McCain is considered 100% disabled by the VA

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Ramo
That's an urban legend. Kerry was up only a small amount at this point, and Gore was way behind.

Really? I remember Gore being up big (ie high 50s - low 40s) at some point. Am I having a stroke or something?


Regardless, there's no realistic way Obama wins this thing, which is a shame. I'm having a hard time envisioning a likely scenario in which any red state goes blue, but I bet at least one blue state (Michigan) goes red.

[Ramo]

Was he really? I know Gore was hurt by Bill's blowjob but I always thought he started well ahead. I honestly didn't pay much attention to polls back in '99 though.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

He didn't pull ahead until the Convention.

[Dinner]

He is up by 7 points vs McCain as of last week though I haven't seen new polls showing the effect of Hillary dropping out. I also know Obama has way out fund raised McCain to date. Then you have to factor in that hard times and high inflation usually work against the party in power.

[SlowwHand]

I think it will be close in Texas. The VP choice is a major thing, especially for Obama, in my opinion.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by SpencerH



Strange I could've sworn that even your fellow liberals here seem to be agreeing with me. What thread are you reading?

I've got a bet in mind but we have to define a few things first.

Odds: I'm taking the bigger risk by predicting landslide (>35 states or >300 electoral votes) I want 12:1 odds.

Obama does have a good chance to win the presidential election - you're thinking way too negatively.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I'm not alone this time.

For McCain to win 35 states, all he needs is to win are Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and New Hampshire. None of which is more then a 3 percent swing. That also puts him at over 300 EC votes.

Winning any one of them isn't terribly unlikely. Neither is holding states like New Mexico and Colorado where Obama is polling well. Winning ALL of them is horrifically unlikely barring a MAJOR change in how the race seems to shaping up.

Methinks someone needs to study some elementary comdinatorics.

For my prediction I'm sticking to my prediction at the beginning of the year when people were still talking about Clinton vs. Guilliani: Obama beats McCain by 5%. As far as what states, I'm sure I'll get the specifics wrong but something like this:

Safe Obama: CA, OR, WA, HI, MN, WI, IL, MD, DC, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, VT, ME = 210. He's got those easily.

States that Kerry got not included in the above: MI, PA, NH = 42

States that Obama has a VERY good chance of flipping = CO, NM, IA. I think I'll be able to carry all three = 22

So basically if Obama gets all Kerry's states and flips CO, NM and IA he's got it.

Gravy: MO, IN, OH, VA. If Obama gets even one or these its curtains for McCain unless something very strange happens.

There's other places that are polling relatively closely and something wierd might happen in them, but probably not much of those will pan out except for mabye one or two votes from NE.

[Ramo]

Plus NV and, to a lesser extent, NC.

[Ben Kenobi]

Safe Obama: CA, OR, WA, HI, MN, WI, IL, MD, DC, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, VT, ME = 210. He's got those easily.

WI is not safe. That leaves Obama with a base of 200 votes.

McCain's base is Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona, Utah, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana.

247 EC votes.

That means that McCain only needs to dig up 23 EC votes to win. PA alone is 21. So if he gets PA and Nevada, McCain wins.

These are the battlegrounds in my estimation.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri.

Indiana is not a battleground. Neither is Florida or Virginia or North Carolina.

I would say based on that McCain's best choice is a VP from Pennysylvania. If McCain can flip PA, Obama is done.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
I think it will be close in Texas. The VP choice is a major thing, especially for Obama, in my opinion.

In my opinion McCain's biggest weaknesses have been his fund raising (traditional GOP special interests don't like him because of his previous position on campaign finance reform while the GOP rank and file evangelicals aren't very enthusiastic about him) and the fact that the evangelical base of the GOP still doesn't like him. In fact, looking at the right wing blogs, several are still actively campaigning for him to drop out and have Huckabee take his place. That last part won't happen but it does show the traditional GOP base isn't very happy with him.

[Dinner]

Obama may be able to make strong in roads among some southern states because Blacks really like him and are hoping for the first partially black president. If Obama can pick off enough open minded whites he will do well in places like Virginia while majority black states like South Carolina might flip.

[Dinner]

Real Clear Politics has the electoral map as thus:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

There are 228 safe Obama votes with 190 safe McCain votes with 120 contested. It seems that Obama has the advantage especially since he only needs 48 of those 120 to win the contest.

Interesting realclearpolitics.com says South Carolina is a lock but North Carolina & Virgina are not.

[Dinner]

I would like to note that when unexpectedly high turn out happens, like in 1992, then the models all go out the door.

[Dinner]

It seems that almost 150 years later we are still fighting the civil war. With the north vs the south with border regions in play.

[Dinner]

Survey USA has 280 for Obama with 258 for McCain so Obama wins. Even though Nebraska is still in play.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

No landslides to be had here.

[Bosh]

BK: I'm not saying that McCain can't win, its just that you're projections are absurd since you give EVERY close state to McCain, just as you did with every other elections all of which you have gotten the specifics of horrifically wrong.

I'm sure that McCain will win virtually all of the states you mention as "safe" for him but states like Virginia and Indiana are not safe for McCain (although they will probably go for him). You can't just make a list of every state that McCain has an advantage in and then say that he's get the whole number.

It's simple statistics. If there's 10 states that McCain has a 90% chance of winning in each one then by simple statistics he has a 35% chance of winning in all ten.