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Kid, don't pay attention to Wiggy...
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You just wasted six ... no, seven ... seconds of your life reading this sentence. -
Clinton seems to be really screwed now from an non-USians PoV. She really needs to win a atleast 2 states to look like she is in control.You just wasted six ... no, seven ... seconds of your life reading this sentence.Comment
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I'd say that Obama has a decent shot in TX.
-The last poll (around the FL primary) showed Clinton up by only 10%.
-There's a month worth of victories (Clinton might take ME and has an outside chance at taking WI) which should make him the frontrunner a get him at least a few percent nationally.
-This is outside Clinton's geographic base, so we're down to demographics. The black population is a larger percentage (by a factor of two), and the hispanic population smaller, than in CA. Plus, no Asians.
-TX elects 25% of its delegates through a primary and 75% through a caucus. Obama has shown a remarkable ability to win caucuses due to superior organization and more enthusiastic supporters (winning 68% in NE and 69% in WA tonight). He's gone 8 for 9 in caucuses, the exception being NV which he only lost by 6%.
-The delegates are organized by state senate districts. The number of delegates in black districts are, for reasons I don't remember, more numerous than in other districts.
-He has a large "creative class" base in Austin.
-He has more money (in January, Obama outraised Clinton by over two to one).
OH might actually be less friendly territory than TX."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Did I say Clinton seems really screwed? I meant she was screwed.
Obama
You just wasted six ... no, seven ... seconds of your life reading this sentence.Comment
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The Austin American Statesmen and the Dallas Morning News have endorsed Obama (none of the majors, as yet, for Clinton). All of the papers in TX are Republican, so I don't know how important these endorsements are. And Obama sweeped the CA papers, but lost by 10%...Put an end to popups!
Here's the problem for Clinton. She has nothing until TX and Ohio, and Obama will continue to talk about him versus McCain. He will sound more presidential than her, and if he can win in Ohio (and he can - the Cleveland Plain Dealer just endorsed him), then she will be in a very bad place"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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And it looks like Obama will win LA by 20%.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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How ridiculous. She is still winning on delegates, and is polling way ahead in Pennsylvania, which is 10x more important than tonight's contests combined.Originally posted by Krill
Did I say Clinton seems really screwed? I meant she was screwed.
Obama
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One of the advantages Obama has had in a lot of the caucuses he has won is endorsement and support from important Democrats. Now, this being TX, there aren't a lot of Democrats out there, but where have those that exist fallen (I imagine there are some mayors out there.)Originally posted by Ramo
The Austin American Statesmen and the Dallas Morning News have endorsed Obama (none of the majors, as yet, for Clinton). All of the papers in TX are Republican, so I don't know how important these endorsements are. And Obama sweeped the CA papers, but lost by 10%..."Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - ElokComment
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She is only winning if you include Superdelegates, many of which endorsed her early, and may swing to Obama. But here's the thing about PA. Its more than 2 months away from now. Everything can change. Two months before super Tuesday, Obama may not have been leading in a single state poll (well, Illinois, but still). Between now and PA, Obama will win some if not all of the February states. Obama will win VT, lose RI, and has a decent chance at OH and if Ramo is right, TX. Factor in Obama's edge in fundraising, Obama's superior field organization, and the fact that the more voters are exposed to Obama, the more they seem to like him, the current PA polls are essentially meaningless.Originally posted by Wiglaf
How ridiculous. She is still winning on delegates, and is polling way ahead in Pennsylvania, which is 10x more important than tonight's contests combined."Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - ElokComment
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Clinton has a large edge in members of Congress (who generally have questionable vote-getting value). The key are the big city Dem mayors (Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso), and I don't think any have endorsed. Of the mayors, the most important endorsement would be Bill White of Houston (who, I'd assume, leans Clinton)"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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So Obama won ~46 delegates tonight, and his lead is 72 (super delegates are a pointless measure right now).
I'd say that the nomination is over if Obama has a pledged delegate lead of 100 on 3/5 (i.e. more or less splits 3/4 with Clinton)."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Exactly. Two months ago, Rudy Giulini was clearly going to win the GOP nomination. Two months is a lifetime in electoral politics.Originally posted by Admiral
She is only winning if you include Superdelegates, many of which endorsed her early, and may swing to Obama. But here's the thing about PA. Its more than 2 months away from now. Everything can change. Two months before super Tuesday, Obama may not have been leading in a single state poll (well, Illinois, but still). Between now and PA, Obama will win some if not all of the February states. Obama will win VT, lose RI, and has a decent chance at OH and if Ramo is right, TX. Factor in Obama's edge in fundraising, Obama's superior field organization, and the fact that the more voters are exposed to Obama, the more they seem to like him, the current PA polls are essentially meaningless.
But beyond that, even if Hillary wins PA, she's noot going to get all of its delegates; probably the best she can hope for is a 2/3-1/3 split, which would give her about 60 more delegates than Obama. Considering that she's already between 30 and 60 committed delegates behind Obama (depending on who's counting; CNN says ~30, RCP says ~60; edit - Ramo, who's saying 72? Just curious), and considering Obama's got momentum, PA may just be a matter of allowing Clinton to catch up again."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George CarlinComment
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Chuck Todd IIRC. CNN is painfully slow (they still haven't allocated some Super Tuesday delegates from what I can tell)."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I'm not entirely clear on what happens after PA, but if Clinton wins big there after winning TX and OH, she'll win big in Puerto Rico, and she'll be the nominee."Remember, there's good stuff in American culture, too. It's just that by "good stuff" we mean "attacking the French," and Germany's been doing that for ages now, so, well, where does that leave us?" - ElokComment
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