CANPOL: Today is election day

[Flubber]

Since Ming just closed the last one right at the 500 mark-- it is time for yet another thread on the topic of Canadian politics. I expect a lot of predictions, counter-predictions and handwringing before this election day is out so do not disappoint.


An election day deserves a new thread anyway

[Hot Mustard]

Go Go Green!

[Flubber]

It looks like someone is trying to play a joke

Voting begins amid warning about bogus election e-mail
Last Updated Mon, 23 Jan 2006 10:16:29 EST
CBC News
As Canadians headed to the polls Monday, beginning in Newfoundland, Elections Canada was warning them not to be led astray by a fraudulent e-mail about the election that has been circulating.

Elections Canada said the bogus e-mail bears the agency's logo and the name of Jean-Pierre Kingsley, chief electoral officer, and incorrectly states that people can vote on two days – Monday and Tuesday.

"The only polling day is Monday, Jan. 23," Elections Canada said in a statement posted on its website.

"This message does not come from Elections Canada, and is against the law," the agency added.

The warning was issued as the heads of the major political parties – Liberal Leader Paul Martin, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, New Democrat Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe – whirled through a packed weekend schedule of events, rallies and appearances.


FROM JAN. 22, 2006: Martin courts B.C. as campaign winds down


FROM JAN. 22, 2006: Harper reaches out to Quebec voters


FROM JAN. 22, 2006: Layton criticizes Tory policies


FROM JAN. 22, 2006: Duceppe critical of Conservative cabinet offer

Electoral officials said they became aware of the e-mail after someone in a B.C. riding took a copy to the local returning officer.

Elections Canada has asked that anyone with information about the source of the message contact the agency.


The agency also said there have been reports that some candidates' materials listed incorrect information about the addresses and voting hours for polling stations.

Electoral officials said voters could check the addresses and hours of polling stations on its website or on voter information cards that were mailed out in recent weeks.

This reminds me of those chestnuts of people being told in the states that Republicans vote on Tuesday and Demodrats on Wednesday.

[Kontiki]

Let's get ahead of ourselves - how long will a Conservative minority government last, and what will be the issue that topples it?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Let's get ahead of ourselves - how long will a Conservative minority government last, and what will be the issue that topples it?

I should defer on that one until I see the election results. BUT

But if we assume a minority government, I think it would last at least two years. The reason is that I think the Liberals will be in no position to fight a campaign again before that unless the Conservatives do something monumentally stupid.

Basically my view is that the worse the Liberals get hurt this election, the longer until the next one . They will find justifications to support the government issue by issue but the main factor will be pragmatic self interest.

The issue that leads to a non-confidence vote will be irrelevant IMHO. While its nice to have a nice issue to rally around, I simply think that the opposition parties will bring down a government whenever they think they can improve their position in the next election.

THat said, it will be difficult to see why the bloc would evern want another election soon ( if projections hold). This election could mark their highest point ever!!

[Garth Vader]

I found this "voting guide" posted elsewhere and figured I'd post it for election day amusement.

Do vote Conservative if you believe in decentralization and a weak federal government which provincial interests can easily override. Do vote Conservative if you are rich and you want massive tax cuts, right now. If you are a moderate do vote Conservative if you believe Stephen Harper has, over the last 3 years, suddenly changed his mind about everything he worked for for his entire life. If you are an extreme winger do vote Conservative if you believe Stephen Harper, over the last three years, has not suddenly changed his mind about everything he worked for his entire life. Do vote Conservative if you are a social conservative who believes some Canadians don't deserve the same rights as other Canadians. Do vote Conservative if you believe that Ottawa, which spends 18% of its income on debt repayment, is somehow fiscally screwing the provinces, which spend 10% of their income on debt repayment. Do vote Conservative if you believe in tax cuts and spending promises before paying down the federal debt.

Do not vote Conservative if you believe in a strong federal government. Do not vote Conservative if you are a fiscal conservative who doesn't like voting for the party with the biggest combination of tax cuts and spending promises. Do not vote Conservative if you work in manufacturing or live in the Golden Horseshoe. Do not vote Conservative if you believe every Canadian should be treated equally before the law.

Do vote Liberal if you believe the most important thing the government does is manage the economy and the federal budget. Do vote Liberal if you are rich but are willing to get your tax cuts when the government can afford them (Martin's your boy, he's delivered, he'll keep delivering.) Do vote Liberal if making the right decisions on most policy decisions, including going to war, is important to you, even if it does take Martin longer and more dithering than you'd like.

Do not vote Liberal if you think not being corrupt is more important than being competent. Do not vote Liberal if you want a Prime Minister who doesn't dither before doing the right thing. Do not vote Liberal if you think the Liberals need a new leader. Do not vote Liberal if you believe the country needs radical change, because things are just so awful with how the Liberals have paid down the debt, reducing the unemployment rate, and in general managed the economy well.

Do vote NDP if you want a federalist alternative that is not corrupt. Do vote NDP if you believe the federal government has an imortant role to play in Canada and can actually solve problems. Do vote NDP if you don't believe in deep integration with the US. Do vote NDP if you want tax policies which are both balanced and don't include even further tax cuts for the rich. Do vote NDP if you want to rewad a party that actually tried to get something done last parliament rather than engaging in nothing but partisan mud slinging. Do vote NDP if MPs behaving honorably is what you like to see.

Don't vote NDP if you think that the federal government shouldnt' be trying to solve problems. Don't vote NDP if you think Canada should bow down to US demands because it's better to do the wrong thing than to risk US displeasure. Don't vote NDP if you're rich and think that government should only tax the poor and middle class, but not you. Don't vote NDP if MPs behaving dishonourably and like infants is what you prefer seeing. Don't vote NDP if you have some sort of hatred for unions.

Vote Green if you really can't stand the other parties and you don't actually want to spoil your ballot.

Vote Bloc is you're a Quebec Seperatist.

But whatever you do, vote. Voting's how you make a statement about what sort of Canada you believe in and what kind of Canada you want to see.

[Asher]

Originally posted by dejon
Go Go Green!

You can't be serious?

You may as well vote Pee Wee Herman in.

[Flubber]

Garth

just curious but was the voting guide on some more leftist site?? While there is positives and negatives about everyone, it seems to be more strongly criticizing the conservatives

[Flubber]

Clever

Anyone that understands a bit about chess and Canadian poilitics should appreciate this.

Posted by Erik Malmsten on January 21, 2006, 18:59:43


This is going to be an exciting election as there is a shift in the playing area. While the Queen's Pawn Opening has been the most popular for the past 12 years, the King's Pawn Opening is coming back into popularity.
Many players have found the Queen's Pawn Opening to be stagnant, not achieving anything new, just shuffling the pieces around, drawish. The Queen's Pawn Opening winning record isn't enough so they keep promising new things, stealing ideas from the left and right, but if they really believed in them they would have already tried them. Everyone has seen their moves. The King's Pawn Opening has come on aggressively, accusing the Queen's Pawn Opening of lying, that the Queen's Gambit isn't a gambit at all. The Queen's Pawn Opening responded by going through the King's Pawn database and pointing out past bad moves, and asking if players really want to risk opening up their kingside?

The King's Pawn's Opening has been reinvigorated by incorporating ideas learned from more right-wing openings. The Grob's Opening was focussed on rapid development and giving lots of space for the white-squared bishop. But people used to the centre found that opening bizarre so the Bird's Opening was promoted. That gave the King some breathing room but people could still see that it wasn't really a centralist opening. Now being the King's Pawn Opening can please those comfortable with the centre and keep players alert by threatening right-side advancement. They support the traditional principle of a Queen attacking a King, rather than trading Queens with equality. They want to increase the rewards for those who invest in expansion, increase the penalties to those who break the rules, and decrease the rating fees. Although they haven't liked some of the rulings of the arbiters appointed by the Queen's Pawn Opening, they are willing to work with them.

On the other side of the board Larsen's Opening is trying to be a major opening. They have evolved from the Polish Opening, being more cautious. They claim that they can influence the centre with a left-side minority. If strong enough, they can work with the Queen's Pawn Opening to become the English. They have been accused of wasting effort supporting weak pawns rather than major pieces. Like the Grob's Opening they originated with giving space to a bishop, but a left-wing bishop is a lot different than a right-wing one. It tries to be supportive and compassionate about what goes on the board, and is less used in mating attacks.

The Stonewall/ French Defence doesn't care what the other openings do, as long as they can maintain their formation.

The Green-Square System has a different perspective. They are not going to win any openings but want players to move cautiously, constantly look for alternatives, and think of the long-term consequences. What will the endgame be like? They think those that waste moves should be punished.

On the edges of the board are the fringe openings. On the left-side, 1. a3 and a4 no longer receive funding from the Soviet School of Chess but are still around. On the right-side, the Chess Heritage Opening 1. h3 wants to go back to the days of slower time controls, Descriptive Notation, and black and white boards.

The Marihuana System finds all moves amusing and want the right to grow their own openings.

No longer registered are the Natural Law Opening, which claimed that they could levitate the pieces upwards, and the Rhinoceros which just enjoyed knocking over all the pieces.

Whatever the merits, each player only gets to choose one and the clock is ticking.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, here's my riding by riding prediction again. Not too different from the last one, but a few differences here and there.

QUEBEC

Montreal:

BQ Safe

Alfred-Pellan
Hochelaga
La Pointe-de-L'Ile
Laurier-Sainte-Marie
Laval
Marc-Aurele-Fortin
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

BQ Marginal

Ahuntsic
Papineau
Honore-Mercier
Jeanne-Le Ber
Outremont
Laval-Les-Iles
Bourassa

LIB Safe

Lac-Saint Louis
Mount Royal
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine
Pierrefonds-Dollard
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel
Westmount-Ville Marie

LIB Marginal

La Salle-Emard

Total:

BQ 14
LIB 8

North:

BQ Safe

Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Abitibi-Temiscamingue
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Joliette
Jonquiere-Alma
Laurentides-Labelle
Manicouagan
Montcalm
Riviere-du-Nord
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean

Total:

BQ 10

South St. Lawrence:

BQ Safe

Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Chambly-Bourduas
Chateauguay-Saint Constant
Compton-Stanstead
Drummond
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine
Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia
Levis-Bellechasse
Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
Megantic-L'Erable
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup
Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
Saint-Jean
Saint-Lambert
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Vercheres-Les Patriotes

BQ Marginal

Brome-Missiquoi
Brossard-La Prairie

CON Marginal

Beauce
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
Richmond-Arthabaska

Total:

BQ 22
CON 3

North St. Lawrence:

BQ Safe

Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
Beauport-Limoilou
Berthier-Maskinonge
Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
Louis Hebert
Montmorency-Chalevoix-Haute-Cote-Nord
Quebec
Reptigny
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles
Saint Maurice-Champlain-Terrebonne-Blainville
Trois-Rivieres
Vaudreuil-Soulanges

BQ Marginal

Gatineau
Hull-Aylmer

CON Marginal

Louis-Saint-Laurent
Pontiac
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Totals:

BQ 15
CON 3

QUEBEC TOTALS:

BQ 61
LIB 8
CON 6

[Ben Kenobi]

ATLANTIC CANADA

Newfoundland:

Con Safe

St. John's East
St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Con Marginal

Avalon
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor

Lib Safe

Labrador
Random-Burin-St. George's
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte

Totals:

CON 4
LIB 3

PEI:

LIB Safe

Cardigan
Egmont
Malpeque
Charlottetown

Totals:

LIB 4

Nova Scotia:

CON Safe

Central Nova
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
South Shore-St. Margaret's

Con Marginal

Kings Hant
West Nova

LIB Safe

Cape Breton-Canso
Sydney Victoria
Halifax West

LIB Marginal

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

NDP Safe

Halifax
Sackville-Eastern Shore

Totals:

CON 5
LIB 4
NDP 2

New Brunswick:

CON Safe

Fundy Royal
New Brunswick SouthWest

CON Marginal

Saint John
Tobique-Mactaquac
Madawaska-Restigouche
Fredericton

LIB Safe

Beausejour
Miramichi
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

NDP Safe

Acadie-Bathurst

Totals:

CON 6
LIB 3
NDP 1

TOTALS ATLANTIC CANADA

CON 15
LIB 14
NDP 3

[Garth Vader]

Originally posted by Flubber
Garth

just curious but was the voting guide on some more leftist site?? While there is positives and negatives about everyone, it seems to be more strongly criticizing the conservatives

Yeah, pretty much. It was on a blog site and the guy who wrote it may not be a real lefty, but doesn't like the Conservatives.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Asher
You can't be serious?

I'm quite serious. My vote isn't for a win, it's for respect and funding for the only party with a 21st century playbook. Strategic voting is for chumps.

[Asher]

Does the 21st century playbook involve running 18 year old highschool dropouts as candidates?

[Flubber]

Ben

I agree with your take on Newfoundland. If the conservatives win the Rock 4-3 that would be considered a big victory.

It would be a REAL big shocker if they could take a seat in PEI-- I think those islanders only allow one party LOL

Splitting Atlantic Canada would be a true victory for the Conservatives and would allow them to have decent eastern representation.

Hopefully they win a few seats in Queebec so that they can then boast a national presence