationally?

There are plenty of pollsters who don't seem to be pulling for Obama. Funny how they all agree that he's way ahead.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
You weren't here for that though, but still, it's funny that you are challenging me to do what I've already done.

So what's your bet with me, Ben? Obama vs. McCain. Bring it.

[Ben Kenobi]

Avatars too?

I don't mind.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Up 5 in Florida
Up 3 in Virginia
Up 3 in Missouri
Up 2 in Ohio
Tied in North Carolina

What about Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma? Bill Clinton won all those states when he was elected.

Let us say that the folks in New Orleans can't be too happy with the aid they received from the Republican administration followiing Katrina.

[Ben Kenobi]

Let us say that the folks in New Orleans can't be too happy with the aid they received from the Republican administration followiing Katrina.

Yeah all those underwater busses really put a crimp on Nagen's evac plan.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


What about Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma? Bill Clinton won all those states when he was elected.

Clinton won Oklahoma? Really? Holy ****.

[Imran Siddiqui]

That's why Bill Clinton is the man

edit: He's the man for other reasons! He never won Oklahoma!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Presidential_Election

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996

[Guynemer]

Thought that sounded funny.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Thought that sounded funny.

So did I. But CNN said.