BREAKING NEWS: North Korea claims nuclear test!

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Jon, back when I still had a full head of hair, the dangers of limited nuclear war was a very popular theme on the left. Thats when the EEVIL Reaganites were suggesting a limited nuclear war wasnt such a bad thing, and when nuclear proliferation was discussed in terms of South Africa, rightist Argentina, and Israel. Now that the EEVIL neocons use nuclear programs as reasons to invade countries and talk about Axii of Evil, the dangers of limited nuclear wars are not so great. A parallel evolution of the horrors of chemical warfare has taken place as well.

MOst of the left is still on about the evils of nuclear war. I don;t see anyone in the left championing the neo-cons call for new types of nukes. Your comparison holds no water. If anything, the Dems have gor years now been crowing about how Bush ignored Iran and NK and went after Iraq, ignoring the real nuclear threat.

The statements by liberals on nukes still does not change the fact most of them are ignorant about the real abilities of nukes, and their limits.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by GePap
Also, getting nukes outside of the NPT is still "illegal". Just because you say you don;t accept a law does not mean everyone else didn't and thus is remains a law.

The countries involved didn't sign the treaty, and there is no legislative body with the authority to make laws to which they would be subject.

[GePap]

Originally posted by LordShiva


The countries involved didn't sign the treaty, and there is no legislative body with the authority to make laws to which they would be subject.

There is no "international legislative body" to speak off period.

I think people a re forgetting the fact that the NPT allows states to leave it. NK left the NPT. It had as much right to nukes thus as all those three states. The fact it previously signed the NPT is immaterial since any state that signed it can and does have the right to leave.

That the UNSC is planning to sanction NK for conducting a nuclear test shows that the UNSC could have done the same to India, Pakistan, or Israel at any time for their rejection of international nuclear norms. Not that the UNSC ever would, given the size and importance of INdia and Pakistan and the connnections of Israel.

[LordShiva]

Exactly, so it isn't "illegal" for non-signatories to acquire nuclear weapons.

Also, India and Pakistan were sanctioned (not by the UN, but by individual countries). It was certainly within those countries' rights to impose sanctions, and it was within the UNSC's rights to do so as well.

But North Korea's actions are still illegal. They withdrew from the NPT in 2003, but as we all know, had been in violation prior to their withdrawal.

[GePap]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Exactly, so it isn't "illegal" for non-signatories to acquire nuclear weapons.

Also, India and Pakistan were sanctioned (not by the UN, but by individual countries). It was certainly within those countries' rights to impose sanctions, and it was within the UNSC's rights to do so as well.

Nations were bound to sanction those states according to their commitment to the NPT, which bans nuclear assistance to any state not in the NPT. Those sanctions though have been weak at best, and most of them are slowly going away, especially now with this deal between the admin. and India.

But North Korea's actions are still illegal. They withdrew from the NPT in 2003, but as we all know, had been in violation prior to their withdrawal.

So what? That they were in violation three years ago is utterly irrelevant to actions today. There is no retroactive sanctioning by the UNSC. Besides, NK got in trouble more for violating their deals with the US and SK than the NPT.

[SlowwHand]

See, this is what starts wars. Not having clear and concise rules that everyone understands. They all need to be aware of the ramifications of being a member, or not being. If you're not, don't be standing there with your hand out.

[GePap]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
See, this is what starts wars. Not having clear and concise rules that everyone understands. They all need to be aware of the ramifications of being a member, or not being. If you're not, don't be standing there with your hand out.

Except that three countries ignored the rules from the start, and suffered little for it.

And the five countries allowed to keep nukes in what was clearly a two tiered, unequal system, have never really done **** to work towards the goal of no nukes themselves. How can we be surprised that this system is starting to fall apart?

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by GePap
So what? That they were in violation three years ago is utterly irrelevant to actions today.

The UNSC is mob justice. It can impose sanctions on whomever it wants, and it can lift them whenever it wants. Same with the countries that imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan.

[SlowwHand]

Now wait. Some sanctions, economic for instance, is fully at a country's prerogative anyway. Well within it's rights.

Just making sure we all are on same page.

Military sanctions, like a ship at the entrance to a bay, that might be another point.

[GePap]

Originally posted by LordShiva


The UNSC is mob justice. It can impose sanctions on whomever it wants, and it can lift them whenever it wants. Same with the countries that imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan.

Maybe you missed it, but the NPT states that states who are members have to limit certain types of deals with states that are non-members, specially in anything having to do with nuclear technology. US law itself stated that sanctions should have been placed on both India and Pakistan, though most have been ignored.

As for NK, they are being punished now not for what they did from 1997 to 2002, but for what they just did.

[DRoseDARs]

An interesting flip-flopping from the AP article I posted earlier this evening:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061014/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_nkorea

U.S.: Test points to N. Korea nuke blast

By ROBERT BURNS and ANNE GEARAN, Associated Press Writers 34 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - An air sampling taken after
North Korea's claimed nuclear test detected radioactive debris consistent with an atomic explosion, Bush administration and congressional officials said Friday night. They said no final determination had been made about the nature of last weekend's mystery-shrouded blast.

One U.S. government official said intelligence officials assigned an 80 percent probability that the North Korean explosion was a nuclear detonation, based on the air sample collected Wednesday. The official said it appeared highly unlikely that the sample of radioactive material was produced by any other source, including a nuclear power reactor.

The official also said additional sampling might be conducted, not necessarily by airborne means. He would not elaborate, citing security concerns.

A senior administration official suggested that the North Korean test was a dud. "The betting is that this was an attempt at a nuclear test that failed," the official said. "We don't think they were trying to fake a nuclear test, but it may have been a nuclear fizzle."

The officials who described the results spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information.

North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test Monday sent shock waves throughout Asia and around the world.
President Bush has called for stiff
United Nations sanctions on North Korea, while refusing appeals by U.N. Secretary-General
Kofi Annan and others to take part in one-one-one talks with the reclusive communist regime.

Since North Korea's announcement, the United States and other nations have been conducting scientific tests to determine whether a nuclear explosion had occurred.

The administration briefed key members of Congress about the preliminary test results of an air sample an official said was collected above Qunggye, near the area of the claimed nuclear test.

Results from another test disclosed Friday — an initial air sampling on Tuesday — showed no evidence of radioactive particles that would be expected from a successful nuclear detonation, a U.S. government intelligence official said.

The contradictory readings reinforced uncertainty about the size and success of Monday's underground explosion, which North Korea has trumpeted as a nuclear test. Data from seismic sensors have already indicated the explosion was smaller than expected.

The Chinese and Japanese governments have done their own air sampling and found no trace of radioactive material, officials from both countries said Friday. A Japanese government official said his country sampled air over the Sea of Japan, as well as rainfall and ground-level air on Japanese territory and found nothing.

A spokesman for National Intelligence Director John Negroponte declined to comment on any findings from U.S. spy agencies.

One Republican lawmaker, citing the release of "intelligence reports appearing to confirm the likelihood of a North Korean nuclear test," backed Bush's call for a return to international talks. But the lawmaker, Rep. Heather Wilson (news, bio, voting record), R-N.M., also parted company with the president, saying that if a "prominent American delegation — preferably a bipartisan one — get North Korea to walk back from the ledge, we should do so."

The State Department, meanwhile, announced that Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice will travel to China,
South Korea and Japan next week to discuss steps to pressure North Korea to drop its nuclear efforts and to assess the region's security situation.

Members of the
U.N. Security Council agreed Friday on wording of a resolution that would clamp sanctions on the communist country. The draft, scheduled for a Saturday vote, would authorize nonmilitary sanctions against the North, and says that any further action the council might want to take would require another U.N. resolution.

It also eliminates a blanket arms embargo from a tougher, previous draft, instead targeting specific equipment for sanctions including missiles, tanks, warships and combat aircraft.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that on Rice's trip, "she's going to be talking about the passage of that resolution certainly, but really what comes after."

Rice's trip is meant to present a unified front to North Korea, which will be looking for any cracks in the diplomatic coalition behind the U.N. statement. Coming less than a month before midterm congressional elections, Rice's trip is also an opportunity for the Bush administration to highlight its work countering dangerous regimes and terror threats.

Beyond the threat to Asian neighbors and perhaps other nations posed by a nuclear North Korea, the administration is worried that Pyongyang could sell its nuclear know-how to terrorists or other potential U.S. enemies, including
Iran.

"Now is the time really to be very firm — to be calm, but firm — and to make clear to the North Koreans that no one is going to accept them as a nuclear weapons state," Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said Friday at the National Press Club.

Analysts and government officials have said it may take weeks or longer to determine with confidence whether the North Korean explosion was nuclear.

The negative air sample was taken Tuesday by a specialized aircraft, the WC-135, flying from Kadena air base in Okinawa, Japan. It apparently took the sample over the Sea of Japan, between the Korean mainland and Japan.

In Beijing, a government official said Friday that Chinese monitoring also has found no evidence of airborne radiation from the test-explosion. The official with the State Environmental Protection Administration said China has been monitoring air samples since Monday.

The U.S., which has sought tough steps in the United Nations that could leave the door open to a blockade or other military action, has had to give ground to gain support from China and Russia. Those countries, along with South Korea, have been reluctant to abandon diplomatic efforts to resolve the standoff.

[Dis]

how can they do an airborne test without crossing into their airspace?

You could take one in the sea of japan. But it would seem to be so diluteed, you couldn't get much.

[SlowwHand]

U.N. approves sanctions on North Korea

By EDITH M. LEDERER, Associated Press Writer
18 minutes ago

UNITED NATIONS - The
U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose punishing sanctions on
North Korea including ship searches for banned weapons, calling Pyongyang's claimed nuclear test "a clear threat to international peace and security."

North Korea immediately rejected the resolution, and its U.N. ambassador walked out of the council chamber after accusing its members of a "gangster-like" action which neglects the nuclear threat posed by the United States.

The U.S.-sponsored resolution demands that the reclusive communist nation abandon its nuclear weapons program, and orders all countries to prevent North Korea from importing or exporting any material for weapons of mass destruction or ballistic missiles. It orders nations to freeze assets of people or businesses connected to these programs, and ban the individuals from traveling.

The resolution also calls on all countries to inspect cargo leaving and arriving in North Korea to prevent any illegal trafficking in unconventional weapons or ballistic missiles. The final draft was softened from language authorizing searches, but was still unacceptable to China — the North's closest ally — which said it would not carry out any searches.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said North Korea's proclaimed test "poses one of the gravest threats to international peace and security that this council has ever had to confront."

"Today, we are sending a strong and clear message to North Korea and other would be proliferators that there will be serious repercussions in continuing to pursue weapons of mass destruction," he said, in what appeared to be a clear warning to Iran whose nuclear ambitions come before the Security Council again next week.

North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Pak Gil Yon countered by blaming the United States for forcing the country to conduct a test because of its "nuclear threat, sanctions and pressure."

"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is ready for talks, dialogue and confrontation," Ambassador Pak Gil Yon said. "If the United States increases pressure upon the Democratic People's Republic of Korea persistently, the DPRK will continue to take physical countermeasures considering it as a declaration of war."

North Korea has made similar threats in the past, and has also said it might conduct a second nuclear test in response to U.N. sanctions.

The vote came after the United States, Britain and France overcame last-minute differences with Russia and China during what the Russian ambassador called "tense negotiations."

The resolution demands North Korea eliminate all its nuclear weapons but expressly rules out military action against the country, a demand by the Russians and Chinese. Bolton warned Pyongyang, however, that if it continues pursuing nuclear weapons, the U.S. would seek further measures.

The Security Council condemned the nuclear test that North Korea said it conducted on Oct 9. It demanded that North Korea immediately return to six-nation talks aimed at persuading Pyongyang to dismantle its weapons program without precondition.

It also imposed sanctions for the North's "flagrant disregard" of the council's appeal not to detonate a nuclear device and demanded that North Korea "not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile."

"This action by the
United Nations, which was swift and tough, says that we are united in our determination to see to it that the Korean Peninsula is nuclear-weapons free,"
President Bush said.

South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, who was chosen on Friday to become the next U.N. secretary-general, said in an interview with The Associated Press that the council's resolution "sends a very strong, clear and unified message to North Korea."

"I hope that North Korea will comply with this resolution," he said. "I hope that all member states of the United Nations will fully implement this resolution."

In a measure aimed at North Korea's tiny elite, the resolution bans the sale of luxury goods to the country. The North's reclusive leader, Kim Jong Il, is known for his love of cognac and lobster and collection of thousands of bottles of vintage French wine.

To meet Russian and Chinese concerns, the Americans eliminated a complete ban on the sale of conventional weapons. Instead, the resolution limits the embargo to major hardware such as tanks, warships, combat aircraft and missiles.

The council's go-ahead for the inspection of cargo gave broader global scope to the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative launched in 2003 which urges countries to stop banned weapons from suspect countries including North Korea and Iran.

China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya said Beijing allowed the cargo provision to be included in what he called a "watered-down" resolution even though the government is opposed to it.

"China strongly urges the countries concerned to adopt a prudent and responsible attitude in this regard and refrain from taking any provocative steps that may intensify the tensions," he said.

Wang said he did not consider the North Korean ambassador's response the official reply from Pyongyang, which he awaits. "The important thing is not what they say here," Wang said.

The overriding issue, he said, is "how we work together for peace and security in the region."

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said Moscow got what it wanted — a strong resolution but one that is also aimed at "prevention of a further escalation of tension."

North Korea's Pak told the Security Council that the nuclear test was not inconsistent with the country's goal of a denuclearized Korean peninsula.

"The DPRK clarified more than once that it would feel no need to possess even a single nuke when it is no longer exposed to the United States' threat, after it has dropped its hostile policy to the DPRK and confidence has been built between the two countries," he said.

Following Pak's speech, Bolton took the floor again saying "I'm not going to waste any our time responding." But he noted that North Korea had done Saturday exactly what it did in July after the council adopted limited sanctions for its ballistic missile tests — immediately reject the resolution and walk out.

"It is the contemporary equivalent of Nikita Khrushchev pounding his shoe on the desk," Bolton said, referring to the Soviet leader's legendary act of protest at the U.N. General Assembly in 1960.

Bolton later told reporters that the next step is to start work on implementing the resolution.

"Hopefully on saner reflections perhaps they'll begin to accept that if they don't change course, the only future for them is continued isolation," he said.

On Friday, U.S. officials said an air sampling after North Korea's claimed nuclear test detected radioactive debris consistent with an atomic explosion. However, the Bush administration and congressional officials said no final determination had been made about the nature of Monday's mystery-shrouded blast.

The U.S. and other nations trying to persuade the North to give up its atomic program continued a flurry of high-level diplomatic visits, including a trip to Asia by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice meant to present a unified front to North Korea.

The resolution invokes Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which the U.S. views as a necessary because it makes economic and diplomatic sanctions mandatory.

China and Russia normally object to the Chapter 7 provision because it carries the possibility of military enforcement. The Bush administration used the same provision to justify its invasion of
Iraq, and Moscow and Beijing worry the U.S. might do the same eventually with North Korea — even though Bush has said the U.S. has no plans to attack.

But in a compromise also used in July to unanimously vote on a resolution condemning North Korean missile launches, the text added mention of Article 41 of the chapter, which permits only "means not involving the use of military force."

A Russian nuclear envoy who visited North Korea said Saturday he pressed the North to return to six-nation nuclear disarmament talks. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alexeyev said he had a "very useful" meeting Friday with Kim Gye Gwan, the North's nuclear negotiator, but did not say how Kim responded.

Pyongyang has boycotted the six-nation talks for the past 13 months to protest financial measures imposed by Washington for alleged counterfeiting and money-laundering.

[DRoseDARs]

An interesting article on the Chinese angle in all this:

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=12102

Without Sanction
How to deal with a madman with nuclear weapons if economic sanctions have little impact on him.

By Robert B. Reich
Web Exclusive: 10.13.06

The problem is North Korea is run by someone who -- whether clinically mad or not -- doesn’t seem to mind if his own people starve.

That desolate nation’s survival depends on two to three billion dollars of goods and money flowing in each year in order to feed and clothe its military and prevent a wholesale meltdown of its economy. But it’s already near meltdown.

China is supplying some food and fuel, and North Korea’s state-run enterprises are exporting a trickle of legitimate goods. But the United States has already interrupted flows of cash going into the country in exchange for illicit weapons, counterfeiting, and drug running. The Treasury has frozen international accounts of North Korean banks. Other penalties the United Nations could impose might include blocking North Korean ships, banning travel, and cutting off North Korea from world financial markets.

The idea would be to tighten the economic vise until -- until what?

That’s the issue. Millions of people in that desolate land are already on the verge of starvation. Kim Jung Il doesn’t seem to care. At some point the economic vise could become so tight that even Kim’s military brass don’t get adequate food and clothing, and maybe that drives them to pop him off. But by that time, who knows how many North Koreans will have perished.

Economics assumes people act rationality in their own self interest. But there’s no guarantee of rational decision-making in North Korea, no checks and balances, no high-level council of wise strategists. All power is centralized in Kim Jung Il, who has not distinguished himself for being among the most rational of world leaders. And there’s no obvious successor.

Some say Kim is only responding to what he perceives as an escalating threat of hostilities from the Bush administration. But Kim was on his way to developing a nuclear bomb before George W. Bush came to the White House. To be sure, the Bush hasn't improved the situation. It has refused to meet with him. And it has focused all its energies on Iraq -- where there were no weapons of mass destruction -- rather than North Korea, where they were clearly on the way. That's proven a tragic mistake. Of all the so-called "axes of evil," Kim’s was the most dangerous from the start.

What to do now? China holds the cards here. China is the only friend Kim Jung Il has in the world. He’s entirely dependent on his colossal neighbor for food and fuel. China doesn’t want his regime to collapse because the ensuing chaos would send millions of refugees steaming into China, and force a takeover of that desolate nation by South Korea. Not even South Korea wants the huge financial burden that would entail -- which would make German reunification look cheap by comparison.

But nor does China want a nuclear North Korea, because that might prompt Japan to adopt nuclear weapons to counter the threat, which could lead to South Korea and even Taiwan to do so, too.

If China is smart it will bribe Kim Jung Il to give up his nuclear program -- dangling economic benefits, new investment, modern infrastructure. China could help transform North Korea into another Asian tiger, which would make it far less dangerous to everyone, including China.

Kim Jung Il may not be rational, but the Chinese leadership is. And they’re our best hope now for a rational outcome to this mess.

Robert B. Reich is co-founder of The American Prospect. A version of this column originally appeared on Marketplace.

This was written before the 15-0 UNSC vote (China is one of five permanent members on the UN Security Council for those that didn't know) for sanctions against NK, so maybe China is finally getting a little more serious about this.

[SlowwHand]

The Dwarf has been the one refusing to meet.