Election 2005

[Zkribbler]

[Jaguar]

I keep abreast of politics, and I stayed in tune with the VA race for quite a bit. I saw the ads first-hand when I was back on the east coast for a few weeks. I have family in that area and discussed this stuff with them many, many times. Am I as involved personally? No, but that in no way renders what I'm saying wrong, nor you more right.

For the upteenth time, I have no doubt Kilgore's ads hurt him, but the reason I think there is a larger trend at work is due to the other races tending ever so slightly Dem. This comes on top of a general slight tend towards the Dems in VA over the years, and a large number of political experts who increasingly see VA moving into a swing state position in the not-so-distant future.

All you've offered to counter that are some bald-assed assertions, dismissal of points sans real argument and now a "shut up, you ignorant outsider!" comment. Brilliant.

Newspapers all over the Washington area rebuked Kilgore for his advertisements. Their news pages refuted them, with articles bearing headlines like "Kilgore's Gas Tax Claim in New Ad is Unfounded." Meanwhile the editorials criticized them. The WP called Kilgore's DP ad a "contemptible assault", most message boards were quick to call it an invocation of Godwin's Law.

Forgive me if "a large number of [unnamed] political experts" agree with you, but I'm unconvinced that a slight Democratic victory over an absolutely incompetent opponent proves anything.

As I said before, I don't necessarily deny a general trend leftward in Virginia. It's resembling its Northern neighbor more and more. But the governor race this year is a horrible example to prove that trend. You're widening the debate and setting up a strawman, and I am unimpressed.

[DanS]

I don't know all the ins and outs of the argument as presented throughout this thread, but note that Virginia is still a solidly red state, even though it has always been a little fickle (as I think any state should be, in order to keep the parties in line). If the GOP puts forward strong candidates who campaign competently, it should most often sweep the statewide races.

[ajbera]

I've heard "pundits" say Arnold should have limited himself to one, maybe two propositions, perhaps the redistricting and union dues props. I don't know why the redistricting prop failed, as redistricting along party lines is pretty weaselly, from either the Right or the Left.

But the people made themselves heard, and that's what's important. Democracy

[lord of the mark]

Kaine in Viriginia

The ads had a lot to do with it. If anything else was a big factor, it was probably the general sense that Warner had gotten VA back on track, after budget crises under the GOP, and that Kaine was part of that. Which would also be consistent with a win for Kaine, loss for Byrne, and dead heat in the AG race.

I did hear on TV that heavy turnout in black sections of Richmond was motivated by general angst with national GOP. I really doubt thats what was driving things here in NoVa, though.

Virginia COULD be open to a national Dem, who was perceived as centrist as Warner or Kaine. Thats a change from say, 1996, when Clinton lost despite being such a Dem. But its hard to say if its really a change from 2004, given that there was no such candidate on the ballot.

Of course all thats beside the point if either Mark Warner, or George Allen, are on the national ballot in 2008.

I dont expect any changes in our congressional delegation in 2006.

[DinoDoc]

Why is Prop 75 vile? Or even 77 for that matter?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


All political ads are terrible. I've see candidates get elected with terrible ads/positions/etc. all the time. Case in point: Oklahoma Senate race in 2004.

.

This aint Oklahoma. I cant recall seeing ads this over the top.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Jaguar


As I said before, I don't necessarily deny a general trend leftward in Virginia. It's resembling its Northern neighbor more and more. But the governor race this year is a horrible example to prove that trend..

QFT

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by ajbera
I've heard "pundits" say Arnold should have limited himself to one, maybe two propositions, perhaps the redistricting and union dues props. I don't know why the redistricting prop failed, as redistricting along party lines is pretty weaselly, from either the Right or the Left.

But the people made themselves heard, and that's what's important. Democracy

All props went down to blazing defeats...including the one notifying parents that their daughters were going to have abortions (with a judicial exemption), the two prescription-drug-price reduction bills, and the bill to take us back to pre-deregulation of energy.

My guess is that most voters hated the very idea of the special election and so voted "no" on everything.

The more of the havoc I see caused by the proposition process, the less democractic (small "D") I become and the more republican (small "R"). I can see perhaps having referrendums to test the public will, but lawmaking should be made by the lawmakers.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov

Why? If a traditionally "red" state that is unquestionably seeing a large influx of more "urbanite" voters like VA is seeing in it's North, it's valid to consider such election results might be part of a general trend. Democrats have been slowly increasing their vote share in VA over the years.

im not sure the red vs blue model really fits whats happening in NoVa. Some folks in the telecom industry, but a heckuva lot more in the defense contractor industry, who dont share the cultural concerns of the rural areas (though some actually do), but who are hardly Massachusetts types on cultural issues, and certainly not on national security issues.

But then Im not sure "red vs blue" is all that useful generally.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
It's amazing that Kilgore's running so heavily on illegals immigrants. I mean it's VA; how many can y'all possibly have? Hell, it's hispanic population can't be more than a few percent.

Theres huge numbers of them, esp in the less influent inner suburbs (the ones where the houses are old, and have 2 or fewer bathrooms per house) And while there are hardly any outside NoVa (AFAIK) it certainly scares some folks elsewhere.

[lord of the mark]

one more thing on Kaine.

Religion and ideology interacted interestingly. Kilgore attacked Kaine for his personal views on the DP. Kaine responded by reminding folks this is based in his Roman Catholicism - IE he used it as a chance to remind folks that he believes in God, and takes his religion seriously. (he went on mission in Central America in his youth, IIUC) I dont think THAT hurt him, anywhere in the commonwealth.

BTW, Kaine is Virginia's first Catholic Governor in history, IIUC.

[Admiral]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Theres huge numbers of them, esp in the less influent inner suburbs (the ones where the houses are old, and have 2 or fewer bathrooms per house) And while there are hardly any outside NoVa (AFAIK) it certainly scares some folks elsewhere.

I actually feel that it scares more people outside of NoVa than in it. People are generally afraid of what they don't know. This is why the states that ban gay marriage are generally the states with the smallest percentage of gays.

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by Admiral
I actually feel that it scares more people outside of NoVa than in it. People are generally afraid of what they don't know. This is why the states that ban gay marriage are generally the states with the smallest percentage of gays.

I don't know about that. I don't know if "scare" is the right word (concerned is the better word, IMO), but if so then I know plenty of Northern Virginians who are "scared". The millionaires in Fairfax and Arlington don't have to worry about things, but take a trip to the working class areas of Northern Virginia, places like Manassas. I can understand why people would be concerned, especially with the MS-13 activity.

The thing that interested me in this election were the claims that the Democrats want in-state tuition for illegal aliens. I'm a Maryland resident, but I attend a Virginia public school. (Virginia has some of the best public universities in the country). I've paid tens of thousands of dollars more in tuition than the Virginians simply because my I was born and raised 40 miles outside of the Virginia borders. I'll be beyond enraged if illegals become eligible for in-state tuition. I don't think it will happen even with the Kaine victory, but it was an issue that definately made me wary of Kaine and Byrne.

[Ramo]

We're talking about kids who lived in VA for years, graduated VA high schools, etc. (going by other states' bills) If you were in that situation, you would be VA resident and be eligible for in-state tuition. Quit whining.

Why is Prop 75 vile?

It adds needless union bureaucracy, without imposing analagous restrictions on corporate fundraising. It's designed to add even more asymmetry between the electoral contributions of labor and capital.

Or even 77 for that matter?

It isn't. I supported 77, and am disappointed that Cali Dems didn't as well.