CanPol: Race to the Finish

[joncha]

BK's wet dream scenario is starting to actually look possible, and now he's sceptical!

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Agreed. But the folks who disagree, this is just another example of how out of touch the SCoC is with what Canadians desire.

I still don't see what constitutional principles they base their decision on, other then libertarianism, that so long as we don't think anyone is being hurt, we should permit swinger clubs. They don't argue that Canadians are deprived for not having them, or that this is the right thing to do.

and why would they? There are many things that are not the "right thing to do" which are not criminal.

Thats what we are talking about here. Was the actions of the people in that club criminal ( and it would be all the people there since being "found in" a bawdy house is a crime. I just don't see what they were doing as a crime.

Now if town after town wants to use zoning and business rules to prevent such a business from being in their neighborhoods, I have no problem with that

[Flubber]

Originally posted by joncha
BK's wet dream scenario is starting to actually look possible, and now he's sceptical!

Of course he is. If something looks better than you ever imagined, you start to wonder. This campaign started with the Libs in the lead and it seemed the scandals had not stuck -- as that time, the Cons would have been ecstatic to get one more seat than the LIbs. mere weeks later its lookign like the Libs could get bounced decisively

It seems to good to be true for the Conservatives so they are not taking anything for granted

[Ben Kenobi]

BK's wet dream scenario is starting to actually look possible, and now he's sceptical!

I've been running the numbers for the last while, still not finished my analysis based on the numbers from this poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/ELXN_strategic_poll_060110/20060110?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

Conservatives lead in every region of the country, except for Quebec, where they are behind only the Bloc.

CON 139
LIB 85
BQ 65
NDP 14

Based on the poll data, but I haven't finished doing a riding by riding analysis yet.

[Ben Kenobi]

Quebec:

LIB 7
CON 3
BQ 65

LIB seats

Mont Royal
St. Laurent-Cartierville
Lac Saint Louis
Saint Leonard-Saint Michel
Pierrefond-Dollard
La Salle Emard
Westmount-Ville Marie

CON

Notre Dame-de-Grace-Lachine
Pontiac
Louis St. Laurent

BQ marginals:

Bourassa
Laval-Les-Iles
Hull Aylmer
Beauce
Outrement
Portneuf

The strange result is that the poll numbers say they have a better chance, given the Liberal collapse in Notre-Dame-de Grace-Lachine, but I don't know whether to believe that result or not.

So I think it would be safer to say that Notre Dame will stay Liberal, and drop the Bloc down one as the Conservatives take Beauce.

The poll still has Martin squeaking out in La Salle Emard, thanks to the little bit of a drop in the Bloc.

[Ben Kenobi]

Unless things change drastically in Ontario, this is how I figure it will work out,

LIB 46
CON 55
NDP 5

Ontario, it would be the same result as I had earlier, however these are the ridings that should also come into play.

Ottawa South
Ottawa Orleans
Glengarry Prescott Russell
Newmarket Aurora

Haven't gone through the rest yet to figure out which ridings should go liberal if the NDP support drops.

[KrazyHorse]

Notre Dame will stay Liberal

Yes it will.

Duh.

[Asher]

Stephen Harper auditioning for Brokeback Mountain:

[Ninot]

Ben, i forgot the name of the riding, but theres 1 you have missing there for the Liberals, I'm pretty sure.

Conservatives are working hard. I saw them all over downtown Montreal today.

[Ninot]

Looked it up.

Unless something shocking happens, Brossard--La Prairie will go Liberal.

[Ben Kenobi]

Shocking?

Not really. The Liberals nearly lost Brossard La Prairie last election to the Bloc. I don't think they are going to hold onto any seats they barely squeaked out with last time.

In fact the Liberal numbers are so bad, that many of these seats aren't even appearing as Bloc marginals.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Shocking?

Not really. The Liberals nearly lost Brossard La Prairie last election to the Bloc. I don't think they are going to hold onto any seats they barely squeaked out with last time.

In fact the Liberal numbers are so bad, that many of these seats aren't even appearing as Bloc marginals.

Ben

Is your methodology to apply the provincial swing in the polls on a riding by riding basis on the assumption that a provincial change of support will be felt proportionally in all ridiings??

If so that sounds like a reasonable method but it would fail in any riding where there is an overriding spcific issue influencing voting or if there is an exceptional candidate (either good or bad)

[Flinx]

Well Said!

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Jon, what you have to understand is that Canada uses the Conservatives to take a breather from Liberal hegemony every decade or so.

This balance was greatly disturbed by Mulroney, who managed to hold on to majority governments for a very Liberalesque 9 years from 1984 to 1993. The hatred that accrued for the Conservatives during this period very nearly destroyed the Conservatives, and with them any hope for their capability to restore the body politic to harmony after every Liberal dynasty. The Conservatives broke into two, with the right wing of the party gaining more political influence than the centrist portion. The right wing then gobbled up the centrist portion. All seemed to be lost. Then, as time went on, the new Conservatives gradually began to gravitate toward what the old Conservatives had been: a slightly more rightist, less successful version of the Liberals. Balance will be restored at some point in the near future (either this election or the next one) when the reborn Conservatives will rise from the ashes of the party of Mulroney like a phoenix and take their rightful place at the head of Canada's government.

For 15 minutes. Until Canada realises that we like the Liberals more than the Conservatives again.

And the cycle will begin anew. As it was in the beginning, is now and ever shall be. In nomine patri et filio et spiritu sancto. Amen.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Flubber
Federally Canada has essentially two parties that ever have a shot at governing . The bulk of the provinces are the same although there have been periodic NDP governments in some provinces and you also have the one-party situation of Alberta (actually IIRC there are 4 parties with MLAs but only the Conservatives ever govern)

In BC there are only two parties the NDP and the Liberals (and it was the NDP and Social Credit before that). In Saskatchewan it is the NDP and The Saskatchewan Party (the NDP and Progressive Conservative Party before that). In Manitoba it is the NDP and Progressive Conservative Party. In Nova Scotia the NDP, Liberal Party and Progressive Conservative Party have been in a three way battle for the last three elections.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Flinx

In BC there are only two parties the NDP and the Liberals (and it was the NDP and Social Credit before that). In Saskatchewan it is the NDP and The Saskatchewan Party (the NDP and Progressive Conservative Party before that). In Manitoba it is the NDP and Progressive Conservative Party. In Nova Scotia the NDP, Liberal Party and Progressive Conservative Party have been in a three way battle for the last three elections.

Thanks-- for providing the details confirming my point

IN some of those provinces , there has been an evolution-- the viability of the NDP in NS for example after years when they knew 3rd place was their destiny. But in most, you have had the same general alliances into two viable ( in the sense of winning in the conceivable future) parties for years. A third party may rise to prominence but then it essentially either fades in importance or supplants one of the top 2.