Primary Thread 3: Race to Denver

[Ramo]

One thing to keep in mind is that WY and MS, which should both be strong Obama states (and should pad his margin by 20 delegates), come almost immediately after 3/4. Then there's 40 days till PA.

If Obama's significantly ahead on 3/4 (again, by about 100 to cancel out giving MI and FL their delegates), there's going to be immense pressure by the Dem establishment to get Clinton out of the race (maybe Reid offers her Majority Leader). And that's when she loses all of her superdelegates.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Admiral
I'm not entirely clear on what happens after PA, but if Clinton wins big there after winning TX and OH, she'll win big in Puerto Rico, and she'll be the nominee.

So far, it looks like big states have ended up splitting their commited delegates 2/3-1/3 in the Democratic primaries. If that holds, and Clinton wins OH, TX, and PA, that'll be approximately 320 delegates for Clinton, 160 for Obama. Given that Clinton's currently down and likely to be further down next week, a 160-delegate margin certainly helps, but by no means guarantees the nomination.

[Apocalypse]

Originally posted by Ramo


The Austin American Statesmen and the Dallas Morning News have endorsed Obama (none of the majors, as yet, for Clinton). All of the papers in TX are Republican, so I don't know how important these endorsements are. And Obama sweeped the CA papers, but lost by 10%...

The Chronicle is Republican?

[DinoDoc]

What happens to the delegates from MI and FL if neither candidate can over come the effect of letting them in? Which as this looks like it might go to the convention is possible. Would the party be willing to throw the votes of those citizens into the trash?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
What happens to the delegates from MI and FL if neither candidate can over come the effect of letting them in? Which as this looks like it might go to the convention is possible. Would the party be willing to throw the votes of those citizens into the trash?

I certainly hope so -- and I'm leaning toward Clinton. Michigan and Florida disenfranchised themselves; seating their delegates would be a travesty -- and would make sure plenty of Obama supporters stay home in November. If the Dems want to hand teh election to McCain on a platter, seating Michigan and Florida would be the way to do it.

[Ramo]

Ah, the Chron is Dem. Forgot about that.

Regarding MI and FL, this is what I bet happens. MI gets a caucus and those delegates are seated (note that in LA, Huck won the primary but lost the caucus, so won't get any delegates from that state) and FL's primary delegation is seated with some kind of severe penalty (maybe 50% as the GOP did). And none of that matters because the nomination is sewn up by mid-March.

[Ramo]

So far, it looks like big states have ended up splitting their commited delegates 2/3-1/3 in the Democratic primaries.

The only big states that were won 2-1 were won by Obama (IL and GA). CA and NJ were a 10% margin, NY and MA were 17% IIRC. I should point out that Clinton's lead was largely based on her huge early voting margin which Obama closed as he campaigned in these and other states (which he only had a week to do). That's going to be far less of an issue in TX, OH, and PA (athough I can't see him winning PA).

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ramo


The only big states that were won 2-1 were won by Obama (IL and GA). CA and NJ were a 10% margin, NY and MA were 17% IIRC. I should point out that Clinton's lead was largely based on her huge early voting margin which Obama closed as he campaigned in these and other states (which he only had a week to do). That's going to be far less of an issue in TX, OH, and PA (athough I can't see him winning PA).

You're right; I wass looking at numbers that included state-based superdelegates. Looks like the 480 votes in the 3 big states would more likely split 280-200, which doesn't actually help her all that much.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Krill
Kid, don't pay attention to Wiggy...

Why not? He's a kick.

[Dinner]

I was watching Obama's speech in Virgina earlier and I really like his plan for a $4000 credit each year to every college student in exchange for national service. Working in retirement homes, working in Veteran's homes, teaching English to young people and immigrants.

It help young people pay for college and it helps get young people working to improve America. An extra 40-50 million pairs of hands can really help America where it needs it most.

[MarkG]

a $4000 credit each year to every college student in exchange for national service. Working in retirement homes, working in Veteran's homes, teaching English to young people and immigrants.

i think there was a West Wing episode with a similar idea. it never happened

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I was watching Obama's speech in Virgina earlier and I really like his plan for a $4000 credit each year to every college student in exchange for national service. Working in retirement homes, working in Veteran's homes, teaching English to young people and immigrants.

It help young people pay for college and it helps get young people working to improve America. An extra 40-50 million pairs of hands can really help America where it needs it most.

Hate to knock it, because it sounds great, but what's so special about college kids?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ramo
One thing to keep in mind is that WY and MS, which should both be strong Obama states (and should pad his margin by 20 delegates), come almost immediately after 3/4. Then there's 40 days till PA.

If Obama's significantly ahead on 3/4 (again, by about 100 to cancel out giving MI and FL their delegates), there's going to be immense pressure by the Dem establishment to get Clinton out of the race (maybe Reid offers her Majority Leader). And that's when she loses all of her superdelegates.

What would count as significant? And why should the delegate count, which is skeewed because of the Florida and Michingan penalties, count more than say the overall popular vote count, which Clinton might lead given that many of Obama's victories come from caucauses were less than 50,000 people voted?

Obama has won races in a lot of states that won't go democrat in November no matter what (Wyoming, Alaska, Utah). I think it a bit hypocritical of any candidate to tell superdelegates that they should vote the intent of the voters, but do so while demanding that primary voters in two states critical to any democratic victory in November (Michigan and Florida) be excluded.

As for the races ahead, I think Obama's growing fundraising power will allow him to spend huge in Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I would still think that if demographic trends continue to hold Clinton will all three, but by smaller margins than previously.

[MarkG]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Hate to knock it, because it sounds great, but what's so special about college kids?

they can vote

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by MarkG
they can vote

Yep. There goes my vote.