CANPOL: Today is election day

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Let's get ahead of ourselves - how long will a Conservative minority government last, and what will be the issue that topples it?

27 months and they will call an election after their third budget

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Asher
Does the 21st century playbook involve running 18 year old highschool dropouts as candidates?

I know everyone will give a big to this - but it doesn't matter who their candidates are until they can actually win seats.

[Flinx]

While I might move some of Ben's marginal seats to the other contender in those ridings, I do not think his predictions for Québec and the Atlantic Provinces are too far off.

[Kontiki]

I'm actually thinking of voting for the NDP, much to even my own surprise. My riding is purely a Lib-NDP shootout - the Cons are a complete non-factor (and frankly, not worth my vote since they seem to have done literally zero campaigning here). If the NDP had any chance of actually forming the government, I wouldn't vote for them, but like Flubber I think they bring something good to the table when they have a decent number of seats in Parliament. Plus, I think my NDP candidate, Olivia Chow, would actually be a good individual MP.

[Ben Kenobi]

ONTARIO

Metro Toronto:

LIB Safe

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Etobicoke North
Parkdale-High Park
Scarborough-Agincourt
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge River
Scarborough-Southwest
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Willowdale
York Centre
York South-Weston
York West

NDP Safe

Toronto-Danforth

NDP Marginal

Trinity-Spadina

Total:

LIB 20
NDP 2

905:

CON Safe

Dufferin-Caledon
Durham
Niagara Falls
Niagara West-Glanbrook
Oshawa
York-Simcoe

CON Marginal

Ajax-Pickering
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Burlington
Halton
Mississauga-Erindale
Mississauga-Streetsville
Newmarket-Aurora
Oakville
St. Catharines
Whitby-Oshawa

LIB Safe

Brampton-Sprindale
Brampton West
Markham-Unionville
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga South
Pickering-Scarborough East
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan
Welland
Oak Ridges-Markham

NDP Safe

Hamilton Centre

NDP Marginal

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain

Total:

CON 17
LIB 12
NDP 3

Eastern:

CON Safe:

Carleton-Mississippi Mills
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Leeds-Grenville
Nepean-Carleton
Prince Edward-Hastings
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

CON Marginal

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Northumberland-Quinte West
Ottawa Orleans
Ottawa South
Ottawa-West Nepean
Peterborough

LIB Safe

Kingston and the Islands
Ottawa-Vanier

NDP Safe

Ottawa Centre

Total:

CON 14
LIB 2
NDP 1

Northern:

CON Marginal

Nipissing-Timiskaming
Parry Sound-Muskoka

LIB Safe

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing

LIB Marginal

Nickel Belt
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Sudbury

NDP Safe

Sault-Ste. Marie
Timmins-James Bay

NDP Marginal

Kenora
Thunder Bay-Rainy-River

Totals:

LIB 4
NDP 4
CON 2

Southwestern:

CON Safe:

Haldimand-Norfolk
Cambridge
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Essex
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Oxford
Perth Wellington
Simcoe Grey
Wellington-Halton Hills

CON Marginal

Barrie
Brant
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
London-Fanshawe
Simcoe North

LIB Safe

Guelph
Huron-Bruce
Kitchener-Centre
Kitchener-Waterloo
London-North Centre
London West
Sarnia-Lambton

NDP Safe

Windsor-Tecumseh
Windsor West

Total:

CON 16
LIB 7
NDP 2

TOTAL ONTARIO

CON 49
LIB 45
NDP 12

[Asher]

I met Olivia Chow last election. I'd vote for her, too.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by dejon
I know everyone will give a big to this - but it doesn't matter who their candidates are until they can actually win seats.

Well yes and no. They are not going to get their first seat if they run only 18 year old high school dropouts, but running 300 'losers' and 8 electable candidates might not be too bad a strategy.

[DinoDoc]

Out of curiosity, was it reasonable for the Liberals to think that taking an Anti-US stance might work for them or was that a plea of desperation?

[Asher]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Out of curiosity, was it reasonable for the Liberals to think that taking an Anti-US stance might work for them or was that a plea of desperation?

Absolutely

[Kontiki]

A little from column A, a little from column B.

[Ben Kenobi]

BRITISH COLUMBIA

Lower Mainland:

CON Safe

Abbotsford
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
Langley
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Delta-Richmond East
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

CON Marginal

Fleetwood-Port Kells
New Westminster-Coquitlam
North Vancouver
Richmond
Surrey North

LIB Safe

Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

LIB Marginal

Vancouver Centre
Newton-North Delta
Vancouver Kingsway

NDP Safe

Vancouver East

NDP Marginal

Burnaby Douglas
Burnaby-New westminster

Total:

CON 13
LIB 5
NDP 3

Vancouver Island:

CON Marginal:

Nanaimo-Alberni
Saanich-Gulf Islands

NDP Safe:

Nanaimo Cowichan

NDP Marginal:

Esquimault-Juan de Fuca
Victoria
Vancouver Island North

Total:

NDP 4
CON 2

Interior:

CON Safe:

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kootenay-Columbia
Okanagan-Coquihalla
Okanagan-Shuswap
Prince George-Peace River
Cariboo-Prince George

CON Marginal:

Skeena-Bulkley Valley

NDP safe:

Southern Interior

Total:

CON 8
NDP 1

BC TOTAL:

CON 23
NDP 8
LIB 5

[Flubber]

I was thinking, tomorrow should be an interesting day for the markets here. We will have an election result, the fallout from the news of Ford laying off a bunch of people AND it is predicted that interest rates will rise.

So all in all a fun day.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Kontiki
A little from column A, a little from column B.

Have such tactics worked in the past?

[Ben Kenobi]

PRAIRIES

Alberta:

Edmonton:

CON Safe:

Edmonton East
Edmonton-Leduc
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
Edmonton-Sherwood Park
Edmonton-Spruce Grove
Edmonton-St. Albert
Edmonton-Strathcona

CON Marginal:

Edmonton Centre

Total:

CON 8


Calgary:

CON Safe:

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary-Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West

Total:

CON 8

Rural:

CON Safe:

Crowfoot
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville-Wainwright
Westlock-St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Total:

CON 12

Alberta TOTAL:

CON 28

Saskatchewan:

CON Safe:

Battlefords-Lloydminster
Blackstrap
Cypress Hills-Grasslands
Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
Palliser
Prince Albert
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Regina- Qu'Appelle
Saskatoon-Humboldt
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
Souris-Moose Mountain
Yorkton-Melville

LIB Safe:

Wascana

Saskatchewan Total:

CON 13
LIB 1

Manitoba:

Winnipeg:

CON Safe:

Charleswood-St. James- Assiniboia
Kildonan-St. Paul

CON Marginal:

Winnipeg South Centre

NDP Safe:

Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg Centre
Winnipeg North

LIB Safe:

Saint Boniface
Winnipeg South

Total:

CON 3
NDP 3
LIB 2

Rural:

CON Safe:

Brandon Souris
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
Portage-Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk Interlake

IND marginal

Churchill (Desjarlais)

Total:

CON 5
IND 1

TOTAL Manitoba:

CON 8
NDP 3
LIB 2
IND 1

Arctic:

LIB Safe:

Yukon
Nunavut

NDP Marginal

NWT

Total Arctic:

LIB 2
NDP 1

TOTAL PRAIRIES:

CON 49
LIB 5
NDP 4
IND 1

[Ben Kenobi]

ELECTION TOTAL

152 CON
77 LIB
61 BQ
27 NDP
1 IND (Desjarlais)