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  • #31
    Hillary Clinton; Pledged: 632; Superdelegates: 193; Total: 825
    Barack Obama; Pledged: 626; Superdelegates: 106; Total: 732
    John Edwards; Pledged: 26; Superdelegates: 0; Total: 26

    The count seems to vary a lot depending on which site you visit.
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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    • #32
      That count is CNN's count as of an hour ago (whether you got it from there or not, it's the same). I know they didn't allocate most of California's delegates yet (like 100 of the what, 700?)
      <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
      I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Oerdin
        Probably true. Unless Obama makes some big moves over the next month then Texas will side with Billary and the race will be over.
        I wouldn't be so sure. Obama has the chance to win some if not all of the remaining February states. And of the March 4th states, TX, OH, RI, and VT, they'll probably split RI and VT, and Obama could use his field and money advantage to good effect in Ohio. Its possible that TX will be Clinton's only win in the next month, and that is not nearly enough for Clinton to stay strong.
        "Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - Elok

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Admiral


          I wouldn't be so sure. Obama has the chance to win some if not all of the remaining February states. And of the March 4th states, TX, OH, RI, and VT, they'll probably split RI and VT, and Obama could use his field and money advantage to good effect in Ohio. Its possible that TX will be Clinton's only win in the next month, and that is not nearly enough for Clinton to stay strong.
          Exactly. If anything, Obama will spend the next month slowly pulling ahead, and then Texas will reset the race to a tie. April's race in Pennsylvania (in which I vote) could actually be the deciding one, and PA demographics plus the Clintons' close relationship with Gov. Rendell are likely to swing that into Hillary's camp.

          BTW, for what it's worth: Real Clear Politics is showing Clinton with 900 total delegates, 211 of which are superdelegates; Obama with 824 delegates, 128 of which are superdelegates. That puts Obama ahead in committed delegates, 696-689. As of 16:00 GMT, anyway.
          "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

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          • #35
            Clinton has the Giuliani problem, though. Losing race after race for an entire month, and the associated bad press. If Obama wins both TX and OH, I suspect that the race is over. And that might be doable (OH probably being the more difficult state for him).

            The latest poll (~a week old) showed Clinton up by only 10% in TX. It looks like Latino outreach is what ****ed him in the end in CA (since Obama won whites); he needs to work hard on courting them in TX (which, in principle, shouldn't be difficult since he's closer to them on policy). FWIW, the Dallas Morning News and the Austin American Stateman have both endorsed Obama (no major paper endorsements from Clinton), and Clinton has a serious edge in Congressional endorsements.

            I have no idea what his game plan is in OH, but if he can win IA and MO and MN, he probably has a decent shot in the state. A big problem for him is that Strickland endorsed Clinton; Sherrod Brown could be a big boost.
            "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
            -Bokonon

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            • #36
              Doesn't it, ultimately, fall to the convention floor regardless? If Clinton (or Obama) comes in with a few hundred delegate lead, that won't be enough to win by him/herself anyway... and all the superdelegates mean someone up top has to decide who will more likely win the general, and more likely help the democrat cause if they do win (if they think both are equally likely to win).
              <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
              I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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              • #37
                The supers will coronate whomever's ahead; otherwise there's total pandemonium and the grassroots would be pissed.
                "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                -Bokonon

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                • #38
                  Its a forgone conclusion that Super delegates will decide this nomination, either they will line up behind the candidate who has a pledged delegate lead or they will go for the other one and be said to be "over-ruling" the people.

                  Their are two kinds of super delegates, elected Dems in Congress + Dem Governors and DNC members.

                  A number of the elected Dems came out for Hillary at first but the momentum of endorsements is now with Obama. Many of these officials are publicly stating that they will vote as their districts vote so as not to piss off their constituencies. Overall I think their will be a close split in this group.

                  The DNC members are the larger of the two groups and as of yet I haven't heard a peep from them as too who will be endorsing. I don't know how the power structures inside the DNC work, its rumored that Dean is anti-Hillary (Obama has attracted his followers and perfected his online fund raising techniques) but the DNC could easily be saturated with Clinton loyalists who carry the day.

                  So in conclusion it is the DNC members who will REALLY decide this and we have no idea how this group will decide.
                  Companions the creator seeks, not corpses, not herds and believers. Fellow creators, the creator seeks - those who write new values on new tablets. Companions the creator seeks, and fellow harvesters; for everything about him is ripe for the harvest. - Thus spoke Zarathustra, Fredrick Nietzsche

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                  • #39
                    Or there may have to be a brokered convention, with the DNC members doing the brokering. It may be the only way in Hell a Clinton/Obama ticket actually happens (no, I don't think it will, just joking) .

                    There is, of course, a possibility that the candidate with the most delegates may not be the one with the most popular votes. Which makes things very interesting.
                    “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                    - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by MarkG
                      hmmmm so Obama is hoping for Ohio and Texas to vote for a black guy.....

                      ...like Alabama and Georgia

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                      • #41
                        Alabama and Georgia have substantial black populations. They make up a great part of the Democratic electorate in those states.
                        “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                        - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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                        • #42
                          The overall popular vote argument won't be particularly compelling, because of the differences between primaries and caucuses. Obama won big in caucus states, where turnout will always be much lower than in primary states. Compare Missouri to Minnesota. They have basically the same population, but in Missouri 800k people voted, compared to 200k in Minnesota.
                          "Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - Elok

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                          • #43
                            So who's thinking this will be a Clinton presidency with Obama as vice-president? The media over here seem to have decided that's going to be the end result.
                            Do not fear, for I am with you; Do not anxiously look about you, for I am your God.-Isaiah 41:10
                            I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made - Psalms 139.14a
                            Also active on WePlayCiv.

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                            • #44
                              The only chance of that is if the race isn't decided until the convention, with a clear impasse over Michigan/Florida, and with a narrow Clinton lead in superdelegates. Then, the DNC basically steps in and forces Obama to run as VP. But even under those circumstances, I think that Obama would rather concede the race than run as VP to Clinton. The same, obviously, applies to a Obama - Clinton ticket.
                              "Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - Elok

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Nikolai
                                So who's thinking this will be a Clinton presidency with Obama as vice-president? The media over here seem to have decided that's going to be the end result.
                                I'd much more prefer an Obama-Clinton ticket, only without the Clinton part.

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