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McCain is considered 100% disabled by the VA

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  • #136
    BK: I'm not saying that McCain can't win, its just that you're projections are absurd since you give EVERY close state to McCain, just as you did with every other elections all of which you have gotten the specifics of horrifically wrong.

    I'm sure that McCain will win virtually all of the states you mention as "safe" for him but states like Virginia and Indiana are not safe for McCain (although they will probably go for him). You can't just make a list of every state that McCain has an advantage in and then say that he's get the whole number.

    It's simple statistics. If there's 10 states that McCain has a 90% chance of winning in each one then by simple statistics he has a 35% chance of winning in all ten.
    Which is the answer to Spencers' question, that it should be 2-1 odds.

    I'll take the bet from Imran, if he's willing to go twice as long with an avatar.
    Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
    "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
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    • #137
      RCP is flawed.

      Iowa is not a SAFE democrat pick up, considering that they voted Republican last time.

      Neither is Pennsylvania.

      North Carolina and Virginia are leaning McCain, as is Indiana.

      Those 5 changes, and you have Obama having an uphill climb to become president.

      I'm not shocked by the bias in the RCP. Indiana is not a tossup as are any of the other southern states. All three are safe McCain.

      Wow, it looks like New Jersey isn't safe either. This is gonna be a crazy election.
      Last edited by Ben Kenobi; June 10, 2008, 12:04.
      Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
      "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
      2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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      • #138
        Survey USA is a hoot.

        They have Obama losing PA, AND New Jersey but winning North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

        I'm sorry, if McCain wins PA, Obama is not going to win North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia and Ohio.

        If you overlap these two polls, you get:

        Obama winning Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey

        McCain wins PA, North Dakota, Missouri, Nebraska,
        Last edited by Ben Kenobi; June 10, 2008, 12:00.
        Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
        "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
        2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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        • #139
          Originally posted by Kuciwalker
          You're interpreting that incorrectly.
          I probably am. Couldn't resist .
          "post reported"Winston, on the barricades for freedom of speech
          "I don't like laws all over the world. Doesn't mean I am going to do anything but post about it."Jon Miller

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          • #140
            Indiana may vote for Obama if Bayh is on the ticket. If Bayh isn't on the ticket, Indiana will vote for McCain.
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            • #141
              Honestly, the VP candidate has never swayed my vote one way or the other.
              "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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              • #142
                Popular local characters often delivel their states, unless it's an entirely impossible state (ie, Gore and TN). You may not be swayed, but lots of people are...
                <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
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                • #143

                  They have Obama losing PA, AND New Jersey but winning North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
                  You must be looking at old polls. The most recent SUSA poll has Obama up by 6 in PA. They haven't polled NJ since February, but they have it as a tie. And NE is a loss (though 1-2 electoral votes are in contention).
                  "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
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                  • #144
                    You must be looking at old polls. The most recent SUSA poll has Obama up by 6 in PA. They haven't polled NJ since February, but they have it as a tie. And NE is a loss (though 1-2 electoral votes are in contention).
                    I just clicked on Survey USA's link that was up earlier in the thread. Not my fault if the polls are old.
                    Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                    "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
                    2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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                    • #145
                      Popular local characters often delivel their states, unless it's an entirely impossible state (ie, Gore and TN). You may not be swayed, but lots of people are...
                      Oh I know, I am just talking about me personally. Then again, a VP candidate has never been from my area (VA, SC)
                      "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                      • #146
                        Originally posted by Patroklos
                        Honestly, the VP candidate has never swayed my vote one way or the other.
                        Conversely no candidate has ever given a **** what you think of their VP choice.
                        Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                        • #147
                          Popular local characters often delivel their states
                          Popular local characters with political machines, i.e. Governors, sometimes deliver states. Which is why i.e. Rendell and Nutter were more important for Clinton in PA than Casey was for Obama. Senators like Bayh have a more limited effect.
                          "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                          -Bokonon

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                          • #148
                            Originally posted by snoopy369
                            Popular local characters often delivel their states, unless it's an entirely impossible state (ie, Gore and TN). You may not be swayed, but lots of people are...
                            I don't think Gore was a popular local character though.
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                            • #149
                              Conversely no candidate has ever given a **** what you think of their VP choice.
                              Really, presidential candidates don't care what effect their VP choice will have on the voters in a swing state

                              Oerdin
                              "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

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                              • #150
                                Way to mischaracterize a statement. Dim witted as always patty.
                                Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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