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Peter Robinson: Okay. So fellas, how do you tell North Korea "no"?
Graham Allison: I would say first we try to determine how bad would it be if North Korea actually has a nuclear test, declares itself a nuclear weapon state--completes this production line that'll allow it to produce another dozen weapons a year. And I think there's every reason to believe that this North Korea will sell nuclear weapons to Al Qaeda and everybody else because they've shown themselves willing to sell whatever they make and they have only three cash crops: missiles, illegal drugs and counterfeit hundred dollar bills.
Peter Robinson: The development of nuclear weapons by North Korea becomes a casus belli. It is a cause for war.
Scott Sagan: Unfortunately they've already crossed that line. That was actually the right strategy of having carrots and sticks in the Clinton Administration. They said if you take the materials out of the reactor, that will not be acceptable and that is a red line.
Peter Robinson: The Clinton Administration said to the North Koreans?
Scott Sagan: Correct.
Peter Robinson: Right.
Scott Sagan: In '95.
Peter Robinson: And they crossed the red line?
Scott Sagan: No, they didn't.
Peter Robinson: Oh they didn't?
Scott Sagan: They froze. That was the part of the agreed framework. I have students…
Peter Robinson: We believe they actually did live up to it?
Scott Sagan: Yes.
Peter Robinson: All right.
Scott Sagan: Now what they did was cheat--they had a separated program and we caught them because they got aid from Pakistan, having a separate program that was going to take years, unfortunately, during the Bush Administration. Was very aggressive verbally and then when the North Koreans began to start crossing the line, the
Bush Administration was so concerned about Iraq
and was so focused on what was going on in Iraq that they let the North Koreans cross the line. Unfortunately, it's too late for us to say your development of nuclear weapons is going to be a cause of war because they…
Peter Robinson: They have them.
Graham Allison: I would say first we try to determine how bad would it be if North Korea actually has a nuclear test, declares itself a nuclear weapon state--completes this production line that'll allow it to produce another dozen weapons a year. And I think there's every reason to believe that this North Korea will sell nuclear weapons to Al Qaeda and everybody else because they've shown themselves willing to sell whatever they make and they have only three cash crops: missiles, illegal drugs and counterfeit hundred dollar bills.
Peter Robinson: The development of nuclear weapons by North Korea becomes a casus belli. It is a cause for war.
Scott Sagan: Unfortunately they've already crossed that line. That was actually the right strategy of having carrots and sticks in the Clinton Administration. They said if you take the materials out of the reactor, that will not be acceptable and that is a red line.
Peter Robinson: The Clinton Administration said to the North Koreans?
Scott Sagan: Correct.
Peter Robinson: Right.
Scott Sagan: In '95.
Peter Robinson: And they crossed the red line?
Scott Sagan: No, they didn't.
Peter Robinson: Oh they didn't?
Scott Sagan: They froze. That was the part of the agreed framework. I have students…
Peter Robinson: We believe they actually did live up to it?
Scott Sagan: Yes.
Peter Robinson: All right.
Scott Sagan: Now what they did was cheat--they had a separated program and we caught them because they got aid from Pakistan, having a separate program that was going to take years, unfortunately, during the Bush Administration. Was very aggressive verbally and then when the North Koreans began to start crossing the line, the
Bush Administration was so concerned about Iraq
and was so focused on what was going on in Iraq that they let the North Koreans cross the line. Unfortunately, it's too late for us to say your development of nuclear weapons is going to be a cause of war because they…
Peter Robinson: They have them.
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