Primary Thread 3: Race to Denver

[snoopy369]

Continued from here ...

Anyone ready to call the Republican race for McCain? I am...

[Imran Siddiqui]

California called for Clinton and McCain.

[snoopy369]

The big question is, how much for each...

I think if Clinton gets 60%+ she'll be looking pretty good, but if it fades to the mid 50s then Obama will have earned enough to stay very competitive.

I also think that one of the big things from today is that Clinton won the 'safe' Democratic states (NY, CA, NJ, MA) while Obama won quite a few states that are not democrat strongholds. Whether that translates into success in the undeclared superdelegates who presumably tend towards Clinton ... who knows.

Also - what effect will John Edwards and Al Gore have on this primary race. Edwards presumably will support Obama if Obama makes any effort to gather his support; but Gore... who knows. I'd think he'd support Hillary due to the 1990s, but ... wasn't there some friction between him and the Clintons? Also, how much will it matter if he does, and why hasn't he declared his preference as of yet?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Edwards presumably will support Obama if Obama makes any effort to gather his support

Actually I think Edwards holds his support for now. He can dangle those delegates he has if things get reaaaaaly close as the convention comes near.

[snoopy369]

Well, he holds out for promises of a position he desires, yes? If Obama makes the effort to offer that position, I think Edwards goes to him. Most of the (know-nothing) politicos consider him closer to Obama than Clinton, for whatever reason...

[MarkG]

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D

cnn says Clinton 591, Obama 476

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by MarkG

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D

cnn says Clinton 591, Obama 476

Strange. Clinton is declared winner of CA but CNN reports that only 34 delegates have been counted.

Also, Obama has caught up some.

Clinton 631
Obama 525

[Alexander I]

Here's CNN's current GOP delegate numbers.

McCain - 514
Romney - 177
Huckabee - 122
Paul - 11

RCP's numbers have been projected a little farther.

McCain - 530
Romney - 219
Huckabee - 151
Paul - 9

Here's the "Gold" Count, out of a total of 29 states so far (a whopping 21 from Super Tuesday).
McCain - 12 States (NH, SC, FL, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK)
Romney - 11 States (WY, MI, NV, ME, AK, CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT)
Huckabee - 6 States (IA, AL, AR, GA, TN, WV)

Of course, all these numbers don't include full delegate tallies, especially for California, so we'll see how it all turns out in the morning.

[MarkG]

the gap widened, cnn says Clinton 668, Obama 557

[Dinner]

So far it is looking like Hillary 668 (193 super delegates), Obama 557 (106 super delegates). That means Hillary has a 111 delegate count lead counting the super delegates and just 26 delegates not counting the super delegates; who could switch their votes at any time they feel like it.

Obama has way out performed Hillary in caucus states (around 2:1) and this Saturday there are caucus states worth 52 delegates. Assuming the current pattern holds (a big if) then that means Hillary will only be 9 delegates ahead, including the super delegates, going into to the Virginia/Maryland/Washington DC primaries where he is heavily favored to win.

That means it will probably be Ohio and Texas who decide the Democratic nominee (assuming Wisconsin goes for Hillary as current polls show once again bringing Hillary and Obama even).

[MarkG]

hmmmm so Obama is hoping for Ohio and Texas to vote for a black guy.....

cbs says Clinton 829, Obama 718 (dif: 111)

http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/d_delegateScorecard.shtml

[Dinner]

Isn't that 111 delegates?

Edit: Ahh, you sneaky editor you.

[MarkG]

i didnt do nothing

[MarkG]

so if the superdelegates can change their mind in a decisive manner then this whole thing of voting is useless

[Dinner]

Agreed. The party elites wanted to pretend the system was democratic while actually maintaining all power for themselves. **** that.