BREAKING NEWS: North Korea claims nuclear test!

[GePap]

Originally posted by VJ

Appeasement is not a long-term solution. If we just ignore them and cut off the ever-increasing bribes of peace (or humanitarian aid, depending from your viewpoint), they could start playing around with their nukes in the future. DPRK is currently testing BMs and nukes. It's official propaganda line is the usual "death to America"-stuff. It would be smart to destroy the future nuke capabilities of the regime or the regime itself now when it's easy, now when they still won't have a combination of a working nuke and a working missile delivery system.

Except its NOT easy, and in the end deterrence would keep NK from using its nukes offensively. The only time NK might do so is if it feels it has nothing to lose, AKA, when attacked.

Its nice though how you are willing to take a stand with other people's money and lives.

[Elok]

Really, I'm still not sure what we stand to gain by continuing peacefully. KJI can keep threatening to fall apart forever and using it to get our help. Can somebody please tell me if they see a nonviolent way out of this?

[RGBVideo]

KJI can keep threatening to fall apart forever and using it to get our help. Can somebody please tell me if they see a nonviolent way out of this?

Refuse to help, cut off aid, then do nothing and ignore their sabre-rattling. If deterrence keeps NK from using nukes offensively, peace will follow.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by GePap


a first use by the US of nukes better be off the table. The military effect would be limited unless multiple warheads were used, and the political fallout would be just as bad as the environmental one.

Air power and counter-battery fire should be enough to mitigate the barrage in a few hours, and of course at some point the Nkorean forces would have to swith to using their artillery in support of their forces as oposed for strategic bombardment, assuming they also don;t run out of ammo, or the ability to bring ammo forward with their lines of supply under attack.

The instant they start firing we have to plaster the entire DMZ with enhanced radiation warheads at the least.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Elok
Really, I'm still not sure what we stand to gain by continuing peacefully. KJI can keep threatening to fall apart forever and using it to get our help. Can somebody please tell me if they see a nonviolent way out of this?

Simple, give the little bastard as little as possible for peace. Its called "tribute."

No one wants war, and the countries that would bear the cost of a catastrophic collapse of NK are not willing to bear that cost. That means an impasse, short and simple. So if no one is really willing to bear the cost of a war or regime collapse, then what the **** is the point of not breaking a deal? Ideological purity? Our moral sanctity? Yeah, fine, whatever, but those things don't mean **** in the real world.

The wold is not made up of fine, clean choices, only gray or costly ones.

[RGBVideo]

Simple, give the little bastard as little as possible for peace. Its called "tribute."
[..]
So if no one is really willing to bear the cost of a war or regime collapse, then what the **** is the point of not breaking a deal?

Bribes have the habit of growing indefinitely.

And it'll set an example for the rest of the world to follow. Hear this, dictators around the world: make nukes, easy money to follow!

Like I said, appeasement is not a long-term solution.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by GePap
Simple, give the little bastard as little as possible for peace. Its called "tribute."

No one wants war, and the countries that would bear the cost of a catastrophic collapse of NK are not willing to bear that cost. That means an impasse, short and simple. So if no one is really willing to bear the cost of a war or regime collapse, then what the **** is the point of not breaking a deal? Ideological purity? Our moral sanctity? Yeah, fine, whatever, but those things don't mean **** in the real world.

The wold is not made up of fine, clean choices, only gray or costly ones.

^^ Kissinger would be proud

[SlowwHand]

My God, GePap. You've joined me in reality.

[GePap]

Originally posted by VJ

Bribes have the habit of growing indefinetily.

Really? That is not the NK example. They never even got the light water reactor. NK is rather cheap actually, fuel oil and rice is not that expensive.

And it'll set an example for the rest of the world to follow. Hear this, dictators around the world: make nukes, easy money to follow!

Except that this is false. NK is where it is because it is far more proficient scientifically, far more heavily armed, and in a more strategically important position than any other tin pot dictatorship. Some leader of some crappystan without a large sicentific establishement and a two bit army would not be able to get anything because their threats would not be realisitc. It boils down to basic power. NK is in a position were it has enough power to be a threat to major powers. Any other dictatorship in such a position will have such an ability as well. Most dictatorships aren't in that position.

Like I said, appeasement is not a long-term solution.

Its no meant to be. Its a policy, one used if the threat is not worse than the cost of removing it.

[GePap]

Originally posted by LordShiva


^^ Kissinger would be proud

Kissinger was and is an amoral bastard. That does not mean he was not a good diplomat. IN some ways, those things are synonimous.

[RGBVideo]

NK is rather cheap actually

Currently? I agree.

Some leader of some crappystan without a large sicentific establishement and a two bit army would not be able to get anything because their threats would not be realisitc

And DPRK is not a "crappystan without a large scientific establishement"? We disagree.

Any armed forces have to be taken seriously if they have working missiles with nuclear warheads.

Hear this, dictators around the world: make nukes, easy money to follow!

Except that this is false.

If Iran will get nukes, we'll see.

GePap, what do you think will happen to DPRK when KJI dies?

[Elok]

I said a way OUT of this. Not "a way to continue subsidizing crimes against humanity/nuke research in a permanently unstable country." So what you're saying, GePap, is that there is no peaceful way out of this. Okay then.

[GePap]

Originally posted by VJ

Any armed forces have to be taken seriously if they have working missiles with nuclear warheads.

Except that everyone took NK's military seriously prior to them having nukes, and rightly so.

If Iran will get nukes, we'll see.

Iran's economy is amongst the top 20 or #21 when ranked by PPP, and 31 out of 180 by GDP, one of the top three largest oil exporters, strategically situated, and has rugged terrain making land invasion difficult. Iran is another example of a country powerful enough to get its way.

Now, if the generals in Burma go nuclear anytime soon, then you may have a point. BUt i doubt it.

GePap, what do you think will happen to DPRK when KJI dies?

If he dies before having had a son he can pass on the dynasty to, I would predict a fight between Generals for power, one which the country might not "survive." There is no established clear succession. A common problem for dynastic regimes.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by VJ
Appeasement is not a long-term solution.

No, it's not. I won't disagree with you there.

If we just ignore them and cut off the ever-increasing bribes of peace (or humanitarian aid, depending from your viewpoint), they could start playing around with their nukes in the future. DPRK is currently testing BMs and nukes. It's official propaganda line is the usual "death to America"-stuff. It would be smart to destroy the future nuke capabilities of the regime or the regime itself now when it's easy, now when they still won't have a combination of a working nuke and a working missile delivery system.

Define "easy". As I've mentioned before, doing such a thing would by no means be "easy"; if anything, it would be just as big a cluster**** as another adventure of ours in the Middle East. (Well, at least with this administration it would be. Supposing a good administration, it would still be nothing short of a disaster for the SKoreans.)

The reason why SKorea is so dead set on appeasing NKorea with that hare-brained Sunshine Policy is because they feel (rather correctly) that they cannot pay the price of a war right now, nor can they pay the price of unification. Continuing to funnel the North money will buy them more time... and feed rather silly hopes that the North will some how turn itself around.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by GePap


Simple, give the little bastard as little as possible for peace. Its called "tribute."

No one wants war, and the countries that would bear the cost of a catastrophic collapse of NK are not willing to bear that cost. That means an impasse, short and simple. So if no one is really willing to bear the cost of a war or regime collapse, then what the **** is the point of not breaking a deal? Ideological purity? Our moral sanctity? Yeah, fine, whatever, but those things don't mean **** in the real world.

The wold is not made up of fine, clean choices, only gray or costly ones.

Frankly, this is very similar to what SKorea's doing. They're just calling it something else, and they're giving them more aid/money than they need to, but...