Primary Thread 3: Race to Denver

[germanos]

I noticed there are big differences between the two parties delegates for each state. And its not the actual number, but their relative weight. For example: California will bring 10% of the delagates to the Dem convention, while it will only bring 7% to the Republican one.

Is this some nasty scheme to prevent factions in each party to get actual influence on nominating the presidential candidate?

Most noticable differences:
Michigan, California, Illinois, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico all have 150 % more say at the Dems.

Nevada, Samoa, Idaho, north Dakota, south Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Wyoming, Guam and Montana all have twice as much say at the Reps.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Agreed. The party elites wanted to pretend the system was democratic while actually maintaining all power for themselves. **** that.

If the superdelegates ignore the wishes of america and support a candidate that people don't want to vote for, they won't get voted for and will lose the general election.

Basically, the party elite gets more power the more on top the party gets, like in every party system.

JM

[MarkG]

obama catching up
cbs : Clinton 835, Obama 748 (diff: 87)

[Cyclotron]

What a crazy race for both parties.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Right now, minus the superdelegates, CNN is showing Clinton with only a 6-delegate lead over Obama. I can't believe my April vote may still matter...

[Dinner]

Originally posted by germanos
I noticed there are big differences between the two parties delegates for each state. And its not the actual number, but their relative weight. For example: California will bring 10% of the delagates to the Dem convention, while it will only bring 7% to the Republican one.

Is this some nasty scheme to prevent factions in each party to get actual influence on nominating the presidential candidate?

Most noticable differences:
Michigan, California, Illinois, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico all have 150 % more say at the Dems.

Nevada, Samoa, Idaho, north Dakota, south Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Wyoming, Guam and Montana all have twice as much say at the Reps.

Each party gives states party delegates based upon the number of registered party members in the state. This is entirely different from the number of electoral votes the state will get in the actual Presidential election.

[Dinner]

Romney is a dead duck. He stands zero chance of winning and isn't even raising much in the way of funds so he's basically just spending his own money. CNN is saying he's spent at least 50 million of his own money so far. The only reason I can think of why he hasn't thrown in the towel is because he's trying to build a name for himself for some future election.

[Bosh]

I think Obama is projected to have a miniscule lead in Super Tuesday delegates since his margins of victory tended to be bigger than Clinton's. The exact number doesn't matter, but right now it looks like the nomination is Obama's to lose since he's got a real edge in pretty much every caucus/primary from now until Ohio a month from now. A long drumbeat of Obama wins in places like Wisconsin, Hawaii, Maine, etc. will really chip away at Clinton.

Surprised how horrifically Hillary got stomped on some of the midwestern states and some of the spin coming out of her camp is just transparently silly (saying that her win in Mass was a surprise is absolutely ridiculous).

Of course I'm heavily biased against Clinton, but I don't see how today didn't help Obama a good bit. Definately a lot better than I expected, I would've guessed Clinton getting 50 or so more delegates than Obama tonight.

[Dinner]

Look to see Hillary trying to expost facto change the rules so she can get delegates from Florida and Michigan. Also watch her try to claim she won the big states there for the super delegates should switch sides and support her.

I had the utmost respect for Bill Clinton but seeing him stoop to making racial comments while both he and Hillary make blatantly false attempts to swiftboat Obama has pissed me off. I really hope she loses.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Now things get a bit interesting. Obama has the edge in the upcoming Feb 12 primaries, but I don't think there is any way that Clinton loses Texas in early March (the sizable Latino population).

[Dinner]

Probably true. Unless Obama makes some big moves over the next month then Texas will side with Billary and the race will be over.

[Guynemer]

What will Dean and the DNC ultimately do about Michigan and Florida? If delegates are reinstated, they can't just award them all to Clinton, can they? At least not in Michigan, where no one else was even on the ballot?

What should they do? Hold another primary? Send random delegates by lottery?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Guynemer
What will Dean and the DNC ultimately do about Michigan and Florida? If delegates are reinstated, they can't just award them all to Clinton, can they? At least not in Michigan, where no one else was even on the ballot?

What should they do? Hold another primary? Send random delegates by lottery?

For Michigan, I assume they'll just let a group of Dem party leaders (perhaps state senators and whatnot) vote the delegates. Kind of like a superdelegate/state delegate mix.

Florida is easier since everyone was on the ballot.

[Dinner]

900 to 824 right now. Obama back by 76 delegates. Hillary didn't even get close to cinching the nomination on Super Tuesday like she said a month ago.

[Arrian]

Obama won a close one here in CT, for what that's worth (little).

-Arrian