Primary Thread 3: Race to Denver

[Alexander I]

Do you think that the ultra-conservatives will follow through with their threat to vote for the Democratic nominee if McCain wins the GOP?

How many vitriolic McCain haters will really "bite their tongues" for him?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Hillary Clinton; Pledged: 632; Superdelegates: 193; Total: 825
Barack Obama; Pledged: 626; Superdelegates: 106; Total: 732
John Edwards; Pledged: 26; Superdelegates: 0; Total: 26

The count seems to vary a lot depending on which site you visit.

That can't be right. 2025 delegates are needed to be nominated. These numbers indicate that no one is even halfway there yet.

[Arrian]

I think that's an empty threat. They will either vote for McCain or simply sit out the election.

-Arrian

[Alexander I]

Originally posted by Arrian
I think that's an empty threat. They will either vote for McCain or simply sit out the election.

-Arrian

Despite the McCain hype, I think this election may be in the bag for the Dems...

[Dinner]

The only real hope for change is that not only does the right Democrat win the White House but also that they pick up a filibuster proof majority in Congress. Obama has said he wants to repeal the give away to credit card companies which virtually outlawed bankruptcy in America, create universal health care, replace Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy with targeted tax cuts for the middle class, massively cut back on farm subsidies & corporate welfare (basically making farm subsidies mostly go to family farms instead of corporate farms), push for a stronger McCain-Feingold law to eliminate money in politics and move towards public funding, and actually eliminate the wasteful and corrupt no bid contracts.

With a $3.1 trillion budget (remember Clinton's last budget was just $1.9 trillion) there is a HUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEE amount of fat and corporate give aways which can be trimmed from the Federal budget in order to pay for things like universal health care. It's just a matter of using it to help people instead of Haliburton.

[Dinner]

Dealing with the issue of who is most likely to win a contest in Nov...

Both candidates have shown they can win contests that will never matter, either because they will be solid Dem no matter who runs (Illinois/New York) or because they will be solid GOP (Utah, Oklahoma). What about the CLOSE states?

Top 11 swing states from 2004:

1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67% Obama
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% Obama
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% Clinton
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59% Obama & Clinton
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% Clinton (uncontested)
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% Obama
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67% Obama

Could Obama flip Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado? Maybe. Conversely, his poor showing in New Hampshire is cause for the Clintonites to celebrate.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Alexander I


Despite the McCain hype, I think this election may be in the bag for the Dems...

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ramo
The supers will coronate whomever's ahead; otherwise there's total pandemonium and the grassroots would be pissed.

Yeah, because the party bosses have been so careful lately not to piss off the grassroots...

[Ramo]

They may be dumb, but they're not quite that bad. Going against the pledged delegate count (if there's a clear distinction) would mean electoral suicide at the top of the ticket in the Fall, and every single one of them would be out of office next election.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Dealing with the issue of who is most likely to win a contest in Nov...

Both candidates have shown they can win contests that will never matter, either because they will be solid Dem no matter who runs (Illinois/New York) or because they will be solid GOP (Utah, Oklahoma). What about the CLOSE states?

Top 11 swing states from 2004:

1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67% Obama
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% Obama
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% Clinton
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59% Obama & Clinton
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% Clinton (uncontested)
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% Obama
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67% Obama

Could Obama flip Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado? Maybe. Conversely, his poor showing in New Hampshire is cause for the Clintonites to celebrate.

I said this already in another thread, so briefly: Iowa and NM are trending Dem, and NH loves McCain, so you're better off looking at the 2000 map for a sense of what the Dems have to do in 2008. Basically, they have to take what gore took plus either Florida, or Ohio, or some battleground western states (CO, KS, and MT wold do it). Of those scenarios, the likliest is taking Ohio, where the GOP party apparatus has imploded -- so it will be very important to see which candidatet performs better there.

[Dinner]

NPR has a very interesting piece running right now. Apparently Obama has out fund raised Hillary nearly 2:1 since the first of the year. Hillary has been so hard up for cash that she's had to loan herself $5 million just to make it through super tuesday.

Hillary's campaign is coming off of its tracks.

[Ramo]

And Obama raised $5.5 million (and growing) since the polls closed yesterday to even out that loan. Some of Clinton's senior staff are even going unpaid (shade of Rudy) due to the drastic fundraising gap.

[snoopy369]

McCain also apparently had trouble at one point with fundraising and had to take out a loan that was backed with... a $3m life insurance policy

[Alexander I]

McCain could have a hard time in Utah; Republicans here don't just hate him, they loathe him. I briefly mentioned his name at the Primary the other day, and one of the old men running the thing began growling "McCain is a traitor!!!!"

Glenn Beck summarizes it pretty well for us when he says that John McCain makes "blood shoot out of our eyes" and "many of us would just rather have Hillary."

Now I know there are always those for whom party loyalties come first, but for many Mormons, it's gotten personal.

[Dinner]

All because McCain dared to try to get bribe money out of politics.