The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[EPW]

BK, if you were just trolling I applaud you and take back everything I said


However, if you meant what you said, you should check yourself into the nearest mental institution for psychological evaluation.

[Dauphin]

My prediction:

Obama 293
McCain 241

Vote pie!

[EPW]

375-163 Obama

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Dauphin
My prediction:

Obama 293
McCain 241

Vote pie!

With New Hampshire abstaining?

[Boris Godunov]

Maybe he meant that Pie would get the remaining 4 votes.

[Guynemer]

Fix it, Dauphin!

[Victor Galis]

Crazy prediction, since I'm way late. Obama 401-137

Now McCain just has to continue his slide.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
Crazy prediction, since I'm way late. Obama 401-137

Now McCain just has to continue his slide.

He is, apparently. NYT/CBS poll today has it 53-39 Obama. I sincerely doubt that Obama is +14, and the poll seems to historically have had a Democratic tilt anyway. But Obama was only up by 4 or so in the same poll 2 weeks ago.

[-Jrabbit]

Don't worry; McCain has promised to whup Obama's butt in the last debate tomorrow.

[Boris Godunov]

Well he won't have the opportunity to wander around the stage like an Alzheimer's patient, so that's a start.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Don't worry; McCain has promised to whup Obama's butt in the last debate tomorrow.

No, he said "whip".

Bit of a difference.

[Guynemer]

Err... I really don't think it was a race thing, if that's what you're implying.

[Impaler[WrG]]

Victor's prediction supersedes my own for most favorable to Obama and would require a landslide to the point that Obama wins Georgia and Montana. I actually hope that doesn't happen as the most likely scenario that will bring it about is a total financial meltdown.

As for a 14 point Obama lead that is indeed very much an outliers but not by all that much. A few few of the more sophisticated tracking polls have Obama consistently at +10 or more. Most of the differences in polling is due to the demographic mix, aka the prediction of who will show up to vote. Their is broad agreement on how the individual demographics will vote for example various numbers I've seen have McCain is winning whites by 55/45% but Obama is wining blacks 95/5% and Hispanics 75/25%, Obama is doing better across the board but only the Hispanic figure is really significantly changed from 2004.

The real question is what quantities of each group who will vote and the biggest untapped potential is still the Hispanic vote which will likely grow both because of the real increase in it's population and greater percentage of turnout. Some pollsters just take the 2004 demographic and run the current numbers through a very poor prediction method, they see McCain only 5% behind. Others use new voter registration numbers and self reported 'enthusiasm' metrics to construct their own mix models and these show Obama ahead by at least 10%. I'm inclined to believe the newer models because the Obama campaign is focused so strongly on changing voter turnout demographics it's unlikely that won't at least match the optimistic predictions of pollsters who are by nature conservative in their estimates.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Err... I really don't think it was a race thing, if that's what you're implying.

-Jrabbit said he said "whup". He didn't. He said "whip". Just stating a fact.

[-Jrabbit]

I wasn't quoting.