BREAKING NEWS: North Korea claims nuclear test!

[Lord Avalon]

Originally posted by Elok


Er, how do you know? Does he have a Myspace page he lists his fave films on or something? If so, what's his handle on there? "DearLeaderJuche" would be my guess.

How about "Hell on Heels"?

[LordShiva]

How about "Sir Onery?"

[SlowwHand]

I've been thinking about that, Shiva. Let me understand. Are you saying Sir Ornery, with an accent? If you are, that's pretty funny.

[LordShiva]

[SlowwHand]

Well, that's damn good, Shiva.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark



1. Its not clear to me what the Chinese cost-benefit ratio is. They DONT want Nkor to collapse, but they also dont like being humiliated, they dont want a nuclear arms race in east asia, they want to show theyre a responsible power capable of establishing some degree of order in their reason. At some point they have to weigh that against the large, but finite cost of a collapse - a collapse that may well occur eventually anyway, and not necessarily less catastrophically.

In the last efw hours the Chinese have balked from the kind of hard line sanctions that Japan is pushing for. China may be highly disatisfied with NK, but their behavior in the last few days shows they are not eager to do anything that might lead to war, far less a collapse of the regime.

2. The other reason not to make a deal is to avoid setting a precedent of rewarding this kind of behavior.

As I told VJ, what a country can do is based simply on their power. Great Powers get away with bad behavior all the time, they always have, because they are strong. NK is strong enough to make mischief without suffering a serious slapdown unless they do something beyond the pale. Getting nukes is not beyond the pale, as the aquiescence of the world to Pakistani, Israeli, and Indian nuclear arsenals show.

[SlowwHand]

The difference being the people running the show.
China may not want to take a hard line, but even they know there's a lunatic in charge of NK.

[GePap]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
The difference being the people running the show.
China may not want to take a hard line, but even they know there's a lunatic in charge of NK.

There has been a "lunatic" in charge of NK for fifty years. What has changed?

[SlowwHand]

What's changed? He's sitting next door with nukes.

[GePap]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
What's changed? He's sitting next door with nukes.

So? They already have three other nuclear states as neighbors. China isn't going to get hit with them. Neither is SK realistically. The likeliest target is Japan (which is why Japan is the state reacting with the most vehemence).

[SlowwHand]

I understand about Japan. I think China understands about Japan, too. I think they know that if NK draws down on Japan, the world changes.
Now I say again, China should opt to rerail him now. Whether they do or not is yet to be seen.

[GePap]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
I understand about Japan. I think China understands about Japan, too. I think they know that if NK draws down on Japan, the world changes.
Now I say again, China should opt to rerail him now. Whether they do or not is yet to be seen.

And how exactly would "the world change"? I am really curious.

[SlowwHand]

You see no response should NK nuke Japan?

[GePap]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
You see no response should NK nuke Japan?

Certainly a response, but its would not be "world changing." The US nukes NK back, NK collapses, and SK gets stuck with the cost. Probably some sort of economic slowdown in the the region for a few years.

None of that would change the balance of power in the region in a way negative to China, and NK would really only nuke Japan if it was desperate and on the verge of collapse already, or if it was attacked first.

[Drake Tungsten]

The US should just nuke North Korea and China. They can't stop us...