The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Jon Miller]

I agree that if Obama takes Ohio, Virginia, or any other large state that is traditionally Republican, he takes it.

If he doesn't, than it will be very close.

JM

[Kontiki]

I'll go the Ben route say that McCain wins it with at least 300.

[Winston]

The final result will be McCain 346, Obama 192.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Guynemer
Oh, and here's a website where you can play with a map to explore different scenarios:

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

I give Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, Hawaii, Delaware and Maryland to Obama.

I give Idaho, Wyoming, S. Dakota, West Virginia and Vermont to McCain.

Obama 303 McCain 235.

[Ramo]

Obama = Kerry + IA + NM + CO + NV + OH = 298 ev's

Zkrib, absolutely no way does McCain win VT in an election that he loses.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
For all the noise the media the Washington Post has been making about it, I don't think Obama has a very good chance of converting Virginia.

Here's why you're wrong. McCain will take the traditionally Republican central and western portion of Virginia. The N.E. corner, which is essentially a suburb of Washington D.C. will go for Obama. The balance of power lies in the Norfolk area where the military is huge. Right now, active duty military people are donating much more to Obama than to McCain, by a ratio of 6:1.

Our troops will give Obama the Commonwealth of Virginia and the election.

[Guynemer]

Picks so far...

Guynemer: McCain 291-247
Rufus T. Firefly: Obama 289-249
snoopy369: McCain 283-255
Winston: McCain 346-192
Zkribbler: Obama 303-235
Ramo: Obama 298-240


Get off the fence and pick, Siddiqui & Miller. Be specific Kontiki.

[Kontiki]

Alright, actual figures:

McCain 303, Obama 235

[Imran Siddiqui]

Oh, its an actual competition?

Ok, then:

Obama 277-261

[Jon Miller]

I will go with an interesting pick and say 269-269.

JM

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
I will go with an interesting pick and say 269-269.

JM

Then it's into the House of Representatives, where each state gets 1 vote.

[Zkribbler]

CNN's website [Link] states that currently, out of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect, Obama has 243, McCain has 189, and 106 votes are a tossup.

[Monk]

I predict 286-252. I think McCain will win every state Bush did, nothing more and nothing less.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
CNN's website [Link] states that currently, out of the 270 electoral votes needed to elect, Obama has 243, McCain has 189, and 106 votes are a tossup.

And FWIW, Realclearpolitics.com has Obama at 238 and McCain at 185, while Pollster.com has Obama at 260 and McCain at 179, but both have Obama winning if the toss-up states go the way they're currently leaning.

[Guynemer]

Initial post updated with current predictions.


fivethirtyeight.com has it Obama 306-232 right now, but only 247-171 would be considered "safe." The other states are still in the <75% likelihood of either candidate carrying them range.