Are you ready for some FOOTBALL - Final Regular Season Week

[Jaguar]

Go, Sava, go!

[snoopy369]

I'd say a high negative turnover differential means your defense gives up less yards, in fact.

a) their offense has to go less far to score, meaning lower yardage allowed
b) they get ahead 35-0 or something and put in the second team

Take it to its extreme: every time you get the ball, for the first 10 posessions, you fumble the kickoff on the 5.

Every time, the other team scores on one play.

70-0, 50 yards of total offense.

After that I bet you hold them to a measly 120 total game yards of offense ...

[Sava]

Originally posted by snoopy369
I'd say a high negative turnover differential means your defense gives up less yards, in fact.

a) their offense has to go less far to score, meaning lower yardage allowed
b) they get ahead 35-0 or something and put in the second team

Take it to its extreme: every time you get the ball, for the first 10 posessions, you fumble the kickoff on the 5.

Every time, the other team scores on one play.

70-0, 50 yards of total offense.

After that I bet you hold them to a measly 120 total game yards of offense ...

Well, it's not quite as simple as that.

There can be just as many bad defenses that give the ball up on offense as well. St. Louis and San Fran for example.

Generally, teams with good defenses should have higher positive turnover differential because of their defenses, but this is not always the case because the turnover differential does depend on what the offense does.

That's why there is not always a direct correlation between turnover differential and good total defense (yardage allowed). Look at the Cincinnati Bengals for instance. +25 as a team for turnovers, but their defense is not very strong... 22nd in the NFL (yardage allowed) and just about 5 yards per game worse and they could be 27th.

However, doing a study on drive charts as it relates to how turnovers and how they affect overall yardage totals would be very interesting.

[Jaguar]

Cincinatti defense is not weak. Cincinatti's defense, not its offense, is the primary reason for the huge turnover differential. The defense might allow lots of yards and points, but it does actually force turnovers. Turnovers are not luck, as some people seem to think.

The average team as of week 16 gives the ball away 26 times and takes it away 26 times. The Bengals have 18 giveaways, eight less than average, but 43 takeaways, 17 more than average.

It's OK for the Bengals to give up a lot of yardage. Their offense moves the ball easily, so they don't care about field position as much as, for example, the Bears do.

[reismark]

Bush and Leinart will go 1-2, though it wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets ransom the rest of their draft to Houston to trade up and get Bush as the heir to Curtis Martin. Leinart's definitely headed for New Orleans, though - it's clear they've given up on Brooks (and for good reason) and they do need a QB as a result.

[Jaguar]

Both quarterbacks have had good seasons. One could easily make the case that Young is the better QB.


Leinart:
254/391 for 3450 yds, 27 TD, 7 INT, 158.29 rating (college system)

Young:
182/285 for 2769 yds, 26 TD, 10 INT, 168.56 rating


Young has fewer attempts than Leinart does, so his total numbers are lower for yards and touchdowns. He's better in yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and completion percentage.

Also, Young is by far the better scrambler.

Leinart: 45 rushes for 34 yards, 6 touchdowns
Young: 136 rushes for 850 yards, 9 touchdowns


Leinart is not by any means guaranteed to be the first QB picked. It's likely, though.

[snoopy369]

Aggressive defenses give up yards in exchange for more turnovers. It's rare for a defense to be both extremely high in takeaways and extremely tight in yards allowed; the Bears of this year were 6th in takeaways going into today's game, and 1st in total yards. Only Carolina - 2nd in takeaways, 4th in total defense (yards) - was similarly highly ranked. IIRC the only way you usually get a high ranking in both areas is if you're playing a cover-2 type defense, *and* have a great run covering linebacking crew. (Cover 2 means more INTs, and run-covering LBs means you don't give up as many yards.)

[snoopy369]

QB wise, i'd ask - what sort of factors make a good college QB into a good pro QB? I'm not sure on this one, but i'll list some 'common perceptions' - feel free to object to them with statistics, or support them with statistics.

* offensive style - QBs in a pro-like offense in college usually do better in the pros [because of an easier transition]
* passing style - QBs who are asked to throw more deep routes do better in the pros [because they obviously are capable of doing so, or they'd not be considered good]
* Surrounding players - QBs who play with a good WR in college often do better in the pros [?]
* Opposition - QBs who play in good conferences (Big 10, Big 12, etc.) tend to be better [because they've seen the bigger, stronger opposition and still prevailed]

[Sava]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Cincinatti defense is not weak. Cincinatti's defense, not its offense, is the primary reason for the huge turnover differential. The defense might allow lots of yards and points, but it does actually force turnovers. Turnovers are not luck, as some people seem to think.

The average team as of week 16 gives the ball away 26 times and takes it away 26 times. The Bengals have 18 giveaways, eight less than average, but 43 takeaways, 17 more than average.

It's OK for the Bengals to give up a lot of yardage. Their offense moves the ball easily, so they don't care about field position as much as, for example, the Bears do.

Luck plays a large part in turnovers.

And WTF are you talking about?

Cincinnati's offense leads the league in fewest fumbles... tied with Seattle (6). And Carson Palmer has thrown only 12 INT's this year.

They are 4th in the NFL in fewest giveaways.

Yes, they lead the NFL in takeaways, a credit to their defense.

But lets examine their INT total. 31.

5 came in week 2 against Culpepper (who has sucked horribly this year)
5 came in week 3 against Kyle Orton in his 3rd career start.
5 came against Brett Favre in week 8 (who is retiring)
3 in week 15 against Jeff Garcia (who has a 65 passer rating)

that's 18 right there that are probably more the fault of the QB and less attributed to the defense...

Cincinnati's defense is also 19th in the league in points allowed.

Turnovers are good... but they are not the only way to judge how great a defense is.

When a team is below half the teams in the NFL in both points allowed and total yardage allowed, it's safe to say their defense is weak and vulnerable.

However, that still doesn't mean that they don't have a secondary that is capable of intercepting the ball. It's just that they give up a lot of yards.

[Jaguar]

Takeaways/giveaways is 43/18. Average is 26/26. The 43, the takeaway number, is the one that jumps out as exceptional, not the 18.


The turnovers caused by Cincinatti are both the fault of the quarterback and a credit to the defense.


Brett Favre has only twice thrown 5+ interceptions in his career, the longest ever streak as a QB starter. Once was against a ballhawk St Louis defense the year they got to the Superbowl and lost. Once was against the Bengals.

Culpepper threw 11 interceptions in 7 games. 5 were against the Bengals. Garcia has thrown six interceptions in 6 games, three of which were against the Bengals.

Orton has thrown 13 interceptions in 14 games. 5 were against the Bengals.

They account for half of these QBs' total interceptions. If the quarterbacks are so horrible, how come they don't throw five interceptions against other teams?



A great defense can stop the pass and the run and create turnovers, but few teams can do all three. It's arguable which elements are most important for the goal of winning, but the Bengals work well with an aggressive, turnover-producing defense. So do the Colts. Other defenses, like the Bucs, focus on stopping the opponent instead. Both methods can be successful.

[Sava]

If the quarterbacks are so horrible, how come they don't throw five interceptions against other teams?

Because Cincinnati has a good offense which puts them ahead of those teams... forcing their opponents to pass more... WHICH LEADS TO MORE INTERCEPTIONS.

Are you actually arguing that those QB's are good (this year)?

Culpepper was having an awful year, the Bengals game not withstanding.

Kyle Orton is the worst rated passer in the NFL (starters). Garcia has also been bad, 65 passer rating.

Favre is on the downside of his career, probably just played his last game, and is notorious for forcing the ball into situations where he shouldn't. Favre also only needs 23 more interceptions to be the all time leader in interceptions.

[Sava]

Originally posted by Jaguar



A great defense can stop the pass and the run and create turnovers, but few teams can do all three.

Exactly.

And a team that can only do one... specifically get turnovers, the one that relies mostly on luck, and in Cincinnati's case, has been mainly result of BAD QUARTERBACK PLAY... that defense, would be considered weak.

If you want to believe the dillusion that Cincinnati has anything but a weak defense that has been able to get a lot of interceptions, then be my guest.

I'm just trying to save you the embarassment of when you try to share your opinion to people more knowledgeable about football than yourself.

[Jonny]

Originally posted by Jaguar
* Jaguar points and laughs at Jonny.

It's been that kind of day. First the Titans suck, then the Preds suck. Not to mention that our seats were somehow surrounded by Ducks...people... when there couldn't have been more than a couple of hundred of them in the entire stadium.


At least the Titans are done. If I were the owner, people would be getting fired tonight.


And I rest happy, knowing that the Colts simply can't win the big game.


GO BEARS

[Zopperoni]

What a weekend to look forward to!

The Patriots will host the Jaguars, the Steelers will visit the Bengals, the Redskins will travel to Tampa, and the Giants will face the Panthers!

[Imran Siddiqui]

So again... having a high negative turnover differentials doesn't really affect your yardage allowed as a defense. It just means that YOUR OFFENSE IS TURNING THE BALL OVER.

Which means that the opposing offense has more chances of moving the ball down the field against your defense than if you hadn't turned the ball over. Now that's not always true, since you can turn the ball over on 3rd and long, where you may just kick the ball to the other squad anyway. However, if you toss a lot of ints while driving or at the beginning of a drive, you are giving the other offense an oppertunity that it may not otherwise have had. And your defense is going to go right back on the field instead of getting a longer rest.

If you give up a lot of turnovers, your defense is going to be on the field much longer than it should and tiring defenses give up yardage and points.

There are a few that don't, like Baltimore's fabulous defense. But that sort of time on the field takes a toll on a defense.