The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Boris Godunov]

Well, at least Ben has company in la-la land.

[Ben Kenobi]

But that's not even true. When has McCain been "given" Wisconsin? Or Pennsylvania, for that matter?

Do I need to quote dates and times?

And if your definition of "given" is one outlier poll, that's just even more delusional, especially given your previous pooh-poohing of polls.

All of the states are considered purple, which means there is a significant chance that they will swing either way.

It is patently ludicrous to look at the state of the election today and think that just because either Bush won the state before (especially since you're giving Kerry states to McCain,

Yes, solid Kerry states like PA (won by two), Wisconsin (won by 0.1), Minnesota (McCain is stronger then Bush here), etc.

which makes zero sense) or that McCain may have had one poll showing him ahead months ago that it means McCain will run the table on every state of that kind.

None of these states are shoe-ins for Obama. I mean you have Florida going for Obama, and I think any state in which Hillary whupped Obama, is unwinnable for Obama. That includes PA, and, surprise, surprise, NH.

And yet your scenario has McCain even more miraculously running the table on states where Obama currently enjoys double-digit leads and where McCain has never enjoyed a polling advantage, ever (IA, PA, WI).

Yes, that means he wins the coinflips, but that doesn't mean that's delusional. There are plenty of close elections that were not close in the EC table because the marginals all went one way.

[Ben Kenobi]

[EPW]

[GePap]

Please Ben, make a bet, and make sure you agree to some ridiculous and outrageous thing if you lose, because it will be hillarious to see you have to do whatever it is you agree to do.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Do I need to quote dates and times?

Please do. Any factual support for McCain ever having a lead in those states would help.

All of the states are considered purple, which means there is a significant chance that they will swing either way.

Considered purple by who? You? Newsflash: If a state has gone Democratic in the past 4 national elections, and the current polling has Obama up +10 or more, it's not a purple state or "coinflip," no matter how many contortions you have to put yourself through to claim as such.

Yes, solid Kerry states like PA (won by two), Wisconsin (won by 0.1), Minnesota (McCain is stronger then Bush here), etc.

Ben, when was the last time a Republican won any of these states?

Obama is polling well ahead of where Kerry was in 2004 at this point, and McCain is well behind Bush. So any assertion that Obama won't at least carry every Kerry state is indeed delusional.

None of these states are shoe-ins for Obama. I mean you have Florida going for Obama, and I think any state in which Hillary whupped Obama, is unwinnable for Obama. That includes PA, and, surprise, surprise, NH.

Why would any state where "Hillary whupped Obama" be unwinnable, but states where Obama whupped Hillary are also not winnable? He cleaned her clock in Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc. And Hillary "whupped" Obama in NJ, NY and CA, but you don't have those going for McCain. There is zero consistency in your argument.

Yes, that means he wins the coinflips, but that doesn't mean that's delusional. There are plenty of close elections that were not close in the EC table because the marginals all went one way.

Cite me one close U.S. presidential election where every single state that was considered a battleground went in one candidate's favor.

And states where Obama is averaging statistically significant polling leads are NOT "coinflips" except to...well, the delusional.

[Ben Kenobi]

0.8	Texas
0.83	Florida
0.84	California
0.88	Georgia
0.88	Arizona
0.9	New York
0.92	Illinois
0.93	North Carolina
0.95	Virginia
0.95	Michigan
0.95	Pennsylvania
0.95	Washington
0.97	New Jersey
0.97	Indiana
0.98	Ohio
1	Maryland
1	United States
1	Wisconsin
1	Tennessee
1.02	South Carolina
1.04	Colorado
1.04	Massachusetts
1.05	Oregon
1.05	Missouri
1.06	Kentucky
1.06	Utah
1.08	Minnesota
1.08	Oklahoma
1.09	Alabama
1.09	Nevada
1.12	Connecticut
1.15	Mississippi
1.18	Louisiana
1.19	Arkansas
1.21	Kansas
1.31	Iowa
1.42	New Mexico
1.5	Idaho
1.55	West Virginia
1.58	Nebraska
1.7	Maine
1.7	New Hampshire
1.75	Hawaii
1.76	Montana
1.94	Delaware
2.11	South Dakota
2.12	Rhode Island
2.46	Alaska
2.63	North Dakota
2.71	Vermont
2.86	District of Columbia
3.22	Wyoming

That's to answer Kuci's question. As of 2007, the least efficient vote is in Texas, and the most efficient is in Wyoming.

[Ben Kenobi]

Please do. Any factual support for McCain ever having a lead in those states would help.

Ok.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html

PA back in September,

They are now predicting North Dakota will go Obama.

I'll willingly take bets with any and all Polytubbies that ND will go McCain.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html

Minnesota has been given to McCain in October.

Wisconsin in September

Michigan in September

Iowa in September

Ohio, still favoured to McCain

New Mexico, McCain has lead at times during May, August, and September

Nevada, McCain lead throughout September.

Missouri, McCain has lead throughout the campaign

Virginia has been a dogfight throughout.

West Virginia, outlier recent polls are showing an Obama victory after plus 55 numbers throughout the campaign.

North Dakota, McCain was at 55 percent here in September. It's obvious. The problem is that the polls now coming out are about 5-10 points in favour of Obama, and that they are the outliers.

We'll see this trend back in November as the pollsters will want to reflect closer to reality and not their wet dreams.

Considered purple by who? You? Newsflash: If a state has gone Democratic in the past 4 national elections, and the current polling has Obama up +10 or more, it's not a purple state or "coinflip," no matter how many contortions you have to put yourself through to claim as such.

Electoral vote.com. It's great that Obama is leading by 10 now according to the polls, In September McCain was leading. You'd better hope these ridiculous polls keep pushing for Obama.

Ben, when was the last time a Republican won any of these states?

Obviously, since Gore won Florida in 2000, Bush won Wisconsin in 2004.

Obama is polling well ahead of where Kerry was in 2004 at this point, and McCain is well behind Bush. So any assertion that Obama won't at least carry every Kerry state is indeed delusional.

No, he isn't, I'm sorry. He's not carrying the rust belt.

Why would any state where "Hillary whupped Obama" be unwinnable, but states where Obama whupped Hillary are also not winnable?

Did I say those states were unwinnable? I said clearly that Florida is unwinnable for Obama, despite the fact that it's right there in your predictions.

There is zero consistency in your argument.

Obviously, it pertains only to purple states, and not deep blue states like Massachusetts.

Cite me one close U.S. presidential election where every single state that was considered a battleground went in one candidate's favor.

Where the EC vote didn't match the proximity of the electoral vote?

Kennedy-Nixon. Kennedy squeaked through in big states which lead to a deceptively large EC margin.

Kennedy had over 303 EC votes, and yet Nixon lost by a popular vote margin of only 100k people. Kennedy's margin was 1,000 votes per EC college seat, which is extremely tiny.

And states where Obama is averaging statistically significant polling leads are NOT "coinflips" except to...well, the delusional.

So the fact that Zogby had McCain up by 5 nationally is wrong while the Obama polls now are the gospel truth?

[EPW]

If you put so much faith in electoral-vote.com, you should at least post their prediction:
346 Obama
181 McCain
11 tied

[Ben Kenobi]

I don't have faith in their national predictions. I do have faith in their poll archive and their trend lines, which isn't as subject to manipulation.

[EPW]

And their trend lines clearly show Obama taking substantial leads in most of the states you mentioned.

For example, Pennsylvania:

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I don't have faith in their national predictions. I do have faith in their poll archive and their trend lines, which isn't as subject to manipulation.

So as long as you can cherry pick single points of data that favor your opinion while activly ignoring any other data points that contradict your claims, you are good, right?

[Ben Kenobi]

So as long as you can cherry pick single points of data that favor your opinion while activly ignoring any other data points that contradict your claims, you are good, right?

The question was, has McCain ever lead in Pennsylvania? Yes he has.

I don't see what's so difficult about understanding that. PA has been close all election, and that's not going to change in a week or two.

Oh, why don't you show the big view EPW?

[EPW]

God your an idiot.

Even the Conservative site RealClearPolitics shows Obama leading by 13 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

and here's electoral-vote's "big picture" which shows the same:



You are probably confused by the scale which goes to 65%.